FX BANK FORECAST · COVERAGE
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Aggregated year-end forecasts, scenario shifts, and curated analyst notes from 37 institutional desks. No promotion.
FX BANK FORECAST · COVERAGE
Aggregated year-end forecasts, scenario shifts, and curated analyst notes from 37 institutional desks. No promotion.
The Signal
Across 17 sell-side forecasts at the 12-month horizon, dispersion runs at 7.7% — the loudest bucket on the board today.
Three Doors
Open the data behind the brief.
This Week in Research
Pillars
Across Banks
Cable trades at 1.3217 against a 20-firm median Dec-26 target of 1.36, leaving a 2.82% gap that reflects a broadly bullish consensus on sterling.
The Brief
Insufficient bank commentary with specific FX pair targets, trade recommendations, or directional calls to synthesize a meaningful consensus brief. Headline themes — USD/JPY short squeeze on US inflation, EUR upside capped per Commerzbank, Citi lifting Brent on Hormuz disruption — lack the attributed positioning detail required for an actionable desk summary.
USD/CAD trades at 1.4135, roughly 4.70% above the 25-firm median Dec-26 target of 1.35, with a 0.11 spread separating the most and least bearish desks.
usdcad bocRead →AUD/USD trades at 0.7012, roughly 1.24% below the 24-firm Dec-26 median of 0.71, with an unusually wide 0.08 dispersion separating Scotiabank's 0.75 from Citi's 0.67.
audusd rbaRead →EUR/USD spot at 1.13803 sits 2.73% below a 30-firm Dec-26 median of 1.17, leaving consensus firmly bullish but increasingly disconnected from tape.
eurusd divergenceRead →USD/JPY trades 4.51% above the 23-firm Dec-26 consensus of 152.0, with a 25.5-figure dispersion signalling deep disagreement on the BoJ-Fed spread.
usdjpy bojRead →Gold spot at $4,293 sits 7.68% below the 11-firm Dec-2026 median of $4,650, with a $2,150 dispersion exposing deep disagreement on the real-rate path.
gold vs real ratesRead →NZD/USD trades 5.7% below the 19-firm median Dec-26 target of 0.60, with a 0.07 spread separating Citi's bearish 0.56 from Commerzbank's 0.63.
nzdusd rbnzRead →XAU/USD trades at $4,293 against an 11-bank consensus median of $4,650, leaving spot 7.68% below year-end targets with a $2,150 dispersion across the street.
gold bank deskRead →Across six EM pairs, 20 desks show widest dispersion in USD/INR and USD/TRY while USD/MXN and USD/KRW sit nearest consensus.
em fxRead →USD/BRL spot sits 1.29% above the 18-firm Dec-26 median of 5.10, with a 1.20-figure dispersion separating ING at 4.50 from BNP Paribas at 5.70.
usdbrl bcbRead →WTI spot at $93.02 sits nearly 41% above the five-desk WTI median of $66.00, signalling broad sell-side bearishness into year-end.
oil supply shockRead →USD/TRY trades at 48.85, roughly 3.3% below the 17-firm Dec-26 median of 50.5, with a record 12.8-point spread separating ING from UBS.
usdtry tcmbRead →Cross-EM consensus as of September 24, 2026 shows wide dispersion in USD/INR and USD/TRY while USD/BRL and USD/KRW sit near median targets.
em fxRead →USD/ZAR trades 1.77% above the 17-firm median Dec-26 target of 16.10, with a 2.5-figure dispersion separating Citi's 18.0 from Deutsche Bank's 15.5.
usdzar sarbRead →USD/INR spot sits 8.22% above the 19-firm median Dec-26 target of 88.6, with a 13.5-point dispersion separating Goldman from UBS.
usdinr rbiRead →USD/MXN trades 1.73% below the 18-firm Dec-26 median of 17.85, with a 2.20-figure dispersion separating Nomura from Standard Chartered.
usdmxn banxicoRead →Spot USD/KRW at 1365.96 sits 1.02% below the 17-firm Dec-26 median of 1380, with a 180-point dispersion signalling deep disagreement on the BoK-Fed path and China demand.
usdkrw bokRead →XAU/USD trades at $4,326, roughly 7.5% below the ten-firm median Dec-2026 target of $4,675, with a $2,150 spread separating the most and least bullish desks.
gold vs real ratesRead →USD/TRY trades at 48.84, roughly 3.3% below the 17-firm Dec-26 consensus of 50.5, with a record 12.8-point dispersion signalling deep disagreement on Turkey's disinflation path.
usdtry tcmbRead →USD/CHF trades at 0.8253, nearly 5.8% above the 20-firm Dec-26 consensus of 0.78, with a 0.09 dispersion range signalling deep disagreement on SNB trajectory.
usdchf snbRead →NZD/USD spot at 0.5673 sits 5.44% below the 19-firm Dec-26 consensus of 0.60, with a 0.07 spread separating Commerzbank's 0.63 bull case from Citi's 0.56 bear.
nzdusd rbnzRead →Across six EM pairs, sell-side consensus sits broadly neutral into December, but USD/INR dispersion and a wide TRY range flag the sharpest disagreements.
em fxRead →WTI spot at 92.55 sits 40.23% above the five-desk Dec-26 median of 66.0, with a 42-point dispersion signalling deep disagreement on the supply outlook.
