EUR/USD Price Forecast: Sees fresh leg of downfall below 1.1570
EUR/USD continues to face pressures after a technical breakdown below the key 1.1570 level, suggesting a potential fresh leg of weakness. This development aligns with the broader bearish sentiment towards the euro as the market anticipates continued strength in the USD amid current macroeconomic dynamics. Recent price action reinforces the importance of monitoring immediate support levels to gauge the extent of any acceleration in selling pressure.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target currently sits at 1.1700 (median across 10 firms), with Goldman at the upper bound (1.1800) while Citi stands at the lower end (1.1300). The latest views from firms such as JPMorgan and Deutsche Bank align more closely with the upper end of this range, suggesting some market participants maintain a comparatively optimistic outlook on the euro.
How firms align
JPMorgan's outlook sees the EUR/USD at 1.1800 for March 2026, suggesting they view the recent weakness as a transition rather than a trend reversal. Similarly, Deutsche Bank holds a target of 1.1800 for March 2026, supporting the notion that despite current bearish pressures, several analysts still see rebound potential in the medium term. This contrasts with BofA's more bearish stance at 1.1700 in the same tenor, indicating a divergence in expectations among key market players.
What the data shows
Notably, our recent research highlights that EUR/USD trades approximately 3% below the December 2026 consensus target of 1.2000. The divergence illustrated in our report (/research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path) suggests traders should be on guard for significant market shifts in these expectations.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01Technical breach below 1.1570 indicates increasing EUR/USD bearish momentum.
- 02Key support levels need monitoring to confirm deeper selling pressure.
- 03Watch for EUR resurgence narratives despite current bearish positioning around 1.1500.
Market implications
Traders should closely monitor the 1.1570 level as a critical threshold; a sustained move below this could signal a deeper decline. Additionally, any shift in U.S. economic data releases may impact the USD's strength crucially against the euro's current relative weakness.
Risks to this view
Should upcoming economic data from the Eurozone show unexpected strength or diverge significantly from forecasts, it could prompt a reversal in market sentiment towards the euro. Any shifts in interest rate expectations from the ECB could also invalidate the current bearish view.
Sentiment by currency
USD+EUR-JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: +0.65
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
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Bank desks on this topic
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FX Daily: Iran fall-out coming home to roost in EUR/USD
https://think.ing.com/articles/fx-daily-iran-fall-out-coming-home-to-roost-in-eur-usd/
FX Daily: Iran fall-out coming home to roost in EUR/USD
https://think.ing.com/articles/fx-daily-iran-fall-out-coming-home-to-roost-in-eur-usd/
FX Daily: Iran fall-out coming home to roost in EUR/USD
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