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EUR/USD spot at 1.16746 trades within a rounding error of the 30-firm full EUR/USD bank forecast table median Dec-26 target of 1.17 — a gap of just -0.22% — but that surface calm obscures a dispersion of 0.14 between the most and least constructive desks, one of the wider spreads across G10 pairs this cycle.
Key Numbers
- Live spot: 1.16746
- Cross-firm consensus (Dec-26 median, 30 firms): 1.17
- Dispersion (max − min): 0.14
- Gap, spot vs consensus: -0.22%
- Most bullish: Nordea at 1.24
- Most bearish: Citi at 1.10
How Do Published Bank Targets Compare Right Now?
Q1–Q4 2026 EUR targets across 18 firms, with cross-firm median path and 25–75th-percentile band on terminal targets.
Source: Citi · Société Générale · Morgan Stanley · Mizuho +14 more
18 firms aggregated · as of 2026-05-26 16:30 UTC
| Firm | Dec-2026 target | Stance |
|---|---|---|
| Citi | 1.10 | bearish |
| Bank of America | 1.12 | bullish |
| Goldman Sachs | 1.12 | bullish |
| Scotiabank | 1.12 | neutral |
| J.P. Morgan | 1.13 | bullish |
| ANZ | 1.14 | neutral |
| Société Générale | 1.14 | bullish |
| Deutsche Bank | 1.1668 | bullish |
| ING | 1.17 | neutral |
| MUFG | 1.18 | bullish |
| Rabobank | 1.18 | neutral |
| UOB | 1.18 | neutral |
| UBS | 1.20 | bullish |
| Commerzbank | 1.22 | bullish |
What Macro Drivers Are Splitting the Consensus?
Per-firm Q1→Q4 path with revision arrows from each firm's prior published target. Sorted ascending by terminal target.
Source: Citi · Société Générale · Morgan Stanley · Mizuho +14 more
18 firms aggregated · as of 2026-05-26 16:30 UTC
Three distinct frameworks account for most of the 0.14 dispersion.
Front-end rate spreads — Citi at 1.10. The most bearish desk in the 30-firm panel anchors its call to the persistence of a positive US-EU 2-year swap spread. Citi's rates team argues the Fed's terminal rate remains materially above the ECB's, keeping carry flows dollar-positive through year-end. On that view, EUR/USD has already overshot and the 1.10 target implies a retracement of roughly six cents from current spot.
ECB policy path — Commerzbank at 1.22. CBK sits near the top of the published range and grounds its constructive stance in a faster-than-priced ECB pause. The desk contends that euro-area inflation has decelerated enough for the ECB to hold rates longer than the market currently discounts, compressing the rate differential that has historically weighed on EUR. A stable-to-rising ECB deposit rate, combined with Fed easing, narrows the spread and supports the pair.
Terminal-rate dispersion — ING at 1.17. ING's neutral stance reflects genuine uncertainty about where both central banks land. The desk flags that terminal-rate estimates across the G10 dealer community remain unusually dispersed — a condition that tends to suppress directional conviction and anchor spot near consensus. ING's 1.17 target is, in effect, a forecast that the current regime of low-information-content data persists into December.
The structural divide is straightforward: desks that weight US exceptionalism and carry — JPM at 1.13, GS at 1.12 — cluster well below spot, while those pricing a more aggressive Fed pivot or a resilient euro-area fiscal impulse — UBS at 1.20, CBK at 1.22 — sit well above it. The median at 1.17 is arithmetically convenient but masks a bimodal distribution.
Which Desks Are the Outliers and Why Does It Matter?
Nordea's 1.24 top-of-range target and Citi's 1.10 floor define a 0.14 band — unusually wide for a pair that has historically seen end-year dispersion closer to 0.06–0.08. That width matters for two reasons.
First, options pricing. A consensus this dispersed tends to keep implied volatility bid at longer tenors, since the market cannot confidently fade any single directional view. Second, it complicates hedging decisions for corporates with EUR/USD exposure: the difference between Citi's 1.10 and Nordea's 1.24 is not a rounding error — it is a 12-cent range that spans meaningfully different hedging costs.
BofA at 1.12 and SG at 1.14 are notable because both carry a bullish stance label on EUR/USD yet sit below current spot — a reminder that stance labels reflect the direction of the desk's most recent revision, not necessarily the direction from current levels. DB at 1.1668 is the closest to spot of any named desk, implying the pair is essentially fairly valued on their framework.
Frequently Asked Questions
How far is EUR/USD spot from the consensus target?
Spot at 1.16746 is -0.22% below the 30-firm median Dec-26 target of 1.17, a gap small enough to be within normal daily range.
What is the full range of bank forecasts for EUR/USD by December 2026?
Across the 30 firms in the consensus panel, targets span from 1.10 (Citi) to 1.24 (Nordea), a dispersion of 0.14 — one of the wider G10 spreads currently on record.
What would force the consensus to converge toward spot?
Convergence requires at least one of three catalysts: a Fed pivot that compresses the US-EU front-end spread faster than the bearish desks project; ECB guidance that anchors terminal-rate expectations and removes the upside scenario priced by the bullish outliers; or a sustained period of low-volatility, range-bound spot that causes desks to mark targets toward realized levels. Absent a macro shock, the -0.22% gap is too small to trigger forced revisions — the dispersion within the panel is the more pressing analytical problem.
Is the consensus bias bullish or bearish on EUR/USD?
The implied consensus bias is neutral. The median target of 1.17 sits only marginally above spot, and the distribution of targets is sufficiently symmetric that no clear directional tilt emerges at the panel level.
→ See the full Commerzbank FX outlook for the detailed rate-differential and ECB-path analysis underpinning the 1.22 Dec-26 target.
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