FX BANK FORECAST · COVERAGE
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Aggregated year-end forecasts, scenario shifts, and curated analyst notes from 37 institutional desks. No promotion.
FX BANK FORECAST · COVERAGE
Aggregated year-end forecasts, scenario shifts, and curated analyst notes from 37 institutional desks. No promotion.
The Signal
Across 17 sell-side forecasts at the 12-month horizon, dispersion runs at 7.7% — the loudest bucket on the board today.
Three Doors
Open the data behind the brief.
This Week in Research
Pillars
Across Banks
USD/ZAR trades 2.63% above the 17-firm median Dec-26 target of 16.10, with a 2.5-point dispersion range signalling meaningful disagreement on the rand's trajectory.
USD/JPY trades at 158.13, roughly 2.68% above the 24-firm Dec-26 consensus of 154.0, with a 25.5-point dispersion signalling deep disagreement on the BoJ-Fed spread.
usdjpy bojRead →USD/KRW trades 3.05% below the 17-firm median Dec-26 target of 1380, with a 180-point dispersion range signalling unusually wide regime disagreement.
usdkrw bokRead →USD/CAD trades 5.34% above the 25-firm Dec-2026 consensus of 1.35, with a 0.11 dispersion range signalling meaningful disagreement on the BoC-Fed path.
usdcad bocRead →Across six tracked EM pairs, consensus is broadly neutral into December 2026, but INR and ZAR carry the widest spot-to-target gaps and the sharpest dispersion.
em fxRead →USD/TRY trades at 49.18, 2.6% below the 17-firm Dec-26 consensus of 50.5, with a 12.8-point dispersion that is among the widest in EM FX.
usdtry tcmbRead →USD/BRL spot sits 2.16% below the 18-firm median Dec-26 target of 5.10, with a 1.20-figure dispersion signalling deep disagreement on fiscal and carry dynamics.
usdbrl bcbRead →EUR/USD spot at 1.1243 sits 3.36% below the 30-firm Dec-26 consensus of 1.1634, with a 0.155 dispersion range signalling deep disagreement on the path ahead.
eurusd divergenceRead →XAU/USD spot at $4,146.6 sits 10.83% below the 11-firm Dec-2026 median of $4,650, with a $2,150 dispersion signalling deep disagreement on the gold outlook.
gold vs real ratesRead →USD/CHF trades at 0.8316, roughly 6.6% above the 20-firm median Dec-26 target of 0.78, with bearish consensus facing an unresolved safe-haven and SNB policy overhang.
usdchf snbRead →USD/CAD trades at 1.4272, roughly 5.72% above the 25-firm median Dec-26 target of 1.35, with a 0.11 spread separating the most and least bearish desks.
usdcad bocRead →Across six tracked EM pairs, consensus ranges from modest USD softness in MXN and ZAR to a striking 8.69% spot-to-median gap in INR, flagging the widest disagreement in the complex.
em fxRead →USD/TRY trades 2.66% below the 17-firm Dec-26 median of 50.5, with a record 12.8-point dispersion exposing deep disagreement on TCMB's real-rate path.
usdtry tcmbRead →WTI spot trades 35% above the five-bank median Dec-26 target of $66, with a $42 range separating the most bullish and most bearish WTI desks.
oil supply shockRead →USD/INR trades at 96.3, roughly 8.7% above the 19-firm median Dec-26 target of 88.6, with a 13.5-point spread separating Goldman from UBS.
usdinr rbiRead →USD/ZAR trades 3.23% above the 17-firm median Dec-26 target of 16.10, with a 2.5-point spread separating Citi's 18.00 from Deutsche Bank's 15.50.
usdzar sarbRead →Spot USD/MXN sits 1.84% above the 18-firm Dec-26 consensus of 17.75, with a 2.20-figure range separating Nomura's 19.20 from StanChart's 17.00.
usdmxn banxicoRead →USD/JPY trades 2.61% above the 24-firm Dec-26 median of 154.0, with a 25.5-point dispersion range signalling deep disagreement on the BoJ-Fed spread path.
usdjpy bojRead →Cable sits 2.47% below the 20-firm median Dec-26 target of 1.355, with a 0.26-point dispersion that reflects a live BoE-vs-Fed rate path debate.
gbp cableRead →USD/BRL trades 2.1% below the 18-firm Dec-26 consensus of 5.10, with a 1.20-figure dispersion signalling deep disagreement on Brazil's fiscal trajectory.
usdbrl bcbRead →Cross-EM consensus skews bearish-USD on five of six pairs, but spot sits above median on four, leaving the largest gap in USD/INR at +8.68%.
em fxRead →EUR/USD trades 3.71% below the 30-firm median Dec-26 target of 1.1634, leaving a wide consensus-to-spot gap that demands explanation.
eurusd divergenceRead →XAU/USD trades at $4,187, nearly 10% below the 11-firm median Dec-26 target of $4,650, with a $2,150 spread separating the most and least bullish desks.
gold vs real ratesRead →AUD/USD trades at 0.6962, a whisker below the 25-firm median Dec-26 target of 0.70, but an 0.08 range separates bulls from bears.
