EUR/USD Price Forecast: Falls toward 1.1750 near nine-day EMA
EUR/USD extended its decline toward the 1.1750 area, failing to sustain a rebound above the nine-day EMA. The rejection signals persistent selling pressure, with the pair now testing a key support zone that aligns with the lower end of recent ranges. The move reinforces bearish momentum near-term, despite consensus forecasts pointing to recovery toward 1.18 by March 2026. The widening gap between spot and median targets (currently ~3.7%) underscores hesitation among institutional flows.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our median EUR/USD consensus stands at 1.1800 for March 2026, with a range spanning 1.1700 (Barclays, BofA) to 1.2000 (Morgan Stanley). Current spot at 1.1500 trades ~3.8% below the median, implying markets price in a significant risk premium or delayed recovery. The Fxstreet analysis focuses on the nine-day EMA rejection, which aligns with the lower end of our consensus distribution — BofA and Barclays share that cautious outlook.
How firms align
Morgan Stanley holds the most bullish near-term target at 1.2000 for March 2026, while Barclays and BofA sit at the bearish tail (1.1700). The headline's emphasis on downside momentum resonates with the lower third of our consensus range. JPMorgan and Goldman at the median (1.1800) suggest a more neutral stance, with no explicit alignment to the reported sell-off.
What the data shows
Recent forecast revisions over the past 14 days show no material shifts — most firms maintained their March 2026 targets, though Morgan Stanley's December 2026 target at 1.1600 (the only sub-consensus longer-dated view) suggests upside conviction is limited. Our earlier insight /research/eurusd-consensus-gap-may-2026-20260507-2336 highlighted that spot trading 3.87% below consensus reflects persistent divergence, consistent with the rejection pattern.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01EUR/USD rejection at nine-day EMA suggests further downside toward 1.1750 near-term.
- 02Spot at 1.1500 trades ~3.8% below median Mar-26 target of 1.1800; gap may persist.
- 03Bearish momentum aligned with BofA/Barclays 1.1700 target for March 2026.
- 04Morgan Stanley's Dec-26 target at 1.1600 flags potential for longer-term weakness.
Market implications
Watch for a break below 1.1700 (current consensus floor) to accelerate selling, with 1.1650 as next support. Upcoming Eurozone CPI and Fed minutes will test the narrative — higher US yields would strengthen the dollar, pressuring EUR/USD toward 1.1600.
Risks to this view
A decisive close above the nine-day EMA (~1.1780) would negate the bearish setup, targeting the 1.1800 median. ECB hawkish surprises or a softer US labor market could trigger a short-squeeze toward 1.1850, invalidating the rejection pattern.
Sentiment by currency
USD+EUR-JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: +0.45
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
Euro: Limited downside against US Dollar with ECB hike message – MUFG
ECB's continued hike messaging supports EUR/USD floor around current levels; limited downside signals reduced momentum for USD longs.
Euro: Gains capped against US Dollar by Fed story – ING
Fed rate expectations remain supportive of USD strength, structurally limiting EUR/USD upside despite recent euro resilience.
EUR/USD Price Forecast: 20-day EMA remains key barrier as Iran uncertainty persists
Euro slips as Hormuz firefight revives US Dollar demand
Geopolitical risk in Persian Gulf elevates safe-haven demand, likely to support USD/JPY parity and cap EUR/USD downside until tensions clarify.
Bank desks on this topic
FX Daily: Iran fall-out coming home to roost in EUR/USD
https://think.ing.com/articles/fx-daily-iran-fall-out-coming-home-to-roost-in-eur-usd/
FX Daily: Iran fall-out coming home to roost in EUR/USD
https://think.ing.com/articles/fx-daily-iran-fall-out-coming-home-to-roost-in-eur-usd/
FX Daily: Iran fall-out coming home to roost in EUR/USD
EUR/USD was hit in March on expectations that the stagflationary shock from Iran would resonate more in Europe than the US. The inflationary effects have been plain for all to see, but this week's release of European PMIs warns that the stagnationary effect is just starting to la
Morgan Stanley: How Much Will FX Hedging Flows Boost EUR/USD? - eFXdata
Morgan Stanley: How Much Will FX Hedging Flows Boost EUR/USD? eFXdata
Cross-firm research
EUR/USD Trades 3.16% Below Dec-26 Consensus as 18 Firms Hold 1.20 Median
With spot at 1.1621 and the 18-firm median Dec-26 target at 1.20, EUR/USD sits 3.16% below consensus—a gap that demands explanation.
EUR/USD Trades 3.2% Below Dec-26 Consensus as Targets Cluster Near 1.20
Spot at 1.1612 sits 3.2% below the 18-firm median Dec-26 target of 1.20, exposing a consensus that remains structurally bullish EUR despite the pair's failure to close the gap.
EUR/USD Trades 4% Below Dec-26 Consensus: What the Gap Reveals
EUR/USD spot at 1.1711 sits 4.01% below the eight-firm median Dec-26 target of 1.22, exposing a structural tension between macro conviction and current tape.