Name: Investment Bank FX Research Directory
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05:58 PMConflict keeps midstream compelling, integrateds see a pipeline of cash 04:38 PMIn Focus: Equity & Credit Update on AI CapEx 12:24 AMBarclays warns yen recovery likely temporary despite Tokyo's $35bn intervention 10:33 PMUS Rates - I won’t see you next time 08:06 PMGlobal Commodities: It’s Simple Math 05:22 PMGlobal FX: Yen intervention, re-assessing USD bearish view, central bank rundown 09:05 PMMorgan Stanley delays Fed cut call to 2027 (more info). Middle East risk drives dollar 09:02 PMEM Fixed Income: To every thing there is a season 11:51 AMTiff Macklem: Release of the Monetary Policy Report 09:05 AMChristina Papaconstantinou: Central banks and independence - a test for democracy 05:58 PMConflict keeps midstream compelling, integrateds see a pipeline of cash 04:38 PMIn Focus: Equity & Credit Update on AI CapEx 12:24 AMBarclays warns yen recovery likely temporary despite Tokyo's $35bn intervention 10:33 PMUS Rates - I won’t see you next time 08:06 PMGlobal Commodities: It’s Simple Math 05:22 PMGlobal FX: Yen intervention, re-assessing USD bearish view, central bank rundown 09:05 PMMorgan Stanley delays Fed cut call to 2027 (more info). Middle East risk drives dollar 09:02 PMEM Fixed Income: To every thing there is a season 11:51 AMTiff Macklem: Release of the Monetary Policy Report 09:05 AMChristina Papaconstantinou: Central banks and independence - a test for democracy

ING

2026 FX Outlook

LIVE10 November 2025USD bearish

Overview Forecasts Trades Currencies Scenarios Technicals Volatility EM Strategy Macro Quant

FX Research · Year-End 2026

10 November 2025USD bearish

Chris Turner · Francesco Pesole

ACCURACY · 2023–2024

33.3%Hit rate

817 bpsAvg error

43.3%Direction

#8 of 8Rank

Sample: 30 forecasts·See methodology·View coverage: 2026 FX Outlook

ACCURACY · 2023–2024

Performance Snapshot

On Track

Off Track

Forecasts

Active Trades

+0.0%

Total P&L

0.0%

Avg Progress

DXY

100.2

Target: 95

EUR/USD

1.15

Target: 1.22

USD/JPY

157

Target: 152

USD Bias

BEARISH

DXY Forecast Path

Target 95

USD Sensitivity Analysis

Fed rate cuts

Each 25bp Fed cut

-0.5 to -0.8% on USD TWI

Eurozone fiscal expansion

+1%pt increase in EU fiscal spending

+1.5-2.0% on EUR/USD

US twin deficit widening

+1%pt widening in US fiscal deficit

-1.0 to -1.5% on USD

Global risk sentiment

VIX decline from 20 to 15

-1.5 to -2.0% on USD safe haven flows

Commodity price rally

+10% in commodity basket

+2-3% on AUD, NOK; -0.5% on USD

Top Currency Pairs

8 pairs

Pair	Direction	Status	Spot	Live	Dec 26	vs Spot	vs Live
TRY	Sell TRY	--	42.45	--	50.5	-15.9%	--
AUD	Buy AUD	--	0.64	--	0.73	+14.1%	--
SEK	Buy SEK	--	9.54	--	8.44	+11.5%	--
NOK	Buy NOK	--	10.25	--	9.1	+11.2%	--
NZD	Buy NZD	--	0.56	--	0.62	+10.7%	--
HUF	Buy HUF	--	332	--	305	+8.1%	--
PLN	Buy PLN	--	3.67	--	3.38	+7.9%	--
ZAR	Buy ZAR	--	17.31	--	16.25	+6.5%	--

Explore Report Sections

Forecasts

Exchange rate targets across G10 & EM

Trades

Active trade ideas with P&L tracking

Currencies

Deep-dive views per currency pair

Scenarios

Macro scenario analysis & stress tests

Technicals

Chart patterns, support & resistance

Volatility

FX volatility surface & carry

EM Strategy

Emerging market FX & rates

Macro Quant

Quantitative signals & models

Macro Trade Themes

Looking Beyond the Dollar

Broad USD weakness trades

The dollar's overvaluation, widening twin deficits, and Fed easing cycle create a structural bearish USD backdrop for 2026. Position for broad-based dollar weakness across G10 and EM, with preference for high-beta and commodity-linked currencies.

Euro Fiscal Momentum

Long EUR on structural tailwinds

German fiscal expansion, EU defense spending initiatives, and the NextGenEU infrastructure pipeline provide a multi-year structural tailwind for the euro. The ECB-Fed rate convergence amplifies the move. EUR/USD should trade sustainably above 1.20 in H2 2026.

Antipodean Carry

Long AUD and NZD on yield and valuation

AUD is our top G10 pick with 14% upside to year-end target of 0.73. The RBA's reluctance to cut keeps AUD carry attractive, while deeply undervalued levels and commodity price support add to the case. NZD offers similar but smaller upside.

Scandi Value

Long NOK and SEK on deep undervaluation

Scandinavian currencies remain deeply undervalued on REER metrics. NOK benefits from oil revenues and Norges Bank's hawkish stance, while SEK is lifted by European fiscal spillovers. Both should appreciate meaningfully vs EUR in 2026.

EM Carry in Low Vol

Selective EM longs in benign environment

Low FX volatility and supportive global growth create an attractive environment for EM carry trades. Prefer high-yielding EM currencies with improving fundamentals: BRL, MXN, ZAR, and PLN. Avoid TRY given managed depreciation and political risks.

Compare with Other Firms

J.P. Morgan Goldman Sachs Morgan Stanley Bank of America Barclays Deutsche Bank MUFG

FX BANK FORECAST · COVERAGE

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Aggregated year-end forecasts, scenario shifts, and curated analyst notes from eight institutional desks. No promotion.