oil supply shockRead →EUR/USD spot sits at 1.1392, roughly 2.50% below the 30-firm median Dec-26 target of 1.1684, leaving consensus firmly bullish on the pair.
eurusd divergenceRead →USD/MXN trades at 17.4932, roughly 2% below the 18-firm Dec-26 consensus of 17.85, with a 2.20-figure spread separating the most and least bearish desks.
usdmxn banxicoRead →AUD/USD trades at 0.7033, roughly 0.94% below the 24-firm Dec-2026 median of 0.71, with an 0.08 spread separating Scotiabank's 0.75 from Citi's 0.67.
audusd rbaRead →USD/CAD trades at 1.4086, roughly 4.34% above the 25-firm Dec-26 median target of 1.35, with a 0.11 dispersion range signalling meaningful disagreement on the policy-gap path.
usdcad bocRead →USD/JPY trades 3.83% above the 23-firm median Dec-26 target of 152.0, with a 25.5-point dispersion range signalling deep disagreement on the BoJ-Fed spread path.
usdjpy bojRead →USD/BRL spot sits at 5.1049, within 0.10% of the 18-firm Dec-26 consensus median of 5.10, masking a 1.20-figure dispersion between ING and BNP Paribas.
usdbrl bcbRead →AUD/USD trades at 0.7101, virtually on top of the 24-firm Dec-26 median of 0.71, but an 0.08 dispersion range signals deep disagreement beneath the surface.
audusd rbaRead →USD/INR trades at 95.68, nearly 8% above the 19-firm median Dec-26 target of 88.6, with a 13.5-point spread separating Goldman from UBS.
usdinr rbiRead →Spot USD/ZAR at 16.20 sits just 0.64% above the 17-firm median Dec-26 target of 16.10, masking a 2.5-figure dispersion that reflects sharply divergent SARB and Fed path assumptions.
usdzar sarbRead →Cable trades 2.11% below the 20-firm median Dec-26 target of 1.36, with a 0.26-point dispersion that exposes deep disagreement on BoE-vs-Fed timing.
gbp cableRead →USD/JPY trades 3.55% above the 23-firm median Dec-26 target of 152.0, with a 25.5-point dispersion range signalling deep disagreement on the BoJ-Fed spread path.
usdjpy bojRead →USD/ZAR trades at 16.18, just 0.50% above the 17-firm median Dec-26 target of 16.1, with a 2.5-figure dispersion separating Citi from Deutsche Bank.
usdzar sarbRead →USD/BRL trades at 5.101, virtually flush with the 18-firm Dec-26 median of 5.10, masking a 1.20-figure dispersion between ING's 4.50 and BNP's 5.70.
usdbrl bcbRead →WTI spot at $89.77 sits 36% above the five-desk WTI median of $66, flagging a sharp bearish tilt in bank forecasts for December 2026.
oil supply shockRead →EUR/USD spot sits 2.01% below the 30-firm Dec-26 consensus of 1.1684, exposing a structural bullish tilt that spot has yet to validate.
eurusd divergenceRead →Cable trades 2.04% below the 20-firm median Dec-26 target of 1.36, with a 0.26-point spread separating UBS at 1.50 from Citi at 1.24.
gbp cableRead →NZD/USD trades at 0.5715, nearly 5% below the 19-firm Dec-26 median of 0.6000, with a 0.07 spread separating Commerzbank's bull case from Citi's bear.
nzdusd rbnzRead →Across six EM pairs, bank forecasts show widest dispersion in USD/INR and USD/TRY, with spot already 7.88% above the INR median Dec-26 target.
em fxRead →Spot USD/TRY at 48.82 sits 3.33% below the 17-firm median Dec-26 target of 50.5, with a 12.8-point dispersion that ranks among the widest in EM FX.
usdtry tcmbRead →USD/CAD trades at 1.4034, roughly 3.95% above the 25-firm median Dec-26 target of 1.35, with a 0.11 spread separating Citi from Deutsche Bank.
usdcad bocRead →AUD/USD trades at 0.7113, within 0.19% of the 24-firm Dec-26 median of 0.71, but an 0.08 dispersion range signals deep disagreement on the path.
audusd rbaRead →USD/MXN spot sits 3.46% below the 18-firm Dec-26 median of 17.85, with a 2.20-point dispersion range signalling unusually wide disagreement on the peso's path.
usdmxn banxicoRead →The Riksbank meets on 2026-09-24. Here is what the major banks expect — and where they see the currency heading afterward.
central bank decisionRead →USD/INR trades at 95.79, some 8.12% above the 19-firm Dec-26 median of 88.6, with a 13.5-point spread separating Goldman at 97.0 from UBS at 83.5.
usdinr rbiRead →USD/CHF trades 5.25% above the 20-firm median Dec-26 target of 0.78, with a 0.09 dispersion range signalling unusually wide disagreement on SNB path and franc safe-haven demand.
usdchf snbRead →AUD/USD trades at 0.7119, just 0.27% above the 24-firm Dec-26 consensus of 0.71, masking a 0.08 dispersion that frames the RBA decision as a binary catalyst.
event previewRead →Cable trades 1.72% below the 20-firm median Dec-26 target of 1.36, with a 0.26-point dispersion that reflects sharply divided BoE-vs-Fed rate paths.
gbp cableRead →