FX BANK FORECAST · COVERAGE
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Aggregated year-end forecasts, scenario shifts, and curated analyst notes from 35 institutional desks. No promotion.
FX BANK FORECAST · COVERAGE
Aggregated year-end forecasts, scenario shifts, and curated analyst notes from 35 institutional desks. No promotion.
The Signal
Across 124 sell-side forecasts at the 12-month horizon, dispersion runs at 8.6% — the loudest bucket on the board today.
Three Doors
Open the data behind the brief.
This Week in Research
Pillars
Across Banks
USD/CHF trades 3.6% above the 20-firm Dec-26 median of 0.78, with a 0.09 spread separating Citi's 0.83 bull case from StanChart's 0.74 floor.
The Brief
Weak US payrolls drove broad USD selling as markets pared hawkish Fed positioning. BofA flagged the data as reinforcing curve steepening dynamics post-FOMC, with EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and USD/JPY as primary expression vehicles. Commerzbank sees EUR upside capped by the payrolls read, while USD/JPY yen shorts continue to unwind. CHF remains active as a funding currency per OCBC. EUR/USD resistance at 1.1565 is the near-term pivot; a clean break opens 1.18 targets.
USD/CAD trades at 1.3940, roughly 3.26% above the 25-firm Dec-2026 median of 1.35, with a 0.11 spread separating Citi from Deutsche Bank.
usdcad bocRead →USD/INR trades at 95.2, roughly 9.4% above the 19-firm median Dec-26 target of 87.0, with a 12.5-point dispersion signalling deep disagreement on the pace of rupee recovery.
usdinr rbiRead →USD/KRW trades at 1407.45, nearly 2% above the 18-firm Dec-26 consensus of 1380, with a 180-point spread separating Citi from StanChart.
usdkrw bokRead →Cable trades at 1.3493 with the 21-firm Dec-26 consensus at 1.35, but a 0.23 dispersion from Citi's 1.24 to Morgan Stanley's 1.47 signals deep disagreement on the BoE-Fed rate path.
gbp cableRead →WTI spot trades 18.45% above the nine-bank median Dec-26 target of 66.0, with a 42-point dispersion separating Mizuho's 100 from Macquarie's 58.
oil supply shockRead →EUR/USD spot at 1.1558 sits just 0.21% below the 30-firm Dec-26 consensus of 1.1583, masking a 0.20-wide dispersion range.
eurusd divergenceRead →USD/MXN trades at 17.14, roughly 4.3% below the 19-firm Dec-26 consensus median of 17.90, with a 2.20-point spread separating the most bullish and bearish desks.
usdmxn banxicoRead →USD/INR trades at 95.2, roughly 9.4% above the 19-firm median Dec-26 target of 87.0, with a 12.5-point spread separating the most and least bearish desks.
usdinr rbiRead →Cable trades within a rounding error of the 21-firm median Dec-26 target of 1.35, but a 0.23 dispersion range signals deep disagreement on the BoE-Fed divergence trade.
gbp cableRead →USD/MXN trades at 17.14, roughly 4.3% below the 19-firm Dec-26 consensus of 17.90, with a 2.20-point spread separating the most and least bearish desks.
usdmxn banxicoRead →USD/CHF trades 3.6% above the 20-firm median Dec-26 target of 0.78, with a 0.09 spread separating Citi's 0.83 from StanChart's 0.74.
usdchf snbRead →USD/TRY trades 5.07% below the 18-firm Dec-26 consensus of 50.25, with a 12.80-point dispersion that is the widest in EM FX.
usdtry tcmbRead →USD/BRL spot sits at 5.0864, just 0.27% below the 19-firm Dec-26 median of 5.10, masking a 1.20-point dispersion from ING's 4.50 to BNP Paribas's 5.70.
usdbrl bcbRead →AUD/USD trades at 0.7063, roughly 0.91% above the 25-firm median Dec-26 target of 0.70, with a 0.10 spread separating Scotiabank's 0.75 bull case from Mizuho's 0.65 floor.
audusd rbaRead →NZD/USD trades at 0.5891, roughly 1.82% below the 20-firm Dec-26 median of 0.60, with a 0.07 spread separating the most bullish and bearish desks.
nzdusd rbnzRead →WTI trades 18.6% above the nine-bank median Dec-26 target of $66, with a $42 spread separating Mizuho's $100 bull case from Macquarie's $58 floor.
oil supply shockRead →USD/CAD trades at 1.4018, roughly 3.84% above the 25-firm Dec-26 median of 1.35, with a 0.11 range separating the most and least bearish desks.
usdcad bocRead →Spot EUR/USD at 1.1530 sits just 0.45% below the 30-firm Dec-26 median of 1.1583, masking a 0.20-point dispersion from Citi's 1.10 to Deutsche Bank's 1.30.
eurusd divergenceRead →USD/JPY trades 5.54% above the 23-firm median Dec-26 target of 150.0, with a 25.5-point dispersion signalling deep disagreement on the BoJ-Fed spread path.
usdjpy bojRead →Spot USD/ZAR at 16.24 sits just 0.41% above the 18-firm Dec-26 consensus of 16.175, masking a 2.5-point dispersion that reflects sharply divergent SARB-Fed and commodity views.
usdzar sarbRead →Gold spot at $4,336 sits 5.74% below the 15-firm Dec-2026 median of $4,600, with a $2,150 dispersion signalling deep disagreement on the real-rate path.
