Why did the Brent oil price not go to $200?
From the original
The reason oil prices didn't spike to crazy levels is because this shock just isn't that big
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4 itemsUBS Oil Price Forecast: Brent Toward $65-70 As Risk Premium Fades - Exchange Rates Org UK
UBS's forecast indicating Brent crude oil prices settling between $65 and $70 suggests a significant drop in risk premiums previously supporting higher prices. This shift could stem from easing geopolitical tensions and increased production from major oil-exporting nations, contributing to a more stable oil market environment. As risk factors diminish, the pricing dynamics in oil markets will likely adjust accordingly, possibly influencing FX movements related to oil-exporting currencies.
The Commodities Feed: Oil drops as hopes for Persian Gulf resolution grow
Per the full note [source], ING Economics argues that oil's recent selloff reflects growing market optimism for a diplomatic resolution in the Persian Gulf, which would ease supply disruption fears. The desk sees this as a sentiment-driven move rather than a fundamental shift, with Brent crude dropping over 3% on the session. The narrative gains weight as geopolitical risk premiums unwind, but ING warns that without a tangible agreement, the downside may be limited. Key near-term catalysts include official statements from regional powers and weekly US inventory data.