EUR/USD Price Forecast: Holds above 1.1700; Iran tensions cap gains as US NFP looms
The EUR/USD pair remains firm above the 1.1700 level amid heightened geopolitical tensions stemming from Iran, creating a risk-off environment that supports USD demand. This dynamic is particularly relevant as traders await the upcoming Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report, which could offer clarity on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy trajectory. Current resistance near 1.1700 is unlikely to be breached until the employment data provides fresh insights into U.S. economic strength.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target stands at 1.1800 (median across 8 firms), with Morgan Stanley at the higher end (1.2000) and BofA at the lower end (1.1700). This is significantly above the current spot price of 1.1500, suggesting an expectation of a recovery from current levels.
How firms align
Goldman Sachs, ING, and Morgan Stanley all align with a target of 1.1800 or higher for March 2026, indicating a bullish outlook in contrast with the current spot. Meanwhile, Bank of America sits at the lower end with a target of 1.1700, which is more bearish compared to the consensus. See /reports/goldman, /reports/ing, and /reports/morganstanley for more details.
What the data shows
Recent revisions from Goldman and ING have increased their targets to 1.1800 for March 2026, further suggesting optimism towards the Euro despite the current geopolitical risks. For additional insights, refer to our research on consensus divergence at /research/eurusd-consensus-gap-may-2026-20260507-2336.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01EUR/USD holds above 1.1700 despite geopolitical tensions and risk-off flows.
- 02Market positioning may hinge on upcoming US NFP data, crucial for determining Fed path.
- 03Key resistance at 1.1700; a break could depend on positive employment data.
- 04Watch for updates on geopolitical developments affecting safe-haven flows.
Market implications
Traders should monitor the 1.1700 resistance level ahead of the U.S. NFP report, which could reshape expectations for the Fed's policy direction. Given the consensus target of 1.1800, a stronger-than-expected payroll outcome may provide the impetus for a breakout.
Risks to this view
A stronger-than-anticipated NFP report may force a reversal in market sentiment, pushing the EUR/USD back below current levels. Additionally, an escalation in tensions surrounding Iran could further bolster USD demand, undermining the Euro.
Sentiment by currency
USD+EUR-JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: +0.35
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
EUR/USD strengthens as mixed US labor data and hopes for a US-Iran deal pressure the Greenback.
Soft US labor print reduces Fed rate-hike conviction; geopolitical risk-off from Iran talks risk-off flows weaken USD safe-haven demand.
EUR/USD: Recovery eyes full retracement – Scotiabank
EUR/USD recovery momentum suggests technicians are positioning for mean reversion toward recent highs, indicating potential USD weakness into resistance.
EUR/USD: Binary path around Gulf deal – ING
EUR/USD: Oil shock, real rates and conflict risks – Commerzbank
Oil shock transmission via real rates and geopolitical premium widens USD carry advantage; EUR structural support erodes as terminal rates diverge.
Cross-firm research
EUR/USD Trades 3.87% Below Consensus: What the Gap Reveals
EUR/USD spot at 1.1727 sits 3.87% below the eight-firm median Dec-26 target of 1.22, exposing a structural divergence that demands explanation.
EUR/USD Consensus at 1.22 While Spot Sits 3.87% Below
Eight sell-side firms hold a median Dec-26 target of 1.22 for EUR/USD while spot trades at 1.1727, a gap that demands explanation.