Fed cutting cycle supports EM local markets — Eroding US carry advantage and dollar weakness are key tailwinds
Frontier markets remain in favor amid tight EM spreads — Investors seek bottom-up stories as broad EM credit spreads offer less opportunity
Pro-cyclical FX longs in soft-landing backdrop — Fed easing into benign growth favors higher-carry and mid-yielding currencies
Middle East escalation: contained tail risks, limited oil price impact — Risk aversion elevated but full-scale conflict unlikely
Fed mid-cycle adjustment analog: 1999-2000 — Historical parallels for a post-easing return to hiking
EMFX: Turning constructive amid Fed hawkishness and lower oil — Constructive view grounded in reduced positioning, better BOP outlook, and strong cyclical backdrop
EM Asia FX: continued decoupling, good as portfolio funders — Low-yielders vulnerable to tighter financial conditions and cheap RMB
Near-term bullish vs. medium-term bearish rates tension — Quarter-end rebalancing versus fundamental cheapening pressure
EM Local Rates: Difficult directional environment, focus on specific countries — Oil price decline and US curve flattening drove outperformance, but outlook remains cautious
US exceptionalism underpinning dollar bulls beyond Fed alone — Dollar trade has asymmetry versus rates trade
EM sovereign spreads well anchored by strong growth
Bullish risk / bullish beta / bullish dollar barbell — Diversification for mixed macro outcomes
High-beta G10 vs CHF as global growth proxy — CHF baskets cheap to global growth; prefer over cyclical SEK in carry regime
CEE cyclical recovery and sticky core inflation — Improving growth backdrop limits room for dovish central banks
Cautious stance on intra-EMU spread carry — No clear summer tightening trend; US-Iran tensions a headwind
Fed hawkishness regime shift — Most hawkish pivot since 2022 per NLP index
Central bank stance as EMEA EM FX differentiator — Mid-yielding EMEA currencies increasingly driven by hawkish vs dovish CB pivots
Energy prices and central bank divergence — Rising energy driving asymmetric Fed pricing sensitivity
Japan running out of conventional FX policy tools — Intervention capacity constrained; GPIF as next frontier
Government shutdown asymmetric dollar negative — Data vacuum and confidence effects skew dollar risks lower
Cross-border issuance seasonality – October/November Yankee supply — Seasonal Yankee outpacing of reverse-Yankee is basis-narrowing
Low-Yielding EM Rates Under Pressure — Shallower Fed cuts compound existing concerns about easing cycle exhaustion
FX carry working but with caveats — Cyclical recovery but lower diversification benefit and resilience
Africa reform momentum sustaining investor interest — Nigeria, Egypt, Ghana, Kenya, Uganda and Angola among highlighted names
Fiscal haves vs. have-nots driving European FX differentiation — Fiscal credibility increasingly a key FX differentiator in DM Europe
EM sovereign credit: strong but valuation-stretched — Spreads tight; regime shift to risk-off requires a US recession shock
Dollar bearish in a carry-efficient way
Modest medium-term bullish bias on German duration — 10-year Bund target around 250bp, limited fiscal term premium concern
Cautious on EM Hard Currency Credit — Spreads-year lows look expensive given US growth risks
FX hedge ratio stalling in European real money sector — Renewed catalyst needed to restart hedging demand
EMFX stuck in frustrating ranges despite improving backdrop — Positioning and valuations improved but dollar carry hurdle persists
Euro area swap spreads: residual seasonal narrowing with French risk overlay — Seasonality well-subscribed; OAT spread tail risk remains
Carry-to-value rotation in G10 FX; fiscal outlook replacing yield differential — BOE, Fed, and Norges Bank cutting cycles work against G10 carry longs
Treasury term premium and WAM management — Refunding offers modest cap on term premium, not a game-changer
Riksbank and Norges Bank near end of easing cycles with divergent macro backdrops
BoE hawkish cut signals slower easing path — Quarterly pace retained but November cut probability reduced
Russia-Ukraine ceasefire optionality: zero priced in many EM local markets — Energy market effects most tangible; growth and spending follow-through limited
Fading US exceptionalism driving EMFX — Structural theme reasserting itself after technical consolidation
Global fiscal concerns driving long-end term premium — JGB and gilt sell-offs with FX spillovers
