Citi New Zealand Dollar To Yen Forecast: Deeper Pullback Ahead After Rally Falters - Exchange Rates Org UK

What the desk is arguing

Citi projects that the New Zealand dollar to yen pair may experience a deeper pullback after showing signs of faltering in its recent rally. This perspective is based on observed price actions suggesting a loss of upward momentum, which often precedes a retracement as traders reassess their positions amidst fluctuating risk sentiments.

Moreover, the anticipated pullback aligns with historical patterns observed in similar currency movements and current macroeconomic indicators, hinting that external factors like changing interest rates and commodity price fluctuations can further influence the NZD/JPY dynamics. Essentially, Citi seems to be cautioning traders against overly bullish positions, arguing that the market could realign in favor of the yen in the upcoming trading sessions.

Where it sits in our coverage

Our consensus target for the NZD/JPY stands at 1.075, with a spread between 1.04 and 1.12. This aligns somewhat with Citi's cautious outlook, although our view remains less pessimistic about the New Zealand dollar's immediate potential, suggesting a more stable trading range rather than a deep correction.

Firms contributing to the coverage include: - JPMorgan: Target of 1.10 for Mar-26. - Barclays: Target of 1.08 for Mar-26. - Goldman Sachs: Target of 1.12 for Mar-26.

How other firms see it

While Citi adopts a more bearish stance, other firms display a diverse range of perspectives. Firms like JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs continue to maintain a more bullish outlook on the NZD/JPY pair, suggesting confidence in the currency's resilience against the yen.

• JPMorgan: Aligned, target 1.10, Mar-26.
• Goldman Sachs: Aligned, target 1.12, Mar-26.
• BofA: Contrary, target 1.04, Mar-26.