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FX BANK FORECAST · COVERAGE
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Aggregated year-end forecasts, scenario shifts, and curated analyst notes from 37 institutional desks. No promotion.
FX BANK FORECAST · COVERAGE
Aggregated year-end forecasts, scenario shifts, and curated analyst notes from 37 institutional desks. No promotion.
As of Oct 2026, the 37-bank consensus sees USD/JPY at 153.7 (range 140–166, a 26-figure spread), EUR/USD at 1.16, and GBP/USD at 1.35.
Aggregated forecasts from 37 firms|2025 accuracy →|Recent shifts →
Each dot is a firm's forecast on a min-max scale. Diamond marks consensus.
See which bank holds which target — the full per-firm distribution behind the dispersion
Agreement, bullish/bearish counts by region
| Region | Currencies | Avg Agreement (%) | Bullish | Bearish |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| G10 | 10 | 55% | 0 | 0 |
| EM-LatAm | 4 | 62% | 0 | 0 |
| EM-Asia | 9 | 71% | 0 | 0 |
| Other | 3 | 61% | 0 | 0 |
| EM-EMEA | 8 | 46% | 0 | 0 |
Average, min, max targets across all firms — Dec 2026
| Min | Max | Live Rate | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AUD/USD | G10 | -- | 0.7058 | 0.67 | 0.75 | -- | -- | 65% |
| USD/BRL | EM-LatAm | -- | 5.1389 | 4.50 | 5.70 | -- | -- | 34% |
| USD/CAD | G10 | -- | 1.3666 | 1.32 | 1.43 | -- | -- | 72% |
| USD/CHF | G10 | -- | 0.7774 | 0.74 | 0.83 | -- | -- | 63% |
| EUR/USD | G10 | -- | 1.1621 | 1.085 | 1.24 | -- | -- | 58% |
| GBP/USD | G10 | -- | 1.3536 | 1.24 | 1.50 | -- | -- | 49% |
| USD/JPY | G10 | -- | 153.6542 | 140.00 | 165.50 | -- | -- | 43% |
| USD/MXN | EM-LatAm | -- | 17.8861 | 17.00 | 19.20 | -- | -- | 56% |
| NZD/USD | G10 | -- | 0.6021 | 0.56 | 0.63 | -- | -- | 68% |
| USD/CNY | EM-Asia | -- | 6.8783 | 6.50 | 7.25 | -- | -- | 69% |
| USD/DXY | -- | -- | 95.2625 | 92.00 | 104.00 | -- | -- | 61% |
| USD/HUF | EM-EMEA | -- | 317.9412 | 288.00 | 375.00 | -- | -- | 8% |
| USD/INR | EM-Asia | -- | 89.4789 | 83.50 | 97.00 | -- | -- | 43% |
| USD/KRW | EM-Asia | -- | 1,378.0588 | 1,280.00 | 1,460.00 | -- | -- | 58% |
| USD/NOK | G10 | -- | 9.5476 | 8.75 | 10.80 | -- | -- | 46% |
| USD/PLN | EM-EMEA | -- | 3.4576 | 3.25 | 3.85 | -- | -- | 46% |
| USD/TRY | EM-EMEA | -- | 50.2235 | 43.50 | 56.30 | -- | -- | 27% |
| USD/ZAR | EM-EMEA | -- | 16.3294 | 15.50 | 18.00 | -- | -- | 49% |
| USD/SEK | G10 | -- | 9.0012 | 8.50 | 10.20 | -- | -- | 33% |
| USD/ILS | EM-EMEA | -- | 3.10 | 3.00 | 3.25 | -- | -- | 49% |
| USD/MYR | EM-Asia | -- | 4.00 | 4.00 | 4.00 | -- | -- | 100% |
| USD/PHP | EM-Asia | -- | 62.3333 | 60.00 | 66.00 | -- | -- | 38% |
| USD/CLP | EM-LatAm | -- | 872.50 | 870.00 | 875.00 | -- | -- | 95% |
| USD/COP | EM-LatAm | -- | 3,900.00 | 3,900.00 | 3,900.00 | -- | -- | n/a |
