What Demand Destruction Actually Looks Like
From the original
Oil price alarmists foretold terrible supply disruptions, but the data tell a different story
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The Commodities Feed: Trump’s ‘Project Freedom’ pause weighs on oil prices
The desk sees downside pressure on oil prices as a result of the recent hiatus in Trump's 'Project Freedom', which aimed to boost U.S. energy independence. Per the full note from ING, oil prices have already been negatively impacted, with recent price movements reflecting concerns over prolonged supply-chain disruptions. The academic viewpoint emphasizes the geopolitical ramifications, noting that price volatility hinges on policy direction and government engagement with energy markets. In light of no significant economic events on the calendar, traders are advised to keep an eye on evolving developments in energy policy.
Global Commodities: What are the Markets Missing?
The desk believes that the ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are creating significant upward pressure on commodity prices, particularly in energy markets. Per the full note by J.P. Morgan, attacks on critical energy infrastructure have intensified, leading to a precarious situation for oil and gas supplies. This backdrop is compounded by emerging signs of demand destruction in Asia, where soaring product prices are beginning to impact consumption patterns. With the consensus target for oil prices at 1.075, traders should remain vigilant as these developments unfold.