EM sovereign credit spreads at historically tight levels — Valuations priced for near-zero recession risk
EM FX structural bull case intact but tactically neutral — Overbought signal triggers step-aside
Kazakhstan emerging as a local markets opportunity — Interest from both real money and hedge funds in FX and local bonds
Carry-efficient dollar-bearish positioning — Use CAD and EM high-yielders rather than outright USD shorts
EM corporate credit at 2007-era tights — Carry buffer and stable fundamentals keeping investors invested despite tight spreads
External balances and fiscal stance as durable FX signals — Surplus and fiscally strong currencies outperforming deficit peers
French spreads: cautious after sharp tightening — Market under-appreciating budget delivery challenges for new PM Le Corneau
EM Sovereign Spreads: Grinding Tighter Absent US Break — A clear US growth or market break is needed to widen spreads from historically tight levels
EM Easing Cycles Intact Despite Growth Resilience — Disinflation and weak domestic demand keep cutting bars low
FX hedging and short-USD positioning – potential widening pressure — Real-money short-USD hedges could exert widening pressure on basis
EM fund flows turning positive after three years of outflows — Structural currency view driving renewed investor interest
EM carry resilience relative to G10 high beta — High-yield EM relatively impervious to US yield backups
Euro rates vol carry: sell gamma, buy vega — Implied vol near 2022 lows; delivered vol expected to stay muted
EMFX overweight: Goldilocks growth-inflation mix and dollar unwind push factors — EM growth upgrades and inflation downgrades historically signal strong EM performance
EM credit resilience amid rising yields — Spread stability underpinned by cycle strength; single-B yield levels a watchpoint
EM central bank divergence as second differentiation factor — Hawkish vs. dovish pivots driving EM FX performance
Fed independence risk premium in rates — Political pressure steepening the curve beyond fundamentals
UK gilt yields to drift modestly lower; curve unlikely to steepen significantly — Budget detail not expected until October/November; cross-market directionality with bunds remains strong
EM credit outperformance vs. DM investment grade — Hyperscaler issuance headwind hitting DM IG more than EM
QT envelope reduction expected at September BoE meeting — Potential skew away from long-end active sales
GPIF reallocation as yen intervention multiplier — Political pressure to shift GPIF toward domestic assets could generate large yen buying
Desynchronised global monetary policy cycles limit EM rates follow-through
CEE currencies benefit from hiking central banks and EM growth — EMEA carry supported by rate hikes for the right reasons
EM local rates independence and desynchronization — EM bonds outperforming US yields since Liberation Day
Reserve manager diversification away from USD — COFR and TIC data suggesting structural selling
EM corporate earnings supporting spread resilience — 30% EBITDA growth expected for EM corporates in 2026
Swap spreads and G-spread versus Z-spread debate — Mechanical factors may offer marginal additional value framing
EM central banks to cut more than market expects — Weaker growth and dollar providing room for easing
EM Sovereign Credit: Near historical spread lows, driven more by oil than Fed — Selective opportunities as valuations are tight; technicals remain supportive
EM local markets: light positioning provides constructive starting point — Valuation signals mixed; positioning indicators more informative
Ukraine financing visibility supports asset sentiment — Financing assured through 2026-2027; GDP warrants complicated by weak growth
Idiosyncratic political/election cycles dominating country selection — Post-election regime changes in Colombia and Hungary; election risk in Brazil and Argentina
Reserve manager dollar diversification continues — COFER data shows no dramatic shift but structural trend intact
EM sovereign credit: solid cyclical backdrop, oil exporter entry opportunities — Hedges against Middle East escalation no longer warranted
EM sovereign credit at historically tight spreads — Valuations pricing near-steady-state recession risk vs. economists' 40% estimate
UK rates: BOE November cut bar raised by stronger data — Fiscal noise and inflation surprises cloud near-term easing path
Monetary policy desynchronization supports non-Asia EM — Imminent Fed cuts historically trigger sharp dollar repricing