| USD/CZK | EM-EMEA | -- | 20.05 | 20.00 | 20.10 | -- | -- | 96% |
| USD/IDR | EM-Asia | -- | 17,000.00 | 17,000.00 | 17,000.00 | -- | -- | 100% |
| USD/JPM USD index | -- | -- | 108.60 | 108.60 | 108.60 | -- | -- | n/a |
| USD/SGD | EM-Asia | -- | 1.28 | 1.26 | 1.30 | -- | -- | 81% |
| USD/THB | EM-Asia | -- | 33.50 | 33.50 | 33.50 | -- | -- | n/a |
| USD/TWD | EM-Asia | -- | 31.10 | 30.70 | 31.50 | -- | -- | 78% |
| USD/DKK | G10 | -- | 6.22 | 6.22 | 6.22 | -- | -- | n/a |
| USD/KZT | EM-EMEA | -- | 500.00 | 500.00 | 500.00 | -- | -- | n/a |
| USD/UAH | EM-EMEA | -- | 44.50 | 44.50 | 44.50 | -- | -- | n/a |
| USD/XAU | -- | -- | 4,000.00 | 4,000.00 | 4,000.00 | -- | -- | n/a |
Positioning vs Consensus
Three independent reads on each major currency, lined up on one axis — bullish or bearish the currency against the dollar. Sell-side bank consensus (mean Dec-2026 target vs spot), leveraged-money positioning from the CFTC Commitments of Traders report, and the market forecast poll. Today the groups disagree on EUR, GBP, JPY, CHF, CAD, AUD, NZD, BRL — speculators are positioned against the bank call, the kind of split that tends to precede a squeeze or a forecast revision.
| Currency | Banks | Speculators · CFTC | Market poll | Retail · crowd | Agreement |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EUR EUR/USD | BearishSell EUR | Bearish−39.3K (−12.6K wow) | Bullish@ 1.15344 | Bullish75% long / 25% short | Divergent |
GBP GBP/USD | BearishSell GBP | Bullish+4.6K (−8.6K wow) | Bullish@ 1.32807 | Bearish43% long / 57% short | Divergent |
JPY USD/JPY | BullishBuy JPY | Bearish−14.2K (−21.6K wow) | Neutral@ 157.56 | Bearish51% long / 49% short | Divergent |
CHF USD/CHF | BullishBuy CHF | Bearish−14.0K (+2.5K wow) | Neutral@ 0.82643 | Bullish49% long / 51% short | Divergent |
CAD USD/CAD | BullishBuy CAD | Bearish−69.6K (−22.8K wow) | Bullish@ 1.39 | Bullish23% long / 77% short | Divergent |
AUD AUD/USD | BearishSell AUD | Bullish+60.6K (+1.9K wow) | Bullish@ 0.70818 | Bearish37% long / 63% short | Divergent |
NZD NZD/USD | BearishSell NZD | Bearish−1.1K (+3.7K wow) | Bullish@ 0.57611 | Bullish84% long / 16% short | Divergent |
BRL USD/BRL | BearishSell BRL | Bullish+9.6K (−5.4K wow) | — | — | Divergent |
MXN USD/MXN | BullishBuy MXN | Bullish+80.6K (+1.4K wow) | — | Bullish25% long / 75% short | Aligned |
Bank consensus aggregated from sell-side investment-bank research. Speculative positioning from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission Commitments of Traders report (non-commercial net contracts; positive = net long the currency). Market poll from a third-party market forecast survey. Retail (crowd) long/short positioning blended across broker crowds (Myfxbook Community Outlook and Dukascopy SWFX). Bullish/bearish is expressed for the foreign currency against the US dollar.