What is the cross-firm FX consensus?

The cross-firm FX consensus is the aggregated view of where the major sell-side investment banks expect each currency pair to head. Rather than relying on any single house view, we compare the published year-end and quarterly forecasts of 38 institutional research desks side by side and compute the mean, median, range and dispersion across them. The result is a single legible map of where the sell side genuinely agrees and where it splits — the consensus target for each pair, how widely the desks disagree, and how that aggregate sits versus live spot. It turns a pile of individual bank reports into a comparable, citable snapshot of institutional conviction.

How many banks are tracked in the consensus?

The consensus aggregates the published forecasts of 38 major global investment banks and sell-side research desks. Each pair on the page is built from the subset of those desks that have a current published target for that pair, so the contributing sample is shown per pair rather than assumed to be uniform. Aggregating across many independent desks — instead of citing any one house view — is what makes the consensus robust: when several banks cluster around a level, that agreement is itself a signal, and when they scatter, the dispersion tells you how contested the call is.

How often is the consensus updated?

The consensus is refreshed continuously as new bank research lands. When a desk publishes a revised forecast, that target flows into the aggregate, so the mean, median, range and dispersion you see reflect the most recent published views rather than a static periodic snapshot. The page is rendered fresh on each request from the underlying forecast records, which means the cross-firm picture moves as the institutional debate moves and the consensus you read is current rather than archival.

Is the consensus free to view?

Yes. The aggregate cross-firm consensus — the consensus target, the forecast range, the dispersion across desks, the contributing desk count and how the consensus sits versus live spot — is free to view for everyone. What is reserved for subscribers is the per-firm distribution behind the aggregate: which individual bank holds which target, each desk’s specific level and the detailed reasoning. The headline consensus picture stays open so the aggregate is fully readable and citable.

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Aggregated year-end forecasts, scenario shifts, and curated analyst notes from 38 institutional desks. No promotion.

As of Nov 2026, the 38-bank consensus sees USD/JPY at 154.8 (range 140–170, a 30-figure spread), EUR/USD at 1.15, and GBP/USD at 1.35.

Live dispersionThe Tape — live bank moves →Which banks revised their forecast — consensus shifts →What changed today — daily brief →See out-of-consensus calls →↓ Download consensus (CSV)⧉ Embed this board — free widget

2026 FX Bank Consensus

LIVE

Aggregated forecasts from 38 firms|2025 accuracy →|Recent shifts →

Currencies Tracked

From 38 firms

Avg Agreement

59%

Cross-firm alignment

Live Coverage

of 34 pairs with live rates

Firm Agreement Map

Each dot is a firm's forecast on a min-max scale. Diamond marks consensus.

CAD

1.321.43

72%

EUR

1.081.22

58%

JPY

140.00170.00

44%

CNY

6.507.25

68%

INR

84.5098.00

37%

NOK

8.7510.80

46%

PLN

3.253.85

46%

SEK

8.5010.20

33%

TRY

43.5053.50

36%

ZAR

15.5018.00

51%

AUD

0.670.75

65%

NZD

0.560.63

63%

Per-firm desks (anonymized) Consensus

See which bank holds which target — the full per-firm distribution behind the dispersion

Regional Consensus Profile

Agreement, bullish/bearish counts by region

Regional consensus radar — agreement percentage, bullish counts, and bearish counts by region
Region	Currencies	Avg Agreement (%)
G10	10	55%
EM-Asia	9	72%
EM-EMEA	8	48%
EM-LatAm	4	62%
Other	3	59%