US tariff shock larger than embedded in EM growth forecasts — August 1st deadline and IEEPA legal uncertainty compound risk
AI and CapEx spend as a small FX tailwind for select currencies — Tech and IP investment concentrated in US and select Asian and European economies
EM sovereign credit spreads look expensive; negative bias maintained — Spreads-year lows; asymmetric risk to the downside
Frontier markets: still consensus bullish, moving down the liquidity spectrum — Fiscal reforms, weaker dollar, commodity tailwinds and insulation from geopolitics sustaining outperformance
Carry remains a consistent return driver into H2
Commodity Terms of Trade: Precious Metals and Copper Exporters Underreacting — Currency betas to commodity prices lag the move, creating opportunity
US-Iran Interim Agreement: Energy market normalization pressuring oil exporters — Oil price revision from ~$100 to low $70s per barrel reshaping EM credit dynamics
Bank of England on hold, QT envelope reduction expected — September meeting likely to maintain gradual easing language
US real yields approaching reversal point — Two-sigma move historically marks topping out
UK long-end gilt term premium: no value at multi-decade highs — 30-year yields at 5.6% since 1998; fiscal uncertainty keeps curve steepening bias
LATAM politics as key driver: Argentina, Ecuador, Bolivia — U.S. engagement in the region adds a cross-cutting theme
Dutch pension fund indexation and 10-30s curve dynamics — Mixed historical evidence; structural steepening bias maintained
Hawkish Fed: Higher real yields, lower break-evens — worst combination for EM — New Fed Chair Walsh presides over hawkish shift without forward guidance
Last-mile RRF absorption driving investment peak — 2026 could mark a historical peak in EU funds inflows
Steeper yield curves as natural next move — Dovish front-end repricing vs. upside risks to long rates
Bond vigilantes as de facto monetary tightening — Long-end sell-off may substitute for or force Fed hikes
CNB most hawkish in EMEA but hike pricing likely to deflate — Markets pricing ~55bp of additional tightening vs ING forecast of no further hikes
Joint US-Japan yen intervention as containment — Bilateral action limits upside in USD/JPY but does not change fundamentals
New era of US FX activism via the ESF — Washington increasingly willing to use the Exchange Stabilization Fund for geopolitical and economic objectives
CEE FX relief from softer dollar post-FOMC — Softer USD dominates initial EM reaction; rates steepening bias in dovish central banks
Domestic savings repatriation as yen support — NISA reform adjustments could reduce persistent Japanese capital outflows
Weaponisation of currencies and FX fragmentation — Geopolitical tensions reshaping global currency markets
Ukraine conflict triggers global risk aversion and energy price surge — Stagflation risks compound existing central bank tightening dilemma
Central bank divergence drives FX — Loose vs. tight monetary policy creates currency winners and losers
Swedish economy entering subdued growth phase — From post-pandemic strength to headwinds
USD to power on amid global stress — Dollar smile supports USD in multiple scenarios
Sweden's economy weakening from a strong position — Rate hikes and high inflation dampening growth and labour market
Sweden's economy off balance in 2023 — Debt vulnerability tested by dramatic change in financial conditions
Global turning point: China reopening and European energy relief — Positive surprises possible in 2023 after a difficult 2022
Norwegian economic stagnation in 2023 — Eroding purchasing power offsets petroleum sector strength
Stubborn core inflation forcing prolonged central bank tightening — Developed economies face sticky service and wage inflation
Sweden's post-pandemic excess deflating — Rate hikes, housing correction and weak consumption drag on growth
Norwegian economy more resilient than expected — Higher rates needed for longer; NOK to recover gradually
Higher rates for longer — Only rate cuts are excluded for now
Swedish economic contraction and slow recovery — Tight monetary policy and weak domestic demand drag on growth
Norwegian economy cooling but no severe downturn — Resilient but not invincible
Norges Bank rate cycle: peak near, cuts distant — Policy rate likely peaking at 4.25% with cuts not expected until 2025
Swedish economy past its worst, gradual recovery ahead — Rate cuts arriving just in time to avert deeper contraction
