European Central Bank (ECB) | FX Bank Forecast

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13:50ZMonitoring Turkey: Geopolitical relief to support disinflation 13:15ZSurprise US job weakness casts serious doubt on Fed rate hikes 12:40ZCould copper lose its tariff premium?11:30ZCEE & CCA week ahead: Polish GDP and inflation, and Romania rate decision 10:50ZHungarian inflation hits 10-year low 10:32ZTHINK Ahead: This is what’s really keeping central banks up at night 07:07ZUBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Trading into consumer demand'06:45ZFX Daily: High-stakes payrolls 06:28ZRates Spark: More guidance from jobs data than the Fed 05:49ZGerman industry shows surprising resilience in June 13:50ZMonitoring Turkey: Geopolitical relief to support disinflation 13:15ZSurprise US job weakness casts serious doubt on Fed rate hikes 12:40ZCould copper lose its tariff premium?11:30ZCEE & CCA week ahead: Polish GDP and inflation, and Romania rate decision 10:50ZHungarian inflation hits 10-year low 10:32ZTHINK Ahead: This is what’s really keeping central banks up at night 07:07ZUBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Trading into consumer demand'06:45ZFX Daily: High-stakes payrolls 06:28ZRates Spark: More guidance from jobs data than the Fed 05:49ZGerman industry shows surprising resilience in June

FX BANK FORECAST · COVERAGE

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Aggregated year-end forecasts, scenario shifts, and curated analyst notes from 35 institutional desks. No promotion.

ECB & the EUR: common questions

Date	Event	Country	Impact	Consensus	Previous
2026-08-07	CFTC EUR speculative net positions	EU	Med	—	-72.4 K
2026-08-13	Industrial Production MoM (Jun)	EU	Med	0.2%	-0.2%
2026-08-14	Employment Change YoY (Q2)	EU	Med	0.5%	0.5%
2026-08-14	Balance of Trade (Jun)	EU	Med	5 B	-7.8 B
2026-08-14	Employment Change QoQ (Q2)	EU	Med	0.1%	0.1%
2026-08-18	ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (Aug)	EU	Med	20 Points	23.4 Points
2026-08-21	S&P Global Services PMI (Aug)	EU	Med	51.5 Points	51.7 Points
2026-08-21	S&P Global Composite PMI (Aug)	EU	Med	51.6 Points	52 Points

When is the next ECB meeting?

The next European Central Bank (ECB) policy decision is scheduled for Sep 11. Because European Central Bank sets monetary policy for the EUR, its rate decisions and forward guidance are among the most important scheduled catalysts for EUR exchange rates, and sell-side FX desks reposition their EUR forecasts around each meeting. FX Bank Forecast tracks how the major investment banks' EUR targets shift before and after ECB decisions, so you can see whether the consensus is moving with the policy path or diverging from it. Watching the cross-bank reaction to each meeting is often a more durable signal than any single house call.

What is the ECB's current policy stance?

European Central Bank's current policy lean reads as neutral, based on its most recent decisions and guidance. A more hawkish stance — biased toward higher-for-longer rates — tends to be supportive of the EUR, while a dovish, easing-biased stance tends to weigh on it, though the market reaction always depends on what was already priced in. What matters for EUR forecasting is less the stance in isolation than how it compares with what investment banks expected and how it shifts the projected rate path. FX Bank Forecast aggregates how 35 major banks read the ECB path and translates it into where the EUR consensus and its dispersion sit.

How does the ECB affect the EUR?

Monetary-policy expectations are one of the dominant drivers of currency moves, so European Central Bank's decisions — and, just as importantly, how they compare with other central banks — feed directly into where strategists set their EUR targets. Relative policy paths (the ECB versus the Fed and other majors), the pace of cuts or hikes, and the tone of guidance are the channels through which ECB actions transmit into the EUR. FX Bank Forecast compares the published EUR forecasts of 35 major investment banks side by side and shows how that consensus — and the spread of views around it — shifts as the ECB outlook evolves.

See the EUR bank consensus and how it shifts around ECB decisions

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ECB & the EUR: common questions

When is the next ECB meeting?

What is the ECB's current policy stance?

How does the ECB affect the EUR?