EUR/USD Price Forecast: Tests 50-day EMA support after slipping below 1.1700
EUR/USD slipped below the 1.1700 threshold and is now testing the 50-day EMA, signaling renewed USD strength. This technical breakdown aligns with recent bearish momentum, and a sustained break below the EMA could open the path toward our current spot of 1.1500. The move comes as markets reassess Fed vs ECB policy divergence, with rate differentials favoring the dollar. For traders, the 50-day EMA support breach is the next key directional trigger; if it holds, the sell-off may pause, but a break would reinforce the downtrend.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target sits at 1.1800 for Mar26 (median across 8 firms), with Morgan Stanley at the upper bound (1.2000) and BofA/Barclays at the lower (1.1700). The headline's bearish momentum, with spot at 1.1500, places price well below the consensus range of 1.1700–1.2000. Fxstreet's view aligns more closely with the lower third — BofA and Barclays share that bearish framing, though our consensus remains higher.
How firms align
Among our tracked firms, BofA and Barclays are most aligned with the headline's EUR-bearish view, targeting 1.1700 for Mar26. In contrast, Morgan Stanley's 1.2000 target and Goldman's 1.1800 (with a Dec26 target of 1.2500) represent a more bullish outlook. Our internal report /reports/bofa and /reports/barclays detail their EUR-negative stances, while /reports/morganstanley and /reports/goldman show a more constructive view.
What the data shows
Our recent research, /research/eurusd-consensus-divergence-may-2026, highlighted that EUR/USD consensus at 1.22 stood 3.87% above spot, pointing to persistent bearish divergence. The current technical breakdown reinforces that disparity, and the 50-day EMA test is a critical near-term level to watch.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01EUR/USD broke below 1.1700 and is testing the 50-day EMA, a key support level.
- 02A confirmed breach of the 50-day EMA could accelerate declines toward 1.1500 spot.
- 03Consensus Mar26 median target of 1.1800 is under threat; BofA/Barclays at 1.1700 are the most bearish.
- 04Fed/ECB policy divergence remains the core driver; any hawkish ECB surprise could reverse the move.
Market implications
Watch for a close below the 50-day EMA (currently ~1.1680) to confirm downside momentum, with the next target at the 100-day EMA near 1.1550. The ECB meeting minutes and US CPI data are the next catalysts. Our consensus Mar26 target of 1.1800 looks increasingly stretched unless policy expectations shift.
Risks to this view
A failure to break the 50-day EMA could trigger a short-covering rally back above 1.1700, invalidating the bearish view. An ECB hawkish surprise or a softer US inflation print would pressure the dollar and potentially reverse the trend. The catalyst would be a clear rejection of the EMA as support.
Sentiment by currency
USD+EUR-JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: +0.30
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
EUR/USD strengthens as mixed US labor data and hopes for a US-Iran deal pressure the Greenback.
Soft US labor print reduces Fed rate-hike conviction; geopolitical risk-off from Iran talks risk-off flows weaken USD safe-haven demand.
EUR/USD: Recovery eyes full retracement – Scotiabank
EUR/USD recovery momentum suggests technicians are positioning for mean reversion toward recent highs, indicating potential USD weakness into resistance.
EUR/USD: Binary path around Gulf deal – ING
EUR/USD: Oil shock, real rates and conflict risks – Commerzbank
Oil shock transmission via real rates and geopolitical premium widens USD carry advantage; EUR structural support erodes as terminal rates diverge.
Cross-firm research
EUR/USD Trades 3.87% Below Consensus: What the Gap Reveals
EUR/USD spot at 1.1727 sits 3.87% below the eight-firm median Dec-26 target of 1.22, exposing a structural divergence that demands explanation.
EUR/USD Consensus at 1.22 While Spot Sits 3.87% Below
Eight sell-side firms hold a median Dec-26 target of 1.22 for EUR/USD while spot trades at 1.1727, a gap that demands explanation.