gold vs real ratesRead →XAU/USD trades at $4,332.8, 5.81% below the 15-firm consensus Dec-26 median of $4,600, with a $2,150 spread separating the street's most and least bullish desks.
gold bank deskRead →USD/KRW trades at 1419.88, nearly 2.9% above the 18-firm median Dec-26 target of 1380, with a 180-point dispersion signalling deep regime disagreement.
usdkrw bokRead →USD/MXN trades at 17.21, roughly 3.85% below the 19-firm Dec-26 consensus of 17.90, with a 2.20-point dispersion separating the most and least bearish desks.
usdmxn banxicoRead →USD/CHF trades 4.15% above the 20-firm median Dec-26 target of 0.78, with a 0.09 spread separating Citi's 0.83 from StanChart's 0.74.
usdchf snbRead →Gold trades 6.55% below the 15-firm bank median of $4,600, with a $2,150 dispersion that signals deep disagreement on the rate and dollar outlook.
gold vs real ratesRead →Cable trades at 1.3454 against a 21-firm median Dec-26 target of 1.35, leaving spot just 0.34% below consensus with a 0.23 dispersion range.
gbp cableRead →USD/JPY trades 5.64% above the 23-firm Dec-2026 consensus of 150.0, with a 25.5-point dispersion range signalling deep disagreement on the BoJ-Fed spread path.
usdjpy bojRead →Spot USD/KRW sits 3.16% above the 18-firm median Dec-26 target of 1380, with a 180-point dispersion range signalling deep regime disagreement.
usdkrw bokRead →WTI spot trades 17.3% above the nine-bank median Dec-26 target of 66.0, with a 42-point spread separating Mizuho's 100.0 call from Macquarie's 58.0.
oil supply shockRead →USD/TRY trades 5.28% below the 18-firm Dec-26 consensus of 50.25, with a 12.80-point dispersion that is among the widest in EM FX.
usdtry tcmbRead →NZD/USD trades 2.25% below the 20-firm median Dec-26 target of 0.60, with a 0.07 spread separating Citi's bear case from Commerzbank's bull.
nzdusd rbnzRead →AUD/USD trades at 0.7041, a fraction above the 25-firm Dec-26 median of 0.70, with a 0.10 spread separating Scotiabank's 0.75 from Mizuho's 0.65.
audusd rbaRead →USD/CAD trades at 1.3997, roughly 3.68% above the 25-firm Dec-2026 consensus median of 1.35, with a 0.11 dispersion range signalling meaningful disagreement on the policy gap.
usdcad bocRead →USD/BRL trades at 5.1239, just 0.47% above the 19-firm Dec-26 median of 5.10, masking a 1.20-figure dispersion from ING's 4.50 to BNP Paribas's 5.70.
usdbrl bcbRead →Across six EM pairs, consensus ranges from near-flat on BRL to a 9.4% spot-vs-median gap on INR, with dispersion widest in TRY and KRW.
em fxRead →USD/INR trades at 95.19, roughly 9.4% above the 19-firm median Dec-26 target of 87.0, with a 12.5-point spread separating the most and least bearish desks.
usdinr rbiRead →USD/ZAR trades at 16.33, roughly 0.97% above the 18-firm Dec-26 median of 16.18, with a 2.5-point spread separating the most and least bearish desks.
usdzar sarbRead →USD/JPY trades 5.16% above the 23-firm Dec-2026 median of 150.0, with a 25.5-point dispersion range signalling deep disagreement on the BoJ-Fed spread path.
usdjpy bojRead →EUR/USD spot sits at 1.1551, just 0.28% below the 30-firm Dec-26 median of 1.1583, but a 0.20-wide dispersion band signals deep disagreement beneath the surface.
eurusd divergenceRead →NZD/USD trades at 0.5888, roughly 1.9% below the 20-firm Dec-26 median of 0.60, with an unusually wide 0.08 dispersion separating ANZ from Citi.
nzdusd rbnzRead →USD/KRW trades 3.01% above the 18-firm median Dec-26 target of 1380, with a 180-point dispersion range signalling deep disagreement on the won's path.
usdkrw bokRead →USD/CHF trades 3.48% above the 20-firm Dec-26 consensus of 0.78, with a 0.09 spread separating Citi's 0.83 bull case from StanChart's 0.74 floor.
usdchf snbRead →Across six tracked EM pairs, consensus skews toward modest USD softening by December 2026, but dispersion is wide and INR stands as the sharpest outlier.
em fxRead →USD/BRL trades at 5.117, just 0.33% above the 19-firm median Dec-26 target of 5.10, masking a 1.20-figure dispersion between ING at 4.50 and BNP Paribas at 5.70.
usdbrl bcbRead →USD/ZAR trades 0.95% above the 18-firm Dec-26 consensus median of 16.175, with a 2.5-point dispersion range signalling meaningful regime disagreement.
usdzar sarbRead →NZD/USD trades at 0.5879, roughly 2% below the 20-firm Dec-26 consensus of 0.60, with an 0.08 spread separating Citi's bear case from ANZ's bull.
nzdusd rbnzRead →USD/CAD trades at 1.4062, roughly 4.2% above the 25-firm median Dec-2026 target of 1.35, with a 0.11 spread separating Citi from Deutsche Bank.
usdcad bocRead →XAU/USD trades at $4,215, roughly 8.4% below the 15-firm consensus Dec-26 median of $4,600, with a $2,150 spread separating the street's most and least bullish desks.
gold bank deskRead →