Global Rates: Where next for CB and rates as the Middle-East conflict persists?

J.P. Morgan Global Research discusses how the ongoing Middle-East conflict is influencing US, Euro area, and UK rate markets ahead of central bank meetings, recorded on March 13, 2026.

What the desk is arguing

J.P. Morgan analysts argue that the Middle-East conflict is adding uncertainty to global rate markets, with central banks likely to remain cautious. The podcast examines how geopolitical risks may delay rate cuts or alter policy paths in the US, Euro area, and UK, with a focus on upcoming meetings.

Where it sits in our coverage

This aligns with our consensus view that geopolitical risks are a key driver for rates, though we have no internal coverage data on the specific currencies mentioned. Our firm spread remains neutral across G10 rates.

How other firms see it

No other firm views are provided in the source material.

Key takeaways

01Middle-East conflict persists, influencing global rate expectations.
02Central bank meetings in US, Euro area, and UK are key focus points.
03Geopolitical risk premium likely to keep rates elevated in the near term.

Market implications

Investors should expect continued volatility in rate markets as geopolitical tensions persist, with central banks potentially delaying policy normalization. Curve steepening trades may be favored if risk-off sentiment persists.

Risks to this view

Key risks include an escalation of the conflict, which could trigger flight-to-safety flows and further disrupt rate expectations, or a swift de-escalation leading to a sharp reversal in risk premiums.

JPM

In this podcast Francis Diamond, Jay Barry and Aditya Chordia discuss the impact of the ongoing Middle-East conflict on US, Euro area and UK rate markets and upcoming central bank meetings. This podcast was recorded on March 13, 2026. This communication is provided for information purposes only.

Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5230864-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P.

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Sources & References