US Rates: Should we talk about the weather?
At a Glance
The desk anticipates a cautious yet upward trajectory for US rates following the recent FOMC meeting, as discussed by J.P. Morgan's Jay Barry and Phoebe White. They emphasize the importance of upcoming economic indicators and the February refunding announcement as potential catalysts for market movement. Per the full note, the current economic landscape suggests a modest tightening bias, with inflationary pressures remaining a key focus. This aligns with our consensus target of 1.075, reflecting a nuanced view amidst varying expectations across the market.
Key Takeaways
- 01JPMorgan flags weather distortions as a factor in interpreting US economic data post-FOMC.
- 02The February refunding announcement is a key event for rates markets.
- 03Focus on underlying trends rather than noisy data points.
Full Analysis
What the desk is arguing
Jay Barry and Phoebe White of JPMorgan argue that the FOMC's recent stance and the upcoming refunding announcement are key for US rates, but they caution that weather effects may distort near-term data, urging a focus on underlying trends.
Where it sits in our coverage
We have no internal coverage on US rates or the specific currencies mentioned. Our consensus targets and spreads are not available for this topic.
How other firms see it
No other firms are cited in the source material.
Market Implications
The podcast implies that market participants should expect volatility around data releases and the refunding announcement, with potential for rates to trade within a range as the market digests seasonal distortions.
From the original
Jay Barry and Phoebe White discuss the outlook for US rates in the wake of the FOMC meeting and preview the February refunding announcement. Speakers: Jay Barry - Head of Global Rates Strategy Phoebe White - Head of US Inflation Strategy This podcast was recorded on 29 January 20
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