The Brief
USD Bid Dominates; EUR/USD Bears in Consensus, GBP at Risk on UK Political Flux
Consensus has shifted decisively USD-bullish across the past 24 hours. Credit Agricole cites persistent rate differentials favouring USD on EUR/USD; Danske Bank targets 1.13 on a six-month horizon with the pair currently pressured near 1.1450. ING flags a test of 1.1400 before any recovery. On sterling, Credit Agricole turns bearish on GBP/USD should Burnham succeed Starmer, while Citi remains outright short GBP despite the brief relief rally. Deutsche Bank highlights Fed Governor Warsh signalling a tighter path, reinforcing USD support.
The Signal
Long-dated HUF/USD is where the Street disagrees most
Across 93 sell-side forecasts at the 12-month horizon, dispersion runs at 8.5% — the loudest bucket on the board today.
Three Doors
Open the data behind the brief.
Free PDF · June 2026
Weekly Bank Consensus Snapshot
Cross-firm year-end forecasts for the G10 majors. One page. Email required.
This Week in Research
Latest from the desks
Pillars
Across Banks
USD/MXN: Spot at 17.34, Consensus Targets 17.90 by Dec-2026
USD/MXN trades 3.15% below the 19-firm Dec-2026 consensus of 17.90, with a 2.20-figure dispersion reflecting sharply divided views on Banxico's easing path.
usdmxn banxicoRead →
USD/KRW: Spot at 1529.89, Consensus Targets 1380 by Dec-26
USD/KRW trades 10.86% above the 18-firm Dec-26 consensus of 1380, with a 180-point spread separating the most and least bearish desks.
usdkrw bokRead →USD/INR at 94.31: Consensus Targets 86.5 by Dec-2026
USD/INR trades at 94.31, some 9% above the 18-firm Dec-2026 consensus of 86.5, with a 10.5-point spread separating the most and least bearish calls.
usdinr rbiRead →GBP/USD Consensus Targets 1.35 by Dec-2026, Spot Sits 1.97% Below
Cable trades at 1.3235 against a 21-firm median Dec-2026 target of 1.35, a 1.97% gap that hinges on the relative pace of BoE versus Fed easing.
gbp cableRead →USD/TRY: 18-Firm Consensus at 50.25, ING–UBS Spread Hits 12.80
USD/TRY spot at 46.44 sits 7.57% below the Dec-2026 consensus of 50.25, with a 12.80-point ING–UBS dispersion marking the widest forecast spread in EM FX.
usdtry tcmbRead →Three EM FX Trades Desks Are Pushing Into Dec-2026
With live spot and cross-firm consensus data unavailable, EM FX positioning in June 2026 hinges on macro thesis and carry rather than tight target convergence.
em fxRead →USD/JPY at 161.25: Consensus Targets 148.0 by Dec-2026
USD/JPY trades at 161.25, nearly 9% above the 22-firm Dec-2026 consensus of 148.0, with a 24-point dispersion that reflects sharply divided BoJ and US rate-path assumptions.
usdjpy bojRead →NZD/USD Trades 3.9% Below 0.60 Consensus as RBNZ-Fed Gap Widens
NZD/USD spot at 0.5768 sits 3.87% below the 19-firm Dec-26 median of 0.60, with an 0.08 range separating ANZ's 0.64 bull case from Citi's 0.56 floor.
nzdusd rbnzRead →USD/CHF at 0.7921: Consensus Targets 0.78 by Dec-2026
USD/CHF trades at 0.7921, roughly 1.55% above the 19-firm Dec-2026 consensus of 0.78, with a 0.09 spread separating Citi's 0.83 bull case from StanChart's 0.74 floor.
usdchf snbRead →EUR/USD Trades 3.3% Below Dec-26 Consensus of 1.20
EUR/USD spot at 1.1609 sits 3.26% below a 24-firm median Dec-26 target of 1.20, with a 0.18 dispersion range flagging unusually wide disagreement.
eurusd divergenceRead →DXY Consensus, June 2026: No Targets, No Divergence — Yet
With zero firms reporting Dec-2026 DXY targets and spot data unavailable, consensus is formally neutral — leaving the index without a quantifiable divergence point.
dxy trendRead →USD/BRL Consensus at 5.10 for Dec-2026, Spot Trades 0.77% Below
USD/BRL spot at 5.0608 sits 0.77% below the 19-firm Dec-2026 median of 5.10, with a 1.20-figure dispersion separating BNP Paribas from ING.
usdbrl bcbRead →WTI June 2026: OPEC+ Discipline, Shale Costs, and the China Demand Question
No cross-firm consensus is available for WTI Dec-2026, leaving the outlook hostage to three unresolved structural debates: OPEC+ cohesion, US shale break-evens, and Chinese demand recovery.
oil supply shockRead →USD/ZAR Consensus Targets 16.175 by Dec-2026 as Spot Trades 0.85% Above
USD/ZAR spot at 16.312 sits 0.85% above the 18-firm Dec-2026 consensus of 16.175, with a 2.5-point dispersion signalling deep regime disagreement.
usdzar sarbRead →AUD/USD at 0.7010: Consensus Targets 0.71 by Dec-2026, Spread Hits 0.10
AUD/USD trades at 0.7010, 1.27% below the 20-firm Dec-2026 consensus of 0.71, with a 0.10 dispersion range signalling deep disagreement on China and RBA timing.
audusd rbaRead →
USD/CAD at 1.3933: Consensus Targets 1.35 by Dec-2026
USD/CAD spot sits 3.21% above the 20-firm Dec-2026 consensus of 1.35, with a 0.10 dispersion range signalling meaningful disagreement on the BoC-Fed gap.
usdcad bocRead →FX BANK FORECAST · COVERAGE
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Aggregated year-end forecasts, scenario shifts, and curated analyst notes from eight institutional desks. No promotion.