Euro: Focus shifts to 1.1570 support versus US Dollar – UOB
The Euro is currently testing critical support at 1.1570 against the US Dollar. With the spot price at 1.1500, there is heightened risk of a breakdown below this level, which could invite further USD strength. The bearish sentiment surrounding the Euro is notable, especially with a technical breakdown looming that could confirm market concerns. Observing the interplay between USD momentum and this support level will be crucial in the coming sessions.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target currently stands at 1.1900 for June 2026, reflecting a median across multiple firms, with projections ranging from a low of 1.1100 by Citi to a high of 1.2500 from Goldman. This diverging outlook underscores differing views on the Euro’s ability to reclaim higher ground amidst recent weakness.
How firms align
Goldman and Deutsche Bank project a stronger Euro, both highlighting targets of 1.2100 for June 2026. In contrast, Citi's target of 1.1100 suggests a more pessimistic stance, opposing the broader consensus and current price action. This split in expectations is something to monitor strategically, as shifts in sentiment may influence positioning.
What the data shows
Recent analysis reveals a substantial gap between the current spot price and the consensus targets, with the Euro trading approximately 4% below expectations for December 2026. Published research underscores this discrepancy, as seen in /research/eurusd-consensus-divergence-may-2026-20260513-1605, suggesting potential market overreactions that may influence trader outlooks going forward.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01EUR/USD nearing pivotal 1.1570 support; breakdown risks loom.
- 02Traders should monitor USD strength as it relates to Euro's resilience.
- 03Watch for external catalysts that could lead to a quick USD bounce.
- 04Potential volatility as markets react to technical levels in the near term.
Market implications
Next week, traders should keep an eye on the 1.1570 support level; breaking this could trigger further declines. Additionally, upcoming economic data released from the US could bolster the USD further, impacting EUR/USD dynamics significantly, especially against our consensus of 1.1900 for June.
Risks to this view
A clear reversal in the Euro’s fortunes could occur if macroeconomic indicators reveal unexpected strength in the Eurozone or weakening in the US economy, possibly shifting the USD's bullish narrative and altering traders' positions significantly.
Sentiment by currency
USD+EUR-JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: +0.60
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
Euro: Limited downside against US Dollar with ECB hike message – MUFG
ECB's continued hike messaging supports EUR/USD floor around current levels; limited downside signals reduced momentum for USD longs.
Euro: Gains capped against US Dollar by Fed story – ING
Fed rate expectations remain supportive of USD strength, structurally limiting EUR/USD upside despite recent euro resilience.
EUR/USD Price Forecast: 20-day EMA remains key barrier as Iran uncertainty persists
Euro slips as Hormuz firefight revives US Dollar demand
Geopolitical risk in Persian Gulf elevates safe-haven demand, likely to support USD/JPY parity and cap EUR/USD downside until tensions clarify.
Bank desks on this topic
FX Daily: Iran fall-out coming home to roost in EUR/USD
https://think.ing.com/articles/fx-daily-iran-fall-out-coming-home-to-roost-in-eur-usd/
FX Daily: Iran fall-out coming home to roost in EUR/USD
https://think.ing.com/articles/fx-daily-iran-fall-out-coming-home-to-roost-in-eur-usd/
FX Daily: Iran fall-out coming home to roost in EUR/USD
EUR/USD was hit in March on expectations that the stagflationary shock from Iran would resonate more in Europe than the US. The inflationary effects have been plain for all to see, but this week's release of European PMIs warns that the stagnationary effect is just starting to la
Morgan Stanley: How Much Will FX Hedging Flows Boost EUR/USD? - eFXdata
Morgan Stanley: How Much Will FX Hedging Flows Boost EUR/USD? eFXdata
Cross-firm research
EUR/USD Trades 3.16% Below Dec-26 Consensus as 18 Firms Hold 1.20 Median
With spot at 1.1621 and the 18-firm median Dec-26 target at 1.20, EUR/USD sits 3.16% below consensus—a gap that demands explanation.
EUR/USD Trades 3.2% Below Dec-26 Consensus as Targets Cluster Near 1.20
Spot at 1.1612 sits 3.2% below the 18-firm median Dec-26 target of 1.20, exposing a consensus that remains structurally bullish EUR despite the pair's failure to close the gap.
EUR/USD Trades 4% Below Dec-26 Consensus: What the Gap Reveals
EUR/USD spot at 1.1711 sits 4.01% below the eight-firm median Dec-26 target of 1.22, exposing a structural tension between macro conviction and current tape.