Consensus Forecasts

Average, min, max targets across all firms — Dec 2026

				Min	Max	Live Rate
USD/CAD	G10	--	1.371	1.32	1.43	--	--	72%
EUR/USD	G10	--	1.1469	1.085	1.22	--	--	58%
USD/JPY	G10	--	154.806	140.00	170.00	--	--	44%
USD/CNY	EM-Asia	--	6.8753	6.50	7.25	--	--	68%
USD/INR	EM-Asia	--	91.1368	84.50	98.00	--	--	37%
USD/NOK	G10	--	9.5476	8.75	10.80	--	--	46%
USD/PLN	EM-EMEA	--	3.4576	3.25	3.85	--	--	46%
USD/SEK	G10	--	9.0012	8.50	10.20	--	--	33%
USD/TRY	EM-EMEA	--	49.9412	43.50	53.50	--	--	36%
USD/ZAR	EM-EMEA	--	16.2559	15.50	18.00	--	--	51%
AUD/USD	G10	--	0.7077	0.67	0.75	--	--	65%
NZD/USD	G10	--	0.60	0.56	0.63	--	--	63%
USD/CHF	G10	--	0.7775	0.74	0.83	--	--	63%
USD/HUF	EM-EMEA	--	317.9412	288.00	375.00	--	--	8%
USD/BRL	EM-LatAm	--	5.1389	4.50	5.70	--	--	34%
USD/KRW	EM-Asia	--	1,379.2778	1,280.00	1,460.00	--	--	59%
USD/MXN	EM-LatAm	--	17.9316	17.00	19.20	--	--	56%
GBP/USD	G10	--	1.3508	1.24	1.50	--	--	49%
USD/DXY	--	--	95.2133	92.00	104.00	--	--	59%
USD/ILS	EM-EMEA	--	3.10	3.00	3.25	--	--	49%
USD/XAU	--	--	4,000.00	4,000.00	4,000.00	--	--	n/a
USD/PHP	EM-Asia	--	62.50	60.00	66.00	--	--	49%
USD/MYR	EM-Asia	--	4.00	4.00	4.00	--	--	100%
USD/CLP	EM-LatAm	--	872.50	870.00	875.00	--	--	95%
USD/COP	EM-LatAm	--	3,900.00	3,900.00	3,900.00	--	--	n/a
USD/CZK	EM-EMEA	--	20.05	20.00	20.10	--	--	96%
USD/IDR	EM-Asia	--	17,000.00	17,000.00	17,000.00	--	--	100%
USD/JPM USD index	--	--	108.60	108.60	108.60	--	--	n/a
USD/SGD	EM-Asia	--	1.28	1.26	1.30	--	--	81%
USD/THB	EM-Asia	--	33.50	33.50	33.50	--	--	n/a
USD/TWD	EM-Asia	--	31.10	30.70	31.50	--	--	78%
USD/DKK	G10	--	6.22	6.22	6.22	--	--	n/a
USD/KZT	EM-EMEA	--	500.00	500.00	500.00	--	--	n/a
USD/UAH	EM-EMEA	--	44.50	44.50	44.50	--	--	n/a

Closest to Consensus Target

Furthest from Consensus Target

Full retail crowd positioning across 28 instruments (incl. gold & oil) →US Dollar Index (DXY) — the consensus as one dollar number →

What every desk is watching — cross-bank macro themes

JPM

Copper: Bullish conviction on China pull and supply risks — LME price in tug-of-war between US tariff news and China demand
Carry trade resilience with funder rotation — Rotate away from CHF and SEK funders toward EUR
Euro area sovereign spread widening – France in focus — Technical and positioning factors driving spread moves beyond fundamentals
EM carry under selective resilient-growth backdrop — Migrate to higher-carry, more idiosyncratic stories
Rotation amongst FX funders — From Swiss and SEK towards Euro as preferred funder
Pro-cyclical carry — Non-dollar funded carry remains highest-conviction strategy
Euro area sovereign spread stabilisation — Technical pressures fading; France cheap but gradual normalisation expected
EM sovereign curve flattening lag — EM curves historically catch up to Treasury flattening with a lag
UK Budget as Market Clearing Event for Sterling

