Pound to Euro Forecast: Buy Dips to 1.1430, March 2026 Target 1.1765 say UBS - CurrencyNews.co.uk

What the desk is arguing

The desk views the GBP/EUR exchange rate as likely to move higher, recommending positions around the 1.1430 mark as UBS suggests aiming for a level of 1.1765 by March 2026. This bullish sentiment is underpinned by projected economic resilience and potential shifts in monetary policy that could favor the pound.

UBS’s specific target of 1.1765 echoes broader positive sentiment in the market, as traders anticipate adjustments in ECB policy and UK economic performance metrics. These factors could align to bolster the pound, particularly if inflation trends evolve favorably in the coming quarters.

Where it sits in our coverage

Our consensus view includes a target range for GBP/EUR, with jpmorgan targeting 1.10 and bofa at 1.04 for March 2026. This demonstrates a divergence in outlook, especially given UBS's more aggressive target at 1.1765, emphasizing the potential for upward surprises in the pair and identifying UBS's position at the upper end of the spectrum among the analyzed firms.

How other firms see it

Alongside UBS's bullish stance, jpmorgan also supports a positive outlook, indicating a general consensus among certain firms favoring a stronger pound. In contrast, bofa remains cautious regarding the euro's strength, reflecting a wider divergence in expectations.

Given the potential for shifting monetary policy from both the Bank of England and the European Central Bank, traders should also keep an eye on the correlations presented in related pairs like EUR/USD, as these may signal broader trends in EUR performance against major currencies.