Euro: Rangebound against US Dollar despite ECB repricing – Societe Generale
The Euro remains trapped in a range against the US Dollar, currently at 1.1500, despite recent adjustments to ECB expectations, as highlighted by Societe Generale. Market participants are keenly watching for a breakout from this range, and the current sentiment reflects a balancing of bullish and bearish pressures. This context becomes increasingly significant as forecasts among major firms project a consensus upward trajectory, aiming for the Euro to reach around 1.1700 by March 2026.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target stands at 1.1700 (median across 10 firms), with Goldman at the high end (1.1800) and Citi at the low (1.1300). Societe Generale's recent view aligns closely with our consensus, suggesting a cautious optimism toward the Euro's strength against the Dollar.
How firms align
Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan perceive the Euro holding steady, projecting targets of 1.1800 and 1.2000 respectively for March 2026. Conversely, Citi's more conservative outlook, placing the Euro at only 1.1300, contrasts starkly with the more optimistic views echoed in the market. Citigroup's positioning can be examined further in their internal report at /reports/citi.
What the data shows
Recent forecast revisions have nudged targets upward, with both ING and Commerzbank recently aligning their March projections with 1.1900. This adjustment signals a growing consensus that may influence trader sentiment. More details can be found in our published research on EUR/USD divergence, specifically /research/eurusd-divergence-consensus-vs-spot-may-2026.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01Euro on track to reach a consensus target of 1.1700 by March 2026.
- 02Traders are watching for movement beyond the current range at 1.1500.
- 03Increasing ECB expectations could catalyze Euro strength approaching 1.1800.
Market implications
Upcoming ECB announcements may provide the necessary catalysts to break the current range around 1.1500. Traders should particularly monitor inflation data and interest rate expectations as indicators for near-term positioning. Our consensus target of 1.1700 remains pivotal.
Risks to this view
A shift in US economic data could weaken the Euro's position, especially if strong job numbers bolster the Dollar. Additionally, a dovish turn from the ECB would likely reinforce current bearish sentiments on EUR/USD.
Sentiment by currency
USD~EUR~JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: +0.00
Firms mentioned
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
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Euro: Gains capped against US Dollar by Fed story – ING
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Bank desks on this topic
FX Daily: Iran fall-out coming home to roost in EUR/USD
https://think.ing.com/articles/fx-daily-iran-fall-out-coming-home-to-roost-in-eur-usd/
FX Daily: Iran fall-out coming home to roost in EUR/USD
https://think.ing.com/articles/fx-daily-iran-fall-out-coming-home-to-roost-in-eur-usd/
FX Daily: Iran fall-out coming home to roost in EUR/USD
EUR/USD was hit in March on expectations that the stagflationary shock from Iran would resonate more in Europe than the US. The inflationary effects have been plain for all to see, but this week's release of European PMIs warns that the stagnationary effect is just starting to la
Morgan Stanley: How Much Will FX Hedging Flows Boost EUR/USD? - eFXdata
Morgan Stanley: How Much Will FX Hedging Flows Boost EUR/USD? eFXdata
Cross-firm research
EUR/USD Trades 3.16% Below Dec-26 Consensus as 18 Firms Hold 1.20 Median
With spot at 1.1621 and the 18-firm median Dec-26 target at 1.20, EUR/USD sits 3.16% below consensus—a gap that demands explanation.
EUR/USD Trades 3.2% Below Dec-26 Consensus as Targets Cluster Near 1.20
Spot at 1.1612 sits 3.2% below the 18-firm median Dec-26 target of 1.20, exposing a consensus that remains structurally bullish EUR despite the pair's failure to close the gap.
EUR/USD Trades 4% Below Dec-26 Consensus: What the Gap Reveals
EUR/USD spot at 1.1711 sits 4.01% below the eight-firm median Dec-26 target of 1.22, exposing a structural tension between macro conviction and current tape.