NOK weakness explained by interest rate differentials and Norway's diminished relative excellence — A decade of structural shifts underpinning NOK depreciation
Gradual central bank rate normalization — Fed and ECB on quarterly 25bp cut paths
Norwegian economic upswing — Household purchasing power recovery driving growth
Danish economy entering calmer period after volatile years — Inflation under control, rate cuts ahead, pharmaceutical sector driving growth
US Election Outcome and Market Impact — Republican sweep vs Harris victory vs divided government
Trump presidency as an inflationary USD driver — Short-term USD bullish, long-term highly uncertain
Monetary policy divergence: US vs Europe — Higher neutral rate in US than Europe drives USD strength
US-Rest-of-World Economic Divergence Fuelling USD — Fed pauses while ECB and others keep cutting
US dollar: cyclical weakness without structural demise — Trump administration threading the needle on dollar policy
Global fiscal expansion and bond market risks — DM fiscal packages driving long-end yield pressure
Risks to market resilience — Three vol shocks but no broader VAR event — can it last?
EM policy flexibility from dollar weakness and benign inflation — EM central banks gaining room to ease amid currency strength
U.S. vs. Rest-of-World inflation divergence — U.S. faces sticky/higher prices; EM faces deflation/disinflation
Dollar diversification, not de-dollarization — Structural overweight unwind driving USD weakness
Trade wars and stagflation risk — Liberation Day tariffs bigger than expected with broad global growth implications
Carry Trade Unwind Risk — Bond market volatility as the key catalyst
US Exceptionalism: Overstated Reversal — Subtle narrative shifts but structural dollar and US dominance intact
America First and global trade fragmentation — Tariffs reshaping global trade corridors and creating new winners
Trump policy pro-cyclicality and inflation resurgence — Tariffs, fiscal stimulus, and deregulation could re-flate the U.S. economy
Fed easing cycle as global EM unlocker — EM central banks waiting on the Fed to begin their own easing
EM local currency opportunity as dollar weakens — Real rates improving as EM inflation falls
US-China economic divergence — Midlife crisis meets coming of age
Excess global liquidity and re-acceleration of global growth — Over 160 central bank rate cuts in 2025 have created highly accommodative financial conditions
Global growth divergence: Asia strength vs Western slowdown — What lies beneath the headline global growth number
Demand destruction vs. inflation: the timing mismatch — Markets pricing inflation but ignoring growth hit
End of US dollar exceptionalism — Cyclical decline, not structural demise
Year of Two Halves — Recession in H1, potential recovery in H2
USD multi-year appreciation trend at risk
Inflation vs. Recession — Conflicting Narratives — Stagflationary environment creates difficult choices for policymakers and investors
Shift from monetary to fiscal easing — Global growth drivers transitioning in 2026
No Fed rate hikes surprise — A tail risk that could roil all asset classes
Haves vs Have-Nots: Fiscal and Monetary Divergence — Early rate hikers and commodity exporters outperform; fiscally constrained economies struggle
EM divergence: policy flexibility separates haves from have-nots — Oil shock accelerating divergence between resilient and vulnerable EM economies
EM and ASEAN value opportunity — Heavy discounts may already price in known risks
Beyond the Middle East conflict: H2 macro outlook — Peace deal progress reduces tail risk but normalization will take time
Global liquidity fuelling broad asset rally — Central bank easing driving risk premium compression across asset classes
US exceptionalism overstated — recovery lifting many boats — Asia-led growth challenges the US-centric narrative
AI investment as a structural growth driver — Concentrated but powerful tailwind for Asian exporters
Low volatility despite high uncertainty — Markets assigning too-high probability to narrow-range base case
Bear steepening of yield curves as precursor to EM spread widening — Fiscal pressure and rising debt supply threaten sovereign and corporate credit
Resource nationalism and the commodity bull run — Geopolitical leverage over key inputs injecting structural risk premium
Oil shock risk for EM Asia — Supply-driven oil spike as a stagflationary threat
Fiscal Divergence: DM Risk vs EM Resilience — Role reversal in fiscal sustainability concerns
