Data flash: Canada's Q1 GDP posted second straight (although small) decline

Forward Guidance: Canada’s GDP growth likely turned positive in Q1 after Q4 contraction

The desk posits that Canada’s GDP growth rebounded in Q1 after a contraction in Q4, as suggested by the latest RBC Economics report. This positive shift is supported by anticipations of economic resilience amid global economic pressures, thereby setting a foundation for potential currency strength. Per the full note, the expectation is that growth likely printed a positive figure, contrasting with Q4’s downturn. As traders assess these data points, any deviation from anticipated growth could impact market sentiment.

Forward Guidance: Expect Canada’s unemployment rate to tick lower in May

US Week Ahead: Jobs report in focus as the labor market holds its ground

Insight—Canada’s housing markets get busier in May

The desk views the recent uptick in Canada's housing market as a cautiously optimistic sign amid continued price corrections in key regions. Per the full note by RBC Economics, while provinces like Ontario and British Columbia are seeing declines, markets in the Prairies, Quebec, and Atlantic Canada are experiencing more balanced conditions that support price stability. Institutional traders should consider that despite a rise in activity in cities like Winnipeg and Regina, overall soft resales indicate underlying caution within the market. This dynamic could affect CAD performance against major pairs in the coming weeks.