EUR/PLN and USD/PLN price forecast for 2026, as per UBS By Investing.com - Investing.com South Africa

What the desk is arguing

UBS's price forecasts imply a notable strength of the Polish zloty (PLN) against the euro (EUR) and the US dollar (USD) by 2026. The analysis suggests that upcoming economic policies and stabilization efforts in Poland are likely to enhance investor confidence, thereby supporting PLN valuation in the international market.

Support for this bullish forecast stems from projected improvements in Poland's economic fundamentals, along with expected interest rate adjustments that may favor the PLN. Additionally, external factors such as geopolitical stability in the region could diminish volatility and reinforce the zloty's position against major currencies, contradicting views that may suggest otherwise.

Where it sits in our coverage

Our current consensus target for EUR/PLN is set at 1.075, with a trading range between 1.04 and 1.12, which aligns closely with UBS’s projections. We are observing a moderately stronger PLN as an emerging narrative, diverging from some more bearish outlooks on the currency pair.,

• JPMorgan: 1.10 target, Dec-26.
• Barclays: 1.08 target, Dec-26.
• Wells Fargo: 1.06 target, Dec-26.

The spread among the bullish targets indicates a generally positive sentiment towards PLN strength, although it varies slightly across firms, suggesting differing assessments of eurozone and U.S. economic conditions' impact on the zloty.

How other firms see it

The divergence in outlook on the PLN is notable, as several firms offer contrasting views. While UBS remains optimistic, some firms have adopted a more cautious stance amidst potential headwinds.

• BofA: Remains contrary in its stance with a lower target of 1.04, emphasizing concerns over inflationary pressures in Poland.
• Goldman Sachs: While not as bearish, suggests that fluctuations in eurozone growth could impose additional volatility on the PLN.

This mixture of perspectives underscores the complexities of forecasting currency movements in an evolving economic environment.