Crude Oil WTI
2026 Projections · 13 Banks
Energy Commodities Research
Crude Oil
WTI / Brent
2026 price projections from 13 leading investment banks.
Forecast Landscape
Sentiment Breakdown
Key Themes
OPEC+ Supply Unwind
bearishOPEC+ gradually unwinding 2.2 mb/d of voluntary cuts through 2026. Pace of unwind and member compliance are key variables for price direction.
Non-OPEC Supply Growth
bearishUS, Brazil, Guyana, and Canada driving record non-OPEC supply growth of ~1.8 mb/d. Shale productivity gains moderating but absolute output at records.
China Demand Slowdown
bearishChina oil demand growth slowing to 200-300 kb/d as EV adoption accelerates and real estate weakness persists. Petrochemical demand partially offsetting transport decline.
Geopolitical Risk Premium
bullishMiddle East tensions, Russia-Ukraine conflict, and potential Iran sanctions keep a geopolitical risk premium embedded. Supply disruption risk remains elevated.
Upstream Underinvestment
bullishYears of underinvestment in upstream exploration creating long-term supply risks. New project approvals running well below replacement rates.
Energy Transition Impact
bearishEV adoption, renewable energy buildout, and efficiency gains beginning to materially impact oil demand growth trajectory. Peak demand debate intensifying.
Driver Emphasis Matrix
How many firms cite each driver
OPEC+ Production
Current production vs quotas (mb/d)
Cross-Asset YTD
Key Correlations
Oil price drivers & relationships
Moderate inverse — weaker dollar supports oil prices
Strong positive — manufacturing activity drives oil demand
Moderate inverse — risk-off tends to weigh on oil
Strong positive — China is the marginal demand driver
Strongest single driver — supply discipline dictates prices
Inverse — more rigs signal future supply growth
Positive — transport fuels still ~60% of demand
Weak positive — both are commodities but different drivers
Seasonal Patterns
Historical monthly average returns
| Month | Avg Return | Positive Rate | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan | -1.2% | 42% | Post-holiday demand dip |
| Feb | +1.5% | 55% | Refinery maintenance ends |
| Mar | +0.8% | 52% | Spring refinery runs |
| Apr | +2.1% | 60% | Pre-driving season build |
| May | +1.8% | 58% | Driving season begins |
| Jun | +0.5% | 50% | Peak gasoline demand |
| Jul | -0.3% | 46% | Summer plateau |
| Aug | -0.8% | 44% | End of driving season |
| Sep | -1.5% | 40% | Weakest month historically |
| Oct | +0.5% | 50% | Heating season positioning |
| Nov | -0.5% | 45% | OPEC meeting volatility |
| Dec | +0.3% | 48% | Year-end positioning |
Historical Context
WTI average & year-end prices
| Year | Avg Price | Year-End | Event |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $39 | $48 | COVID crash, negative prices |
| 2021 | $68 | $75 | Demand recovery, OPEC+ cuts |
| 2022 | $95 | $80 | Russia-Ukraine, $130 spike |
| 2023 | $78 | $72 | Banking stress, OPEC+ cuts |
| 2024 | $76 | $71 | Range-bound, geopolitical risks |
| 2025 | $71 | $67 | Supply growth, demand slowing |
Firm Forecasts
Mizuho
Takeshi Higashifukasawa · 13 March 2026
WTI crude oil surged from the mid-$60s at end-February to a high of $119.48/bbl on March 9 following US-Israel military operations against Iran and a de facto blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Prices have since retreated but remain elevated in the $90/bbl range. The report analyses the economic impact on Japan assuming oil prices remain at $100/bbl throughout 2026, finding that total value added would decline by approximately 1.2%, with manufacturing hit hardest (down 2.3%).
HSBC
Kim Fustier · 22 January 2026
Most bullish among majors. Argues market underestimates upstream underinvestment risks. OPEC+ discipline has been better than expected. Geopolitical risks and Asian demand provide upside.
Goldman Sachs
Daan Struyven, Callum Bruce · 10 February 2026
Range-bound view with mild downward bias. OPEC+ discipline is fraying but spare capacity provides a floor. Geopolitical risks keep a premium embedded. Sees Brent $72 avg for 2026.
Morgan Stanley
Martijn Rats · 5 February 2026
Neutral outlook with supply growth slightly outpacing demand. OPEC+ managing an orderly unwind of cuts. Petrochemical feedstock demand partially offsetting weak transport fuel demand.
ANZ
Daniel Hynes · 12 February 2026
Moderately cautious with focus on OPEC+ discipline as the key swing factor. India emerging as the primary demand growth driver. Atlantic basin oversupplied but Asian imports robust.
UBS
Giovanni Staunovo · 15 February 2026
Expects a balanced market with a gradual drift lower. OPEC+ output increases are manageable if demand holds. China stimulus measures could surprise to the upside.
Wells Fargo
Investment Institute Team · 25 January 2026
Expects a range-bound market between $60-75. OPEC+ provides a floor near $60 through production discipline. US economic resilience supports domestic demand. Below-average inventories limit downside.
Barclays
Amarpreet Singh · 30 January 2026
Balanced view with gradual OPEC+ unwind largely priced in. Sees demand growth of ~1.0 mb/d as achievable. Shale productivity gains are moderating which limits non-OPEC upside.
J.P. Morgan
Natasha Kaneva · 20 February 2026
Expects oil to weaken through the year as OPEC+ gradually unwinds production cuts. US shale resilience and slowing Chinese demand growth create a bearish supply-demand balance in H2.
Bank of America
Francisco Blanch · 28 January 2026
Among the more bearish forecasters. Sees structural headwinds from EV adoption and non-OPEC supply growth overwhelming any OPEC+ cuts. Warns of sub-$50 in recession scenario.
Deutsche Bank
Michael Hsueh · 8 February 2026
Bearish outlook driven by expected oversupply in H2. Non-OPEC supply additions from US, Brazil, and Guyana creating a structural surplus. Inventories building toward multi-year highs.
Macquarie
Vikas Dwivedi · 1 February 2026
Bearish on structural oversupply thesis. OPEC+ losing market share as non-OPEC producers (US, Brazil, Guyana) ramp output. Energy transition beginning to materially impact demand growth.
Citi
Max Layton · 15 January 2026
Most bearish on Wall Street. Sees oil heading to $55 by year-end as a massive surplus builds. OPEC+ cuts insufficient to offset non-OPEC supply growth and weakening demand growth.
Explore
All firm projections, quarterly targets & revision timeline
Conviction scatter, dispersion, risk-reward matrix & WTI-Brent spread
Key drivers, OPEC+ dynamics, energy transition & supply-demand balance
Support & resistance levels, seasonal patterns & inventory analysis
Scenario framework, geopolitical risks, correlations & historical context
Forecast accuracy analysis — how each firm performed vs actual prices
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Aggregated year-end forecasts, scenario shifts, and curated analyst notes from eight institutional desks. No promotion.