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Aggregated year-end forecasts, scenario shifts, and curated analyst notes from 37 institutional desks. No promotion.

ECB & the EUR: common questions

Date	Event	Country	Impact	Consensus	Previous
2026-09-24	New Car Sales YoY (Jul)	EU	Med	7.5%	—
2026-09-24	New Car Sales YoY (Aug)	EU	Med	11%	13.6%
2026-09-24	ECB Economic Bulletin	EU	Med	—	—
2026-09-25	CFTC EUR speculative net positions	EU	Med	—	-27 K
2026-09-29	Economic Sentiment (Sep)	EU	Med	97.5	98.4
2026-10-01	ECB General Council Meeting	EU	Med	—	—
2026-10-01	Unemployment Rate (Aug)	EU	High	6.4%	6.4%
2026-10-02	Core Inflation Rate YoY (Sep)	EU	Med	2.5%	2.4%

When is the next ECB meeting?

The next European Central Bank (ECB) policy decision is scheduled for Oct 29. Because European Central Bank sets monetary policy for the EUR, its rate decisions and forward guidance are among the most important scheduled catalysts for EUR exchange rates, and sell-side FX desks reposition their EUR forecasts around each meeting. FX Bank Forecast tracks how the major investment banks' EUR targets shift before and after ECB decisions, so you can see whether the consensus is moving with the policy path or diverging from it. Watching the cross-bank reaction to each meeting is often a more durable signal than any single house call.

What is the ECB's current policy stance?

European Central Bank's current policy lean reads as hawkish, based on its most recent decisions and guidance. A more hawkish stance — biased toward higher-for-longer rates — tends to be supportive of the EUR, while a dovish, easing-biased stance tends to weigh on it, though the market reaction always depends on what was already priced in. What matters for EUR forecasting is less the stance in isolation than how it compares with what investment banks expected and how it shifts the projected rate path. FX Bank Forecast aggregates how 37 major banks read the ECB path and translates it into where the EUR consensus and its dispersion sit.

How does the ECB affect the EUR?

Monetary-policy expectations are one of the dominant drivers of currency moves, so European Central Bank's decisions — and, just as importantly, how they compare with other central banks — feed directly into where strategists set their EUR targets. Relative policy paths (the ECB versus the Fed and other majors), the pace of cuts or hikes, and the tone of guidance are the channels through which ECB actions transmit into the EUR. FX Bank Forecast compares the published EUR forecasts of 37 major investment banks side by side and shows how that consensus — and the spread of views around it — shifts as the ECB outlook evolves.

See the EUR bank consensus and how it shifts around ECB decisions

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Policy-rate trajectory

Bank Consensus on EUR

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ECB & the EUR: common questions

When is the next ECB meeting?

What is the ECB's current policy stance?

How does the ECB affect the EUR?