Forecast Performance Tracker
How accurately each bank's 2024 FX forecasts called actual 2025 rates — ranked by mean absolute error and directional hit rate, scored against the market print.
Firm Leaderboard
All 8 firms ranked by forecast accuracy
| # | Firm | Avg Error | Direction | G10 Error | EM Error | Best Call | Worst Call | Published |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | 4.0% | 87%(13/15) | 4.9% | 2.8% | AUD(0.0%) | SEK(9.8%) | 20 November 2024 | |
| #2 | 5.5% | 87%(13/15) | 6.3% | 4.3% | CAD(1.4%) | SEK(10.9%) | 22 November 2024 | |
| #3 | 6.3% | 80%(12/15) | 7.0% | 5.2% | CAD(0.8%) | SEK(14.2%) | 25 November 2024 | |
| #4 | 7.2% | 67%(10/15) | 7.6% | 6.5% | NZD(0.2%) | SEK(16.4%) | 29 November 2024 | |
| #5 | 7.9% | 60%(9/15) | 8.0% | 7.7% | NZD(0.2%) | SEK(17.5%) | 18 November 2024 | |
| #6 | 9.0% | 20%(3/15) | 8.4% | 9.9% | JPY(0.9%) | SEK(19.6%) | 2 December 2024 | |
| #7 | 10.5% | 20%(3/15) | 10.1% | 11.0% | JPY(0.9%) | SEK(22.9%) | 15 November 2024 | |
| #8 | 13.2% | 20%(3/15) | 12.4% | 14.3% | INR(0.3%) | SEK(25.1%) | 28 November 2024 |
Accuracy vs Direction
Best performers in the top-left quadrant
| Firm | Avg Error (%) | Direction (%) |
|---|---|---|
| ING | 4.0 | 87 |
| JPM | 5.5 | 87 |
| MUFG | 6.3 | 80 |
| Barclays | 7.2 | 67 |
| MS | 7.9 | 60 |
| BofA | 9.0 | 20 |
| Goldman | 10.5 | 20 |
| DB | 13.2 | 20 |
Average Forecast Error
Lower is better — mean absolute error
| Firm | Avg Error (%) |
|---|---|
| ING | 4.0 |
| JPM | 5.5 |
| MUFG | 6.3 |
| Barclays | 7.2 |
| MS | 7.9 |
| BofA | 9.0 |
| Goldman | 10.5 |
| DB | 13.2 |
Direction Accuracy
Correctly predicted USD direction?
| Firm | Direction Correct (%) |
|---|---|
| ING | 87% |
| JPM | 87% |
| MUFG | 80% |
| Barclays | 67% |
| MS | 60% |
| BofA | 20% |
| Goldman | 20% |
| DB | 20% |
Biggest Surprises of 2025
Currencies where consensus got it most wrong
See the full per-firm tearsheet — per-currency win/loss, progress-to-target & error detail from all 28 desks
The cross-firm consensus above is free. Per-firm attribution against live rates — each desk's progress-to-target, win/loss heatmap and per-currency error — is part of the paid tier.
FX BANK FORECAST · COVERAGE
Institutional FX coverage in your inbox
Aggregated year-end forecasts, scenario shifts, and curated analyst notes from eight institutional desks. No promotion.