audusd rbaRead →Spot USD/KRW at 1343.14 sits 2.67% below the 17-firm Dec-26 median of 1380, with a 180-point dispersion signalling meaningful regime disagreement.
usdkrw bokRead →USD/BRL trades 2.39% above the 18-firm median Dec-26 target of 5.10, with a 1.20-figure dispersion signalling deep regime disagreement.
usdbrl bcbRead →USD/ZAR trades 3.57% above the 17-firm median Dec-26 target of 16.10, with a 2.5-point dispersion range signalling unusually wide disagreement on the ZAR path.
usdzar sarbRead →USD/CHF trades 6.24% above the 20-firm Dec-26 median of 0.78, with a 0.09 spread separating Citi's 0.83 ceiling from StanChart's 0.74 floor.
usdchf snbRead →XAU/USD trades at 4162.3, roughly 10.5% below the 11-firm Dec-2026 consensus of 4650, with a 2150-point spread separating the most and least bullish desks.
gold vs real ratesRead →USD/CAD trades at 1.4250, 5.56% above the 25-firm median Dec-26 target of 1.35, with a 0.11 dispersion range signalling deep disagreement on the BoC-Fed gap.
usdcad bocRead →USD/INR spot at 96.3 sits 8.69% above the 19-firm Dec-26 consensus of 88.6, with a 13.5-point dispersion separating Goldman from UBS.
usdinr rbiRead →Across six EM pairs, spot trades above Dec-26 consensus on four of them, with USD/INR showing the widest gap at +8.69% through median.
em fxRead →USD/INR trades at 96.3, nearly 9% above the 19-firm median Dec-26 target of 88.6, with a 13.5-point dispersion signalling deep disagreement on the rupee's path.
usdinr rbiRead →USD/TRY trades 2.68% below the 17-firm median Dec-26 target of 50.5, with a record 12.8-point dispersion separating ING from UBS.
usdtry tcmbRead →Spot USD/KRW at 1342.51 sits 2.72% below the 17-firm Dec-2026 median of 1380, with a 180-point dispersion signalling genuine regime disagreement.
usdkrw bokRead →AUD/USD trades at 0.6957, roughly 0.61% below the 25-firm Dec-26 median of 0.70, with an 8-cent spread separating the most and least bullish desks.
audusd rbaRead →NZD/USD trades 6.43% below the 19-firm Dec-26 median of 0.60, with a 0.07 spread separating Commerzbank's 0.63 bull case from Citi's 0.56 floor.
nzdusd rbnzRead →WTI spot at 91.11 sits 38% above the five-desk WTI median of 66.0, with a 42-point range separating Mizuho's bullish 100.0 from Macquarie's bearish 58.0.
oil supply shockRead →XAU/USD trades at $4,162 against an 11-bank consensus median of $4,650 for December 2026, with UniCredit holding the street-high target at $5,200.
gold bank deskRead →The Reserve Bank of India meets on 2026-10-07. Here is what the major banks expect — and where they see the currency heading afterward.
central bank decisionRead →USD/JPY trades 2.51% above the 24-firm median Dec-26 target of 154.0, with a 25.5-point dispersion range signalling deep disagreement on the BoJ-Fed spread path.
usdjpy bojRead →USD/BRL trades 2.4% above the 18-firm median Dec-26 target of 5.10, with a 1.20-figure dispersion signalling deep disagreement on fiscal and carry dynamics.
usdbrl bcbRead →Cable trades 2.28% below the 20-firm median Dec-26 target of 1.3550, with a 0.26-point dispersion that reflects a live BoE-vs-Fed rate path debate.
gbp cableRead →EUR/USD spot sits 3.28% below the 30-firm median Dec-26 target of 1.1634, with a 0.155 dispersion range signalling deep disagreement on the path.
eurusd divergenceRead →Spot USD/TRY at 49.14 sits 2.68% below the 17-firm median Dec-26 target of 50.5, with a record 12.8-point dispersion between ING and UBS.
usdtry tcmbRead →WTI spot trades 38% above the five-desk Dec-26 median of 66.0, flagging a stark bearish consensus gap as OPEC+ discipline and shale economics diverge.
oil supply shockRead →USD/INR spot at 96.3 sits 8.69% above the 19-firm median Dec-26 target of 88.6, with a 13.5-point dispersion separating Goldman from UBS.
usdinr rbiRead →Cable trades 2.28% below the 20-firm median Dec-26 target of 1.355, with a 0.26-point dispersion that reflects a genuine policy-path debate.
gbp cableRead →USD/MXN trades 2.37% above the 18-firm Dec-26 consensus median of 17.75, with a 2.20-point dispersion range signalling unusually wide disagreement on the peso outlook.
usdmxn banxicoRead →EUR/USD spot sits 3.28% below the 30-firm median Dec-26 target of 1.1634, with a 0.155 dispersion range signalling deep disagreement on the Fed-ECB endgame.
eurusd divergenceRead →The Brief
Insufficient bank commentary with specific FX pair targets, trade recommendations, or directional calls to synthesize a meaningful consensus brief. Headline themes — USD/JPY short squeeze on US inflation, EUR upside capped per Commerzbank, Citi lifting Brent on Hormuz disruption — lack the attributed positioning detail required for an actionable desk summary.