ECB
European Central Bank
Deposit facility
2.25%
as of 2026-06-19
Last decision
▼ CUT 25BPS
Next meeting
Jul 17
T-25d
Bias
HAWKISH
The European Central Bank sets the policy rate for the eurozone with a primary mandate of price stability. The Governing Council holds monetary policy meetings eight times per year.
Why It Matters for FX Markets
Sets the deposit facility rate for the euro area, the second-most-traded currency block in the world. ECB decisions move EUR/USD, the world's most-traded currency pair, and shape funding conditions across all 20 euro-area economies.
Meeting Schedule (2026)
Jan 30Mar 6Apr 17Jun 5Jul 17Sep 11Oct 30Dec 17
Policy decisions are announced on the dates above. Source: official central bank schedules.
Primary Currency
EUR
Cross-firm view, consensus targets, and live rate
Deposit facility
2.25%
As of 2026-06-19
EUR 2026 consensus
1.20
median of 27 banks
EUR net longs (CFTC)
-17,388
latest as of
-29,415 WoW
Next macro event
New Car Sales YoY (May)
Recent Commentary on ECB
Updated 5 days ago5 most-recent items prefer LLM synthesis where available
UBS ON AIR
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Fed fun'
Lead — The desk believes the Federal Reserve will maintain its current interest rates, reflecting the broader trend of central banks balancing accommodative and restrictive policies. Per the full…
Ubs
ING THINK
Riksbank preview: Low inflation limits hawkish scope
The desk anticipates that the Riksbank will maintain a wait-and-see approach due to persistently low inflation, which limits the central bank's capacity to adopt a hawkish stance. Per the full note…
UBS ON AIR
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'How to do a rate hike'
Lead — The Bank of Japan's decision to raise interest rates to 1% is a pivotal moment for the Japanese economy, marking its first such increase since 1995. Per the full note, this move illustrates…
Ubs
ING THINK
THINK Ahead: Are rate hikes pointless?
The ECB's rate hikes may have less immediate impact on the eurozone economy than history suggests, according to ING's James Smith. Per the full note [source], the transmission is delayed because…
UBS ON AIR
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Carrying on, without keeping calm'
The desk interprets recent commentary from UBS, indicating a growing concern within the ECB about inflationary pressures due to oil prices, despite a lack of empirical evidence supporting broadening…
Ubs
ECB Hawkish/Dovish Trajectory
100 statements scored, Apr 2026 → May 2026
Most hawkish: May 11, 2026 (Ida Wolden Bache: Policy rate raised to 4.25 percent, score +75)
Most dovish: Apr 30, 2026 (Christine Lagarde, Luis de Guindos: ECB press conference -…, score -35)
CFTC Positioning — EUR
Updated 13 days agoNon-commercial net longs over the past 8 weeks. Latest report: for ECB
Latest net
-17,388
EUR non-commercial contracts
WoW change
-29,415
-29,415 WoW
8-week trend
oldest → newest
Firm Coverage
Reports referencing ECB across covered research desks
Related Coverage
Recent News on ECB
Updated 10 days ago
fmp_forex
EURUSD – Post-ECB Recovery Faces Strong Obstacles En-Route
The latest news about potential peace deal in the Middle East also contributes to fresh positive tone, although markets…
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fmp_forex
EUR/USD Analysis: Euro struggles to gain ground after ECB decision
As the trading week approaches its close, one of the main short-term developments is the euro's loss of momentum. This…
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fmp_forex
Euro Forecast: Why the ECB Rate Hike Failed to Lift EUR/USD
The Euro struggled to build on gains after the European Central Bank delivered a widely expected 25bp rate hike, as…
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fmp_forex
Euro: Limited upside against US Dollar on fully priced ECB – ING
Euro: Limited upside against US Dollar on fully priced ECB – ING
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fmp_forex
Euro: Downside risk against US Dollar as ECB hikes – BBH
Euro: Downside risk against US Dollar as ECB hikes – BBH
Read article →FX BANK FORECAST · COVERAGE
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