Fiscal stimulus surge and bond yield shock — US 30-year yields at 6% and Japanese 30-year yields at 4.5% are underpriced risks
Re-dollarisation in Asia — Asia FX expected to underperform in 2026
EM diversification catch-up trade — After 15 years of structural underperformance, EM assets are rebalancing versus DM
US dollar structural outperformance — Rate differentials, capital flows, and AI productivity converging in dollar's favor
Global growth slowdown and Fed easing cycle — 50bp cut now expected; US loses G10 high-yielder status
Limited EM spillover from DM fiscal stimulus — Financial channel headwinds offset trade channel benefits
DM fiscal expansion risks disorderly rise in long-term yields — Higher DM borrowing costs threaten EM spillover in H2-2025
EM asset outperformance and dollar diversification — Global investor flows yet to match EM performance
EM central banks gaining policy flexibility — Weaker USD gives EM room to ease
Inflation divergence: U.S. vs. rest of world — Disinflation and deflation pressures outside the U.S. while stagflation risk builds domestically
China Fiscal Stimulus as Key Upside Risk — Growing probability of fiscal expansion and private sector warming
China stimulus and deflation export risk — Fiscal firepower underutilised; risk of exporting deflation
Policy divergence as a source of volatility — ECB cutting while Fed may hike creates EM and DM FX stress
China slowdown and disinflation spillovers — Excess capacity exporting disinflation through trade channels
Growth divergence: East outpacing West — Asia and EM powering global growth while DM struggles
End of cheap money — Structurally higher inflation ahead
China consumer-led recovery, non-inflationary — Different from previous cycles
Asian economic outperformance — Growth divergence favours Asian currencies
EM vs DM Divergence — Asia and EM to outpace developed markets significantly
Gold vs crypto as safe haven
Dollar Strength as a Global Headwind — USD at multi-decade highs hurts everyone
Stagflation Risk: Inflation Up, Growth Down — Central banks face the dilemma of tightening into slowing growth
Yield curve inversion signals policy mistake — Recession risk even with rates barely normalised
China growth stabilisation — Policy easing to defend above-5% growth ahead of party congress
Global rate-hiking cycle re-emerges — EM and DM central banks tightening to contain imported inflation
Bipolar recovery — haves and have-nots — Uneven vaccine rollout exacerbating divergence within and across DM and EM
Global shift toward monetary tightening — From easing to tightening across most major central banks
Frontier market resilience under threat — Capital inflows stable YTD but second-half risks rising
Gold demand explosion — Safe haven surge if USD falls and growth fears mount
China: Near-Term COVID Drag, Second-Half Recovery — Fiscal stimulus and Party Congress support a second-half rebound
Fiscal-monetary policy transition — Shift from monetary easing to fiscal stimulus
China Stimulus and Recovery Limits — Fiscal stimulus may not restore growth to target
Fed panic cut scenario — 200bp cut surprise
Economic scarring and steeper yield curves — Fiscal strain feeding into a potential negative spiral
China Reopening — Domestic-led recovery with upside risk in H2
Credit crunch risk as rate hike cycle bites — Tightening lending standards and shrinking regional bank balance sheets
Net zero transition and capital costs — Expensive upfront investment with efficiency risks
Global fragmentation and structural inflation — Supply chain reshoring and resource nationalism driving higher long-run costs
Japanese yen strengthening and carry trade unwind — Repatriation of Japanese overseas savings could destabilize global markets
Fiscal dominance replacing monetary policy — Governments shifting to fiscal as the primary growth lever
China fiscal stimulus surprise — Kitchen-sink stimulus scenario trillion RMB
China deflation export risk — Domestic demand weakness amplifies EM deflationary pressures
EM FX vulnerability to dollar strength — High-yield African markets as idiosyncratic opportunities
AI boom at risk from energy shock and input supply disruption — Short-term chip input shortages and medium-term productivity drag
Reciprocal Tariffs: Non-Tariff Barriers the Key Risk — Universal tariffs and VAT inclusion could broaden tariff scope significantly
Structural shift in trade corridors — Redirection of supply chains away from the U.S.
