EUR/USD Price forecast: Hits lows at 1.1620 on risk aversion, high Oil prices
The EUR/USD has dipped to 1.1620 amid rising risk aversion and high oil prices, pressuring the euro. The recent market sentiment scores indicate a bullish outlook for the USD, which is reinforcing downward pressure on the euro. As geopolitical tensions persist, the potential for a risk-off environment remains a key factor influencing currency flows, making this movement notable for traders.
Where it sits in our coverage
Currently, our consensus EUR/USD target sits at 1.1750, with the spread ranging from a low of 1.1300 from Citi to a high of 1.2500 from Goldman. This framing suggests a divergence between the consensus forecast for the medium term and the current trading level, which is significantly below consensus values.
How firms align
JPMorgan, Goldman, and ING align with a bullish perspective on the EUR/USD for March 2026, each targeting levels between 1.1800 and 1.1900. However, Citi's more bearish stance at 1.1300 reflects caution regarding potential downside risks in the eurozone economy. For further details see our internal reports on each firm's views.
What the data shows
Notably, several firms such as Goldman and ING have revised their forecasts upward for March 2026, with expectations that the euro could regain strength if sentiment stabilizes. This aligns with our published research that discusses the EUR/USD trading 4% below forecasted levels, indicating a potential for a turnaround as risk appetite improves. See /research/eurusd-consensus-divergence-may-2026-20260512-1101 for more insight.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01EUR/USD pressure at 1.1620 highlights bearish sentiment on the euro.
- 02Watch for geopolitical developments that may shift risk appetite.
- 03A key resistance level is 1.1750, the current consensus target.
- 04High oil prices could prolong USD strength if elevated.
Market implications
Traders should closely monitor if the EUR/USD continues to drift towards lower levels, particularly the 1.1620 mark. Additionally, upcoming economic indicators from Europe and developments in oil prices will be crucial. The consensus target of 1.1750 remains a focal point in evaluating potential recovery.
Risks to this view
This bearish outlook could be invalidated if there is a significant shift towards risk appetite in the markets or positive developments in eurozone economic indicators. A substantial geopolitical event that eases current tensions could also reverse sentiment rapidly.
Sentiment by currency
USD+EUR-JPY+GBP~Composite USD score: +0.65
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
Euro: Limited downside against US Dollar with ECB hike message – MUFG
ECB's continued hike messaging supports EUR/USD floor around current levels; limited downside signals reduced momentum for USD longs.
Euro: Gains capped against US Dollar by Fed story – ING
Fed rate expectations remain supportive of USD strength, structurally limiting EUR/USD upside despite recent euro resilience.
EUR/USD Price Forecast: 20-day EMA remains key barrier as Iran uncertainty persists
Euro slips as Hormuz firefight revives US Dollar demand
Geopolitical risk in Persian Gulf elevates safe-haven demand, likely to support USD/JPY parity and cap EUR/USD downside until tensions clarify.
Bank desks on this topic
FX Daily: Iran fall-out coming home to roost in EUR/USD
https://think.ing.com/articles/fx-daily-iran-fall-out-coming-home-to-roost-in-eur-usd/
FX Daily: Iran fall-out coming home to roost in EUR/USD
https://think.ing.com/articles/fx-daily-iran-fall-out-coming-home-to-roost-in-eur-usd/
FX Daily: Iran fall-out coming home to roost in EUR/USD
EUR/USD was hit in March on expectations that the stagflationary shock from Iran would resonate more in Europe than the US. The inflationary effects have been plain for all to see, but this week's release of European PMIs warns that the stagnationary effect is just starting to la
Morgan Stanley: How Much Will FX Hedging Flows Boost EUR/USD? - eFXdata
Morgan Stanley: How Much Will FX Hedging Flows Boost EUR/USD? eFXdata
Cross-firm research
EUR/USD Trades 3.16% Below Dec-26 Consensus as 18 Firms Hold 1.20 Median
With spot at 1.1621 and the 18-firm median Dec-26 target at 1.20, EUR/USD sits 3.16% below consensus—a gap that demands explanation.
EUR/USD Trades 3.2% Below Dec-26 Consensus as Targets Cluster Near 1.20
Spot at 1.1612 sits 3.2% below the 18-firm median Dec-26 target of 1.20, exposing a consensus that remains structurally bullish EUR despite the pair's failure to close the gap.
EUR/USD Trades 4% Below Dec-26 Consensus: What the Gap Reveals
EUR/USD spot at 1.1711 sits 4.01% below the eight-firm median Dec-26 target of 1.22, exposing a structural tension between macro conviction and current tape.