Nordea

Danish fiscal resilience amid rising defence spending — Strong public finances provide buffer for expansionary policy
Swedish economic upswing driven by domestic demand recovery — GDP growth of ~3% in 2026 led by household consumption and investment
Dollar smile sliding lower — Gradual further USD depreciation expected
Nordic outperformance amid global disruption — Stable fiscal and political backdrop supports strong Nordic growth
Structural NOK flow reversal — Shift from persistent NOK selling pressure to net buying in 2026
Stronger NOK opens door to one more Norges Bank rate cut — NOK purchases and USD weakness to push EUR/NOK
Easing trade uncertainty supports modest global growth — US trade agreements with EU, UK and Japan reduce tail risks
Norwegian wage share imbalance as inflation risk — Historically low manufacturing wage share creates persistent upside risk to wages and prices
Swedish recovery regaining momentum — Households, exports and fiscal policy support gradual upturn
Limited room for Norges Bank rate cuts — Strong growth, high inflation and fiscal stimulus constrain the easing cycle
Further dollar weakening — USD exits its 10-year upward trend
Trade deal optimism driving risk-on sentiment — US reaching agreements with EU, Japan, South Korea, Indonesia
Nordic resilience amid global trade uncertainty — Solid public finances and external surpluses provide buffer
Swedish economic resilience amid global trade war — Gradual recovery continues despite external headwinds
Denmark exceptionally well prepared for global uncertainty — Savings surplus, solid public finances and flexible labour market provide resilience
USD structural decline and global capital reallocation — US policy actions triggering reassessment of USD reserve currency status
Trump threatening American Exceptionalism and USD — Multi-year USD depreciation driven by shrinking US economic outperformance
Norwegian growth acceleration despite global tariff uncertainty — Interest-sensitive sectors recovering without rate cuts
China trade war readiness and growth outlook — US-China tariff escalation to shave-2% from China GDP in 2025-2026
US Treasuries losing safe-haven status — Tariff-driven bond sell-off challenges traditional flight-to-quality dynamics
Tariff uncertainty and downside economic risks — Trump's reciprocal tariffs exceed expectations and rattle markets
Mar-a-Lago Accord: Structural dollar weakening — US policies working toward a weaker dollar without a formal coordinated deal
Europe's Strategic Autonomy Push — Rearmament and fiscal expansion reshaping the EU economic and political outlook
European defence and infrastructure spending boom — A counterweight to US tariff headwinds
Trump tariffs impact on Euro area and Nordics — Confidence effect could dominate the direct trade hit
Capacity constraints in Norway's construction sector — NOK weakness and European competition for labour threaten housing supply
Swedish domestic demand recovery — Lower rates and stronger household purchasing power drive rebound
Norwegian economy entering above-trend growth phase — Fiscal stimulus, housing recovery, and consumption rebound converge
US-Rest-of-World Economic Divergence Fuelling USD — Fed pauses while ECB and others keep cutting
Monetary policy divergence: US vs Europe — Higher neutral rate in US than Europe drives USD strength
Trump presidency as an inflationary USD driver — Short-term USD bullish, long-term highly uncertain
US Election Outcome and Market Impact — Republican sweep vs Harris victory vs divided government
Danish economy entering calmer period after volatile years — Inflation under control, rate cuts ahead, pharmaceutical sector driving growth
Norwegian economic upswing — Household purchasing power recovery driving growth
Gradual central bank rate normalization — Fed and ECB on quarterly 25bp cut paths
NOK weakness explained by interest rate differentials and Norway's diminished relative excellence — A decade of structural shifts underpinning NOK depreciation
Swedish economy past its worst, gradual recovery ahead — Rate cuts arriving just in time to avert deeper contraction
Norges Bank rate cycle: peak near, cuts distant — Policy rate likely peaking at 4.25% with cuts not expected until 2025
Norwegian economy cooling but no severe downturn — Resilient but not invincible
Swedish economic contraction and slow recovery — Tight monetary policy and weak domestic demand drag on growth
Higher rates for longer — Only rate cuts are excluded for now
Norwegian economy more resilient than expected — Higher rates needed for longer; NOK to recover gradually
Sweden's post-pandemic excess deflating — Rate hikes, housing correction and weak consumption drag on growth
Stubborn core inflation forcing prolonged central bank tightening — Developed economies face sticky service and wage inflation
Norwegian economic stagnation in 2023 — Eroding purchasing power offsets petroleum sector strength
Global turning point: China reopening and European energy relief — Positive surprises possible in 2023 after a difficult 2022
Sweden's economy off balance in 2023 — Debt vulnerability tested by dramatic change in financial conditions
Sweden's economy weakening from a strong position — Rate hikes and high inflation dampening growth and labour market
USD to power on amid global stress — Dollar smile supports USD in multiple scenarios
Swedish economy entering subdued growth phase — From post-pandemic strength to headwinds
Central bank divergence drives FX — Loose vs. tight monetary policy creates currency winners and losers
Ukraine conflict triggers global risk aversion and energy price surge — Stagflation risks compound existing central bank tightening dilemma
Weaponisation of currencies and FX fragmentation — Geopolitical tensions reshaping global currency markets
Fed hiking cycle revival and dollar strength — No hiking cycle this century has consisted of just a single move
Swedish economy normalisation — Broad-based expansion with rising resource utilisation
Denmark's Nationalbank shifts to symmetric ERM II band — Strong fundamentals underpin greater krone flexibility
Global resilience despite geopolitical headwinds — Capital expenditure in AI, defence and green transition underpins growth
AI downturn as a dollar-weakening catalyst — Parallels to the dot-com bubble suggest USD vulnerability