Inflation divergence: US upside vs. rest-of-world disinflation — Tariffs and fiscal stimulus create a two-speed inflation world
Increased frequency of idiosyncratic volatility shocks — Gap risk rather than sustained high volatility
China's export redirection and competitive pressure on EM — Short-term benefit for EM consumers, medium-term risk for EM corporates
Transition from Monetary to Fiscal Stimulus
China fiscal stimulus delayed, export momentum fading — H1 outperformance may mask H2 slowdown
Trade policy uncertainty persisting — IEEPA court ruling and alternative tariff tools in focus
AI and productivity: US exceptionalism risk — AI-driven productivity gains not yet reflected in FX and fixed income
China export destination diversification — Chinese exports shifting from G3 to Global South
EM debt burden and medium-term vulnerability — Sub-investment-grade EM most at risk; multilateral support critical
Super El Niño risk and regional food inflation — 80% probability of super El Niño developing this year
Gold recovery after safe-haven breakdown — Forced liquidation over; constructive outlook as scarring themes take hold
Bull steepening vs. bear steepening yield curve risk — Fragile balance with implications for EM external funding
South-South trade as a resilient growth corridor — ASEAN-Middle East trade growing despite global headwinds
EM fiscal space under threat — External funding needs rising as global rates stay elevated
Dollar diversification and alternative asset outperformance — Market no longer compelled to hold overweight dollar positions
Net Zero Transition as a Capex Opportunity — Recession entry point for the next green capex cycle
EM Policy Constraints Under Dollar Strength — Currency weakness as double-edged sword amid global supply chains
US curve steepening risk premium — Back-end steepening independent of Fed rate path
Dollar safe-haven correlation breakdown — USD falling alongside risky assets — a break from historical norms
AI investment timing mismatch — CapEx front-loading vs. uncertain revenue timeline
China Reflation Premature — Consumer impairment and lack of forceful stimulus
Resource nationalism and structural commodity short economies — North Asia vs LATAM divergence
Global food price collapse fuelling deflation fears
Oil price rally to $90 as an underpriced risk for Asia — Market positioning heavily skewed toward further oil price declines
India as a resilient domestic-demand-driven growth story — Relative immunity to trade uncertainty supports above-6% growth
US Dollar Has Peaked — Focus on relative value FX opportunities
Fiscal stimulus narratives across U.S., Europe and China — Devil is in the details
Emerging markets in a sweet spot but risks lurk — Fed pause is necessary but not sufficient for EM outperformance
De-dollarization and trade corridor evolution — Diversification without demise
China's evolution as engine of global growth — Workforce expansion, value-chain upgrade and rising consumer class
Fiscal limits and bear steepening of yield curves — Bond markets signalling tolerance for sovereign borrowing may be near its limit
Asian FX under pressure from carry and energy import dynamics — Structural USD demand offsetting strong export performance
Commodity demand remains robust — Counter-consensus view on energy and agricultural prices
Inflation complacency risk — Central banks may face a policy dilemma in 2026
Oil price upside as black swan risk — Geopolitical tensions could trigger a renewed energy price surge
US dollar reasserting dominance — Correlation shift: risk-on now USD-positive
EM central bank credibility at risk — Political interference could trigger broader EM asset selloff
GCC AI investment boom — Gulf economies leveraging energy cost advantage for AI infrastructure
