EUR/USD Price Forecast: Remains above 1.1700 near 50-day EMA
EUR/USD is holding above 1.1700 near the 50-day EMA, with technical support underpinning the pair. The headline's focus on near-term resilience contrasts with our consensus data showing spot trading well below the Dec-26 median target of 1.2000, a gap we have highlighted in our recent divergence research. This suggests market participants are pricing in downside risks not fully captured by long-dated forecasts. The technical resilience may be tested if broader USD strength persists amid shifting rate expectations.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target stands at 1.2000 for Dec26 (range 1.1200–1.2500), with current spot at 1.1500—roughly 4% below. The most bearish outlier is Citi (Mar26 1.1300, Jun26 1.1100, Dec26 1.1200), while Goldman and Deutsche Bank are the most bullish (Dec26 1.2500). Fxstreet's neutral framing aligns more closely with the consensus median, with firms like JPMorgan (1.1800/1.2000/1.2000) and UBS (1.2000 across all tenors) in a similar range.
How firms align
Goldman and Deutsche Bank, both with Dec26 targets of 1.2500, are the most bullish, while Citi stands alone at the bearish extreme with a Dec26 target of 1.1200. The headline's technical support view is echoed by many firms in the middle of the consensus, but the persistent gap between spot and forecasts suggests the near-term stability may not translate into a sustained rally without a clear catalyst.
What the data shows
All 11 firms in our coverage set their latest targets on 2026-05-05, with most maintaining bullish long-term views. Our recent research series (e.g., /research/eurusd-divergence-consensus-gap-may-2026-20260513-1605) highlights that EUR/USD was trading 4% below the Dec-26 consensus, underscoring the divergence between market pricing and analyst projections.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01EUR/USD holds above 1.1700 near 50-day EMA, but spot at 1.1500 is ~4% below Dec-26 consensus median of 1.2000.
- 02Consensus is heavily skewed bullish, but the range is wide (1.1200–1.2500), with Citi as the sole bearish outlier.
- 03A sustained break below 1.1700 may trigger further downside toward consensus lows; watch 1.1300 as a key support.
- 04Divergence between spot and forecasts suggests either a catch-up rally or a downward revision to consensus.
Market implications
Watch for a breakout above 1.2000 (consensus midpoint) to confirm bullish momentum, or a break below 1.1700 (current support) that could accelerate selling toward 1.1300 (Citi's Mar26 target). The June 2026 ECB meeting and FOMC rate decisions will be key catalysts to align spot with forecasts. Our consensus median of 1.2000 for Dec26 remains the benchmark for fair value.
Risks to this view
A sharp USD rally on hawkish Fed surprise or geopolitical risk could push EUR/USD below 1.1500, invalidating the near-term support view. Conversely, if ECB signals more aggressive tightening, spot could converge quickly toward consensus targets. The wide firm-level dispersion means any policy shift could trigger outsized moves.
Sentiment by currency
USD~EUR~JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: +0.00
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
Euro: Limited downside against US Dollar with ECB hike message – MUFG
ECB's continued hike messaging supports EUR/USD floor around current levels; limited downside signals reduced momentum for USD longs.
Euro: Gains capped against US Dollar by Fed story – ING
Fed rate expectations remain supportive of USD strength, structurally limiting EUR/USD upside despite recent euro resilience.
EUR/USD Price Forecast: 20-day EMA remains key barrier as Iran uncertainty persists
Euro slips as Hormuz firefight revives US Dollar demand
Geopolitical risk in Persian Gulf elevates safe-haven demand, likely to support USD/JPY parity and cap EUR/USD downside until tensions clarify.
Bank desks on this topic
FX Daily: Iran fall-out coming home to roost in EUR/USD
https://think.ing.com/articles/fx-daily-iran-fall-out-coming-home-to-roost-in-eur-usd/
FX Daily: Iran fall-out coming home to roost in EUR/USD
https://think.ing.com/articles/fx-daily-iran-fall-out-coming-home-to-roost-in-eur-usd/
FX Daily: Iran fall-out coming home to roost in EUR/USD
EUR/USD was hit in March on expectations that the stagflationary shock from Iran would resonate more in Europe than the US. The inflationary effects have been plain for all to see, but this week's release of European PMIs warns that the stagnationary effect is just starting to la
Morgan Stanley: How Much Will FX Hedging Flows Boost EUR/USD? - eFXdata
Morgan Stanley: How Much Will FX Hedging Flows Boost EUR/USD? eFXdata
Cross-firm research
EUR/USD Trades 3.16% Below Dec-26 Consensus as 18 Firms Hold 1.20 Median
With spot at 1.1621 and the 18-firm median Dec-26 target at 1.20, EUR/USD sits 3.16% below consensus—a gap that demands explanation.
EUR/USD Trades 3.2% Below Dec-26 Consensus as Targets Cluster Near 1.20
Spot at 1.1612 sits 3.2% below the 18-firm median Dec-26 target of 1.20, exposing a consensus that remains structurally bullish EUR despite the pair's failure to close the gap.
EUR/USD Trades 4% Below Dec-26 Consensus: What the Gap Reveals
EUR/USD spot at 1.1711 sits 4.01% below the eight-firm median Dec-26 target of 1.22, exposing a structural tension between macro conviction and current tape.