Norges Bank U-turn: Higher for longer in Norway — Inflation stuck around 3% prompts rate hikes and delayed cuts
Global Resilience Driven by Technological Development — New technologies offsetting geopolitical and inflation headwinds
Inflation returns as dominant market theme — Structural and energy-driven factors sustain upward pressure on rates
Norges Bank at peak rates, cuts not until 2025 — Higher for longer in Norway
Riksbank hiking to defend SEK, then cutting — SEK weakness is the primary driver of further tightening
Weak global growth outlook — China slowdown and Euro-area stagnation weigh on global demand
China post-COVID rebound a bright spot but limited global spillover — Growth concentrated in services limits commodity and trade impact
Norges Bank in fine-tuning mode — Policy rate expected to peak at 3.25% by summer 2023
Central bank tightening cycle nearing but not at peak — ECB behind Fed; both likely to keep rates elevated well into 2024
European energy crisis as key macro risk — Rationing likely in some countries this winter
Riksbank hiking cycle to end early 2023 — Defending inflation credibility ahead of wage negotiations
Dollar strength before eventual softening — USD expected to peak around mid-2023
Nordic exposure to Russia creates asset underperformance risks — Finnish and Danish assets under particular pressure
Structural dollar headwinds building — Dollar-bullish picture could shift in H2 2027
Services exports as Sweden's export miracle — Services exports 50% above pre-pandemic levels
Household consumption recovery driven by tax cuts and real wage growth — Purchasing power boost expected to lift private spending
Riksbank on hold in 2026, hiking in 2027 — Low inflation tolerated as economy recovers; rate hike anticipated early 2027
Central banks on hold but volatility persists — No ECB or Fed moves in 2026, but bond and FX volatility remain elevated
European monetary policy divergence — ECB stable in 2026, while political pressure may force Fed cuts
Inflation staying above target limits Norges Bank easing scope — High wage growth sustains domestic price pressures
Nordic outperformance — Energy efficiency and digital advancement shield Nordic economies
NOK to strengthen, especially vs USD — Oil prices and Norges Bank purchases support krone; USD weakness adds tailwind
Geopolitical Risk from Strait of Hormuz Closure — Energy price uncertainty as the primary downside risk
Elevated long-term interest rates on both sides of the Atlantic — Public financing pressures keep yields high
NOK gradual strengthening vs EUR — Rate differentials and Norges Bank FX flows support modest NOK appreciation
ECB rate hikes returning to forecasts — ECB paused at 2%; hikes pencilled in for 2027
Global central banks on hold and slightly hawkish — Fed, ECB and BoJ all kept rates unchanged
Europe's fiscal expansion offsetting trade war drag — Defence spending and infrastructure investment boost European growth
SEK appreciation contributing to lower inflation — Stronger SEK expected to persist through forecast period
Danish rate-cut cycle nearing its end — Policy rate tracking ECB; one more cut expected before a pause
SEK undervaluation and gradual strengthening trend — IMF estimates SEK real exchange rate undervalued by 17%
German fiscal boost supports Euro-area outlook — Large investment package and looser fiscal rules to lift Euro-area GDP
Norges Bank on hold: No rate cuts in 2025 or 2026 — Persistent inflation and low unemployment remove case for easing
China stimulus and overcapacity dilemma — Fiscal expansion risks deepening structural imbalances
Mar-a-Lago Accord risk — Tariffs as a bargaining chip to restructure the global dollar system
EU-US Trade War Escalation Risk
Diverging central bank paths under tariff pressure — ECB likely to cut; Fed faces a trickier balancing act
Trumponomics and the Norwegian 'triple squeeze' — Why the feared triple hit is unlikely to materialise
Riksbank cutting cycle and SEK outlook — Policy rate to reach 2% but remain above pre-pandemic lows
Norges Bank rate cuts limited to two — Fewer cuts than consensus due to above-trend growth and sticky inflation
Trump Policy Uncertainty as a Global Risk Factor — Tariffs, immigration, and fiscal plans create multi-directional risks
Nordic domestic demand comeback — Consumer purchasing power recovery to drive Nordic growth
USD negativity overdone — Rate differential reversal to support dollar in H2
Fiscal Policy Unlikely to Be a Major Economic Driver — High deficit starting point constrains both candidates
Riksbank cutting to 2%, long-run neutral around 3% — No return to zero rates; higher-for-longer structural shift
Elevated long-term yields and US fiscal concerns — US sovereign debt sustainability weighing on global bond markets
Rate Hike Cycle Resumption at Fed and ECB — Above-target inflation to prompt further tightening
Central banks not rushing to ease — Fed on hold; ECB cutting cautiously
Cyclical currency outperformance — SEK, NOK, AUD, NZD, CAD to benefit from global recovery
NOK remains weak vs EUR but strengthens vs USD — European capital flows and USD distrust drive the divergence
Weaker NOK for longer, gradual recovery in the long term — NOK has moved from high-rate to low-rate currency
Fiscal stimulus fading post-2026 election — Unusually generous 2026 election-year fiscal policy to be withdrawn
Cyclical currencies to underperform until rate cuts arrive
Consumer Comeback as Key Upside Risk in Euro Area and China — Savings drawdown could surprise growth to the upside
Dollar dominance is over — Multiple factors point to continued USD weakness
Nordic economies resilient but growth revised lower — AAA-rated fiscal strength offset by consumer and housing headwinds
Euro area fiscal boost and growth acceleration — German investment and European productivity catching up
Fed rate cuts limited relative to market pricing — Only one cut expected vs. market pricing of five
Central banks have more work to do on inflation — Rate hikes to continue well into 2023
Rising Term Premia and Higher Long-End Yields — Structural pressures pushing longer bond yields higher
Bond yields face upward pressure from QT and sticky inflation — Risk premium set to return as central banks reduce holdings

