Forecasts
Forecasts
This page is part of FX Bank Forecast — an aggregator that normalises bank research PDFs into a searchable forecast and commentary database. Explore the top desks below or jump straight to the consolidated /forecasts and /reports indexes.
We refresh bank research every 15 minutes through our pdf-intake worker. New trade ideas, currency views, and quarterly forecasts surface automatically across the relevant currency, pair, and firm pages.
Top bank desks we track
INR supported by RBI reserve accumulation slowing and improving portfolio flows. India's growth premium vs EM peers provides fundamental support, though low beta limits upside.
INR steady with RBI support. Low beta limits upside but provides defensive positioning. Targeting 86.50.
BNP Paribas forecasts EUR/USD at 1.21 by Q4 2026 (5.2% higher vs current 1.15). Consistent with the report's broader thesis: "Gradual USD depreciation in an Expansion regime; EUR and high-yield EM lead, Asia FX lags". Bullish stance on EUR
Citi forecasts USD/MXN at 19.2 by Q4 2026 (4.3% lower vs current 18.4). Consistent with the report's broader thesis: "Out-of-consensus bullish USD; cyclical re-acceleration drives a stronger dollar through H1, fading into year-end". Bearish
Commerzbank forecasts AUD/USD at 0.71 by Q4 2026 (7.6% higher vs current 0.66). Consistent with the report's broader thesis: "USD under pressure on excessive Fed cuts and Fed independence concerns; EUR overvalued but USD overvaluation great
INR supported by improving portfolio flows and RBI policy shift. India growth premium provides fundamental support. Targeting 85.00.
Bullish MXN on carry, nearshoring flows, and USMCA resolution expectations. Positioning is clean after 2025 washout. Banxico's measured easing pace preserves carry advantage. MXN 13% YTD gain not overextended vs EM peers.
Latest bank commentary
What Should Japan Do?
· robin-brooks-substack· Jun 3, 2026An imagined conversation on Japan with my friends Brad Setser and Joe Gagnon
ICYMI - Fed dissenter Logan raises alarm on inflation ahead of Warsh's first meeting
· investinglive-cb· Jun 3, 2026Dallas Fed's Logan says monetary policy is not restraining the economy and warns higher rates may be needed later this year to return inflation to the 2% target. Summary: Logan says monetary policy is not restraining the economy, with financial conditions accommodative and corpor
Rates Spark: Spread exposures
ing· gmail-imap· Jun 3, 2026https://think.ing.com/articles/rates-spark-spread-exposures/
Rates Spark: Spread exposures
ing· gmail-imap· Jun 3, 2026https://think.ing.com/articles/rates-spark-spread-exposures/
Economic and event calendar in Asia Thursday, June 4, 2026 - RBA packs the agenda!
· investinglive-cb· Jun 3, 2026RBA's Michele Bullock, Governor, Sarah Hunter, Assistant Governor (Economic), and Christopher Kent, Assistant Governor (Financial Markets) will all speak in Australia's parliament. Appearance before the Senate Economics Legislation Committee (2026–27 Budget estimates). The Bank h
Fed's Logan: Increasingly concerned that higher rates could be needed this year
· investinglive-cb· Jun 3, 2026Logan is a hawk but she's getting incrementally more outspoken about price risks: Monetary policy is not restraining the economy Inflation taking too long to return to 2% Economic activity remains strong, corporate earnings 'going gangbuster' Financial conditions are accommodativ
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Aggregated year-end forecasts, scenario shifts, and curated analyst notes from eight institutional desks. No promotion.