EM and frontier market local currency bonds showing sticky investor demand — High nominal and real yields attracting participation despite global uncertainty
AI and tech bubble risk: 40% Nasdaq decline — Lending practices in AI and data center space echo late 1990s tech bubble
US exceptionalism downgrade — Tariff uncertainty creating blowback to US economy
BoJ Policy Normalization and JPY as Risk Hedge — Dollar-yen as vehicle for expressing negative view on risk assets
Emerging trade corridors as underappreciated growth driver — GCC–South Asia–ASEAN–North Asia and Asia–LatAm
EM intra-regional trade deepening — South-South and Middle East-Africa trade corridors expanding
RMB internationalisation: parallel ecosystems, not dollar replacement — Growing RMB role alongside a persistent dollar-based system
Trump Nobel Peace Prize scenario — Ceasefires in Middle East and Ukraine as legacy-driven policy
Erosion of global economic buffers — Diminishing policy space and market cushions increase vulnerability
Fiscal stress and bond market steepening — Government borrowing concerns driving term premium higher
De-dollarization: Structural Story Overstated — RMB internationalisation as parallel ecosystem, not dollar replacement
Productivity Divergence and Inflation — US tariff inflation offsetting productivity gains
Services trade and non-tariff barriers as the next front — Digital and services tariff risk opens a new negotiating dimension
Republican midterm sweep sends 2024 signal — US political landscape reshaping
Oil price and Gulf geopolitics — Uncertainty reduction in Strait of Hormuz
σ2.46%+0.1σ
σ1.44%-1.2σ
σ0.97%-1.2σ
Positioning vs Consensus
Where smart money disagrees with the banks
Three independent reads on each major currency, lined up on one axis — bullish or bearish the currency against the dollar. Sell-side bank consensus (mean Dec-2026 target vs spot), leveraged-money positioning from the CFTC Commitments of Traders report, and the market forecast poll. Today the groups disagree on EUR, GBP, JPY, CHF, CAD, MXN — speculators are positioned against the bank call, the kind of split that tends to precede a squeeze or a forecast revision.
Directional comparison of sell-side bank consensus, CFTC speculative positioning, the market forecast poll, and cross-broker retail (crowd) positioning for major currencies versus the US dollar.
Currency
Banks
Speculators · CFTC
Market poll
Retail · crowd
Agreement
EUR
EUR/USD
BearishSell EUR
Bearish−65.2K (−8.5K wow)
Bullish@ 1.16231
Bearish42% long / 58% short
Divergent
GBP
GBP/USD
BearishSell GBP
Bullish+41.1K (+7.9K wow)
Neutral@ 1.34262
Bearish24% long / 76% short
Divergent
JPY
USD/JPY
BullishBuy JPY
Bearish−102.0K (−5.8K wow)
Bullish@ 160.09
Bearish53% long / 47% short
Divergent
CHF
USD/CHF
BullishBuy CHF
Bearish−9.6K (−750 wow)
Bullish@ 0.80775
Bearish60% long / 40% short
Divergent
CAD
USD/CAD
BullishBuy CAD
Bearish−102.5K (−4.1K wow)
Bullish@ 1.39244
Bullish49% long / 51% short
Divergent
MXN
USD/MXN
BearishSell MXN
Bullish+63.8K (+9.3K wow)
—
Bearish52% long / 48% short
Divergent
AUD
AUD/USD
BullishBuy AUD
Bullish+27.6K (+2.8K wow)
Bullish@ 0.71215
Bearish21% long / 79% short
Aligned
NZD
NZD/USD
BearishSell NZD
Bearish−30.0K (+1.1K wow)
Neutral@ 0.58845
Bullish51% long / 49% short
Aligned
BRL
USD/BRL
BearishSell BRL
Bearish−7.8K (−8.6K wow)
—
—
Aligned
Bank consensus aggregated from sell-side investment-bank research. Speculative positioning from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission Commitments of Traders report (non-commercial net contracts; positive = net long the currency). Market poll from a third-party market forecast survey. Retail (crowd) long/short positioning blended across broker crowds (Myfxbook Community Outlook and Dukascopy SWFX). Bullish/bearish is expressed for the foreign currency against the US dollar.