Positioning vs Consensus

Where smart money disagrees with the banks

Three independent reads on each major currency, lined up on one axis — bullish or bearish the currency against the dollar. Sell-side bank consensus (mean Dec-2026 target vs spot), leveraged-money positioning from the CFTC Commitments of Traders report, and the market forecast poll. Today the groups disagree on EUR, GBP, JPY, CHF, CAD, AUD, NZD — speculators are positioned against the bank call, the kind of split that tends to precede a squeeze or a forecast revision.

Directional comparison of sell-side bank consensus, CFTC speculative positioning, the market forecast poll, and cross-broker retail (crowd) positioning for major currencies versus the US dollar.
Currency	Banks	Speculators · CFTC	Market poll	Retail · crowd	Agreement
EUR EUR/USD	BearishSell EUR	Bearish−78.6K (−7.0K wow)	Bullish@ 1.13662	Bullish75% long / 25% short	Divergent
GBP GBP/USD	BearishSell GBP	Bullish+26.7K (+9.5K wow)	Bearish@ 1.3292	Bearish32% long / 68% short	Divergent
JPY USD/JPY	BullishBuy JPY	Bearish−14.8K (−187 wow)	Bullish@ 156.73	Bullish45% long / 55% short	Divergent
CHF USD/CHF	BullishBuy CHF	Bearish−16.8K (+657 wow)	Bearish@ 0.82775	Bearish64% long / 36% short	Divergent
CAD USD/CAD	BullishBuy CAD	Bearish−86.3K (+10.4K wow)	Neutral@ 1.40409	Bearish53% long / 47% short	Divergent
AUD AUD/USD	BearishSell AUD	Bullish+50.1K (+1.7K wow)	Bullish@ 0.69762	Bearish37% long / 63% short	Divergent
NZD NZD/USD	BearishSell NZD	Bearish−23.2K (−600 wow)	Bullish@ 0.56991	Bullish83% long / 17% short	Divergent
MXN USD/MXN	BullishBuy MXN	Bullish+71.4K (+3.0K wow)	—	Bullish31% long / 69% short	Aligned
BRL USD/BRL	BullishBuy BRL	Bullish+38.6K (+31.0K wow)	—	—	Aligned

Bank consensus aggregated from sell-side investment-bank research. Speculative positioning from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission Commitments of Traders report (non-commercial net contracts; positive = net long the currency). Market poll from a third-party market forecast survey. Retail (crowd) long/short positioning blended across broker crowds (Myfxbook Community Outlook and Dukascopy SWFX). Bullish/bearish is expressed for the foreign currency against the US dollar.