Name: Investment Bank FX Research Directory
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LIVE

05:58 PMConflict keeps midstream compelling, integrateds see a pipeline of cash 04:38 PMIn Focus: Equity & Credit Update on AI CapEx 12:24 AMBarclays warns yen recovery likely temporary despite Tokyo's $35bn intervention 10:33 PMUS Rates - I won’t see you next time 08:06 PMGlobal Commodities: It’s Simple Math 05:22 PMGlobal FX: Yen intervention, re-assessing USD bearish view, central bank rundown 09:05 PMMorgan Stanley delays Fed cut call to 2027 (more info). Middle East risk drives dollar 09:02 PMEM Fixed Income: To every thing there is a season 11:51 AMTiff Macklem: Release of the Monetary Policy Report 09:05 AMChristina Papaconstantinou: Central banks and independence - a test for democracy 05:58 PMConflict keeps midstream compelling, integrateds see a pipeline of cash 04:38 PMIn Focus: Equity & Credit Update on AI CapEx 12:24 AMBarclays warns yen recovery likely temporary despite Tokyo's $35bn intervention 10:33 PMUS Rates - I won’t see you next time 08:06 PMGlobal Commodities: It’s Simple Math 05:22 PMGlobal FX: Yen intervention, re-assessing USD bearish view, central bank rundown 09:05 PMMorgan Stanley delays Fed cut call to 2027 (more info). Middle East risk drives dollar 09:02 PMEM Fixed Income: To every thing there is a season 11:51 AMTiff Macklem: Release of the Monetary Policy Report 09:05 AMChristina Papaconstantinou: Central banks and independence - a test for democracy

Barclays

FX Outlook 2026: Navigating the Turn

LIVE28 November 2025USD bearish

Overview Forecasts Trades Currencies Scenarios Technicals Volatility EM Strategy Macro Quant

FX Research · Year-End 2026

28 November 2025USD bearish

Themistoklis Fiotakis · Lefteris Farmakis

ACCURACY · 2023–2024

46.7%Hit rate

650 bpsAvg error

43.3%Direction

#5 of 8Rank

Sample: 30 forecasts·See methodology·View coverage: FX Outlook 2026: Navigating the Turn

ACCURACY · 2023–2024

Performance Snapshot

On Track

Off Track

Forecasts

Active Trades

+0.0%

Total P&L

0.0%

Avg Progress

DXY

100.2

Target: 95

EUR/USD

1.15

Target: 1.21

USD/JPY

157

Target: 149

USD Bias

BEARISH

DXY Forecast Path

Target 95

USD Sensitivity Analysis

UK fiscal clarity premium

Budget delivers credible fiscal path

+2 to 3% on GBP/USD

Fed-BoE rate differential

-50bp narrowing in Fed-BoE spread

+1.5% on GBP/USD

EUR range dynamics

EUR/USD breaks above 1.20 resistance

Opens path to 1.25 on momentum

EM carry-to-vol ratio

EM carry-to-vol stays above 1.5x

-1 to 2% on USD vs EM carry basket

Commodity demand shock

+15% rise in base metals

+3% on AUD, NOK; -1.5% on USD TWI

Top Currency Pairs

8 pairs

Pair	Direction	Status	Spot	Live	Dec 26	vs Spot	vs Live
TRY	Sell TRY	--	42.45	--	51.5	-17.6%	--
HUF	Buy HUF	--	332	--	300	+10.7%	--
PLN	Buy PLN	--	3.67	--	3.35	+9.5%	--
NOK	Buy NOK	--	10.25	--	9.4	+9.1%	--
SEK	Buy SEK	--	9.54	--	8.8	+8.4%	--
AUD	Buy AUD	--	0.64	--	0.69	+7.8%	--
GBP	Buy GBP	--	1.31	--	1.41	+7.6%	--
ZAR	Buy ZAR	--	17.31	--	16.1	+7.5%	--

Explore Report Sections

Forecasts

Exchange rate targets across G10 & EM

Trades

Active trade ideas with P&L tracking

Currencies

Deep-dive views per currency pair

Scenarios

Macro scenario analysis & stress tests

Technicals

Chart patterns, support & resistance

Volatility

FX volatility surface & carry

EM Strategy

Emerging market FX & rates

Macro Quant

Quantitative signals & models

Macro Trade Themes

Navigating the Turn

Selective USD shorts

The dollar is turning lower but the path will not be straight. We advocate selective USD shorts rather than broad-based bearishness. Focus on currencies with clear fundamental catalysts -- GBP on fiscal clarity, EUR on rate convergence, and select EM on carry. Avoid overcommitting to aggressive USD targets given residual US growth resilience.

Sterling Renaissance

GBP top pick on fiscal clarity

GBP is our highest conviction G10 call. The UK budget has provided fiscal clarity that removes the Truss premium, while the BoE's hawkish stance maintains carry appeal. UK growth resilience and improving productivity metrics support GBP outperformance vs both EUR and USD. GBP/USD 1.41 and EUR/GBP below 0.86 by year-end.

EUR Range Trade

EUR/USD bounded 1.15-1.25

EUR/USD will strengthen but within a defined range. The upper bound at 1.25 reflects full pricing of German fiscal stimulus and Fed easing; the lower bound at 1.15 represents US growth resilience. Trade the range with a moderate bullish bias, targeting 1.21 by year-end.

EM Carry Selective

Long TRY, ZAR funded by JPY

EM carry remains attractive but selectivity is crucial. TRY and ZAR offer the best risk-adjusted carry when funded by JPY. Avoid broad EM baskets and focus on idiosyncratic stories with improving fundamentals. Election risk in Brazil warrants options-based exposure.

Commodity Upside

AUD/NOK on commodity demand

Green transition metals demand and energy security spending create a structural bid for commodity currencies. AUD and NOK are best positioned: AUD from base metals demand and RBA higher-for-longer, NOK from oil prices and European fiscal spillover. Express via AUD/NZD and NOK/SEK for relative value.

Compare with Other Firms

J.P. Morgan Goldman Sachs Morgan Stanley Bank of America Deutsche Bank MUFG ING

FX BANK FORECAST · COVERAGE

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Aggregated year-end forecasts, scenario shifts, and curated analyst notes from eight institutional desks. No promotion.