FX BANK FORECAST · COVERAGE
Aggregated year-end forecasts, scenario shifts, and curated analyst notes from 36 institutional desks. No promotion.
Live cross-firm bank consensus across 36 desks — FX, oil & gold
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The reason oil prices didn't spike to crazy levels is because this shock just isn't that big
Per the full note [source], Brent crude has breached $90/bbl as Persian Gulf escalation disrupts vessel flows through the Strait of Hormuz, with only 2 outbound oil tankers transiting today. The desk argues that the risk of Bab el-Mandeb closure by Houthis, combined with the imminent end of US SPR releases, leaves the oil market vulnerable to further price spikes. While no FX pair is explicitly cited, the rally supports energy-linked currencies (CAD, NOK) and pressures import-heavy economies (JPY, INR). Consensus among bank strategists sees Brent averaging $85-95 in Q2, with upside risks skewed by geopolitical events.