European Central Bank (ECB) | FX Bank Forecast

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19:50ZUS Rates: Climb a mountain and turn around 18:28ZGlobal FX: USD debate corner post mid-terms, payrolls, BoE 17:16ZGlobal Commodities: A surplus of agri risks 16:28ZWill US Stocks Repeat History?16:11ZWhat’s next for the US after the US mid-term elections?14:14ZGlobal Rates: Systematic trading of EUR rates gamma – a new model 14:02ZRobust US jobs market boosts December rate hike chances 13:44ZConsumer resilience 13:41ZMore signs of life in Hungary’s economy 11:45ZCEE & CCA week ahead: Polish GDP and regional inflation data 19:50ZUS Rates: Climb a mountain and turn around 18:28ZGlobal FX: USD debate corner post mid-terms, payrolls, BoE 17:16ZGlobal Commodities: A surplus of agri risks 16:28ZWill US Stocks Repeat History?16:11ZWhat’s next for the US after the US mid-term elections?14:14ZGlobal Rates: Systematic trading of EUR rates gamma – a new model 14:02ZRobust US jobs market boosts December rate hike chances 13:44ZConsumer resilience 13:41ZMore signs of life in Hungary’s economy 11:45ZCEE & CCA week ahead: Polish GDP and regional inflation data

FX BANK FORECAST · COVERAGE

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Aggregated year-end forecasts, scenario shifts, and curated analyst notes from 38 institutional desks. No promotion.

ECB & the EUR: common questions

Date	Event	Country	Impact	Consensus	Previous
2026-11-11	ECB Lagarde Speech	EU	Med	—	—
2026-11-11	ECB President Lagarde Speech	EU	Med	—	—
2026-11-12	ECB Economic Bulletin	EU	Med	—	—
2026-11-12	ECB President Lagarde Speech	EU	Med	—	—
2026-11-12	ECB Lagarde Speech	EU	Med	—	—
2026-11-13	Employment Change YoY (Q3)	EU	High	0.3%	0.5%
2026-11-13	Employment Change QoQ (Q3)	EU	High	0.2%	0.1%
2026-11-13	Balance of Trade (Sep)	EU	Med	-4.5 B	-16.1 B

When is the next ECB meeting?

The next European Central Bank (ECB) policy decision is scheduled for Dec 17. Because European Central Bank sets monetary policy for the EUR, its rate decisions and forward guidance are among the most important scheduled catalysts for EUR exchange rates, and sell-side FX desks reposition their EUR forecasts around each meeting. FX Bank Forecast tracks how the major investment banks' EUR targets shift before and after ECB decisions, so you can see whether the consensus is moving with the policy path or diverging from it. Watching the cross-bank reaction to each meeting is often a more durable signal than any single house call.

What is the ECB's current policy stance?

European Central Bank's current policy lean reads as hawkish, based on its most recent decisions and guidance. A more hawkish stance — biased toward higher-for-longer rates — tends to be supportive of the EUR, while a dovish, easing-biased stance tends to weigh on it, though the market reaction always depends on what was already priced in. What matters for EUR forecasting is less the stance in isolation than how it compares with what investment banks expected and how it shifts the projected rate path. FX Bank Forecast aggregates how 38 major banks read the ECB path and translates it into where the EUR consensus and its dispersion sit.

How does the ECB affect the EUR?

Monetary-policy expectations are one of the dominant drivers of currency moves, so European Central Bank's decisions — and, just as importantly, how they compare with other central banks — feed directly into where strategists set their EUR targets. Relative policy paths (the ECB versus the Fed and other majors), the pace of cuts or hikes, and the tone of guidance are the channels through which ECB actions transmit into the EUR. FX Bank Forecast compares the published EUR forecasts of 38 major investment banks side by side and shows how that consensus — and the spread of views around it — shifts as the ECB outlook evolves.

See the EUR bank consensus and how it shifts around ECB decisions

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Policy-rate trajectory

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ECB & the EUR: common questions

When is the next ECB meeting?

What is the ECB's current policy stance?

How does the ECB affect the EUR?