Commentary

How have interest rate expectations changed after this week's events?

Rate hikes by year-end RBNZ: 76 bps (70% probability of no change at the next meeting) ECB: 64 bps (88% probability of rate hike at the next meeting) BoE: 48 bps (83% probability of no change at the next meeting) BoJ: 46 bps (75% probability of rate hike at the next meeting) BoC:

Decisions taken by the Governing Council of the ECB (in addition to decisions setting interest rates)

Decisions taken by the Governing Council of the ECB (in addition to decisions setting interest rates) May 2026 22 May 2026 Macroprudential policy and financial stability Financial Stability Review – May 2026 On 20 May 2026 the Governing Council held an exchange of views on euro a

ECB President Lagarde says ECB will follow a data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting approach

Full report here Lagarde declined to provide specific guidance regarding the ECB’s upcoming June 11 meeting. She emphasized that the bank will maintain a "data-dependent" and "meeting-by-meeting" approach to ensure inflation returns to its 2% target. She highlighted the energy pr

The US Blockade of Iran after Six Weeks

Much of the commentary on the US blockade says it's failed, but that's total nonsense

ECBs Lane:Monetary policy decisions will continue to be made on a meeting-by-meeting basis

ECBs Lane gave a speech at a Dinner event. Below are the main commentary on the Economy/Policy. Supply-driven energy shocks hurt euro area growth: Lane said oil-price increases caused by supply disruptions — especially geopolitical events — tend to lower euro area GDP growth by a

Taking Stock of the US Blockade

There's endless commentary that the blockade has failed, but that's total nonsense