Global Commodities: Running the Numbers on Gas
Iran's permission for commercial vessels to transit the Strait of Hormuz has eased some supply concerns, but persistent infrastructure outages in the Middle East and recent shipments already dispatched to key destinations keep the market on edge. J.P. Morgan's analysis highlights lingering uncertainty, with updated supply-demand observations for oil and aluminum.
What the desk is arguing
J.P. Morgan notes that despite Iran's signal on the Strait of Hormuz, significant infrastructure shut-ins across the Middle East persist, and last shipments from the Gulf have already arrived in Europe, Asia, and the US. The market's sharp reaction reflects relief but also caution as uncertainty remains high. The desk answers pressing questions on supply and demand dynamics for oil and aluminum, based on observations recorded on April 24, 2026.
Where it sits in our coverage
Given the lack of internal coverage on the relevant currencies, we have no consensus or firm spread to cite. This analysis stands alone, focusing on commodity-specific factors rather than FX implications.
How other firms see it
No other firms' stances are available in the provided source; the analysis is exclusively based on J.P. Morgan's commentary.
Key takeaways
- 01Iran allowing vessels through the Strait of Hormuz triggered a sharp market reaction, but infrastructure shut-ins remain significant.
- 02Recent Gulf shipments have already reached major regions, providing some buffer against supply disruptions.
- 03J.P. Morgan addresses key market questions on oil and aluminum supply-demand balances amid ongoing uncertainty.
Market implications
The easing of shipping restrictions may temporarily weigh on energy and commodity prices if supply continues to flow, but the persistence of infrastructure outages could provide support. Aluminum and oil markets remain sensitive to geopolitical developments in the Middle East.
Risks to this view
Further escalation in regional tensions or renewed shipping restrictions could reverse the current easing. Conversely, a rapid resolution of infrastructure issues could lead to excess supply and downward price pressure.
Markets reacted sharply to Iran allowing commercial vessels to go through the Strait of Hormuz. Despite this signal, last shipments from the Gulf have arrived across Europe, Asia and the US, while significant infrastructure shut-ins persist across the Middle East. With much uncertainty still in the air, in this episode we answer the market’s most pressing questions, as well as discuss the recent supply and demand observations in oil and aluminum.
Speakers: Otar Dgebuadze, European Natural Gas Artem Fakhretdinov, Oil This podcast was recorded on April 24, 2026. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5273094-0 , https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5272895-0 , https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5272398-0 , https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5270096-0 , and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5269595-0, for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co.
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