EUR/USD Price Forecast: 1.1655 acts as key barrier for Euro bulls
The EUR/USD pair finds itself in a pivotal moment as it hovers around 1.1500, just below the significant resistance level of 1.1655 highlighted by fxstreet.com. This barrier is vital for Euro bulls, as breaking past it could signal a bullish shift toward the consensus target of 1.1700 by March 2026. Meanwhile, the current spot price reflects a market sentiment that remains neutral, despite positive forecasts from several firms pushing expectations higher. Such dynamics illustrate the ongoing struggle for the Euro to gain substantial ground against the dollar.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target currently stands at 1.1700 (median across 12 firms), with UBS and Morgan Stanley at the upper end (1.2000) and Citi at a more conservative forecast of 1.1300. FXstreet.com's analysis emphasizes the critical resistance level of 1.1655, which traders are closely monitoring in relation to our collective outlook.
How firms align
Aligning with the notion that 1.1655 is a key barrier, JPMorgan and MUFG are positioned to achieve targets of 1.1800 by March 26. However, contrasting views come from Citi, which maintains a more bearish stance with a target of 1.1300, indicating skepticism about the Euro's potential to break higher against the USD.
What the data shows
Recent forecast revisions reflect growing optimism towards the Euro's future, particularly with MUFG and JPMorgan recently upgrading their March targets. This aligns with insights from our research, notably the theme outlined in /research/eurusd-divergence-consensus-gap-may-2026-20260513-1104, highlighting the gap between the current spot and the consensus forecast.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01EUR/USD currently trades at 1.1500, testing 1.1655 resistance.
- 02Expect volatility around 1.1655, crucial for bull momentum.
- 03Citi expectations set a conservative floor at 1.1300 for March.
- 04Watch for firm shifts post-economic data releases.
Market implications
Traders should focus on the 1.1655 resistance level as it could dictate upcoming price movements. Additionally, the March policy meetings may introduce volatility that could impact the consensus target of 1.1700 if the Euro fails to make significant gains.
Risks to this view
Key risks to this bullish case include a resurgence of USD strength, potentially driven by stronger-than-expected U.S. economic data. A decisive move below the 1.1300 level would indicate a loss of upward momentum for the Euro.
Sentiment by currency
USD~EUR~JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: +0.00
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
Euro: Limited downside against US Dollar with ECB hike message – MUFG
ECB's continued hike messaging supports EUR/USD floor around current levels; limited downside signals reduced momentum for USD longs.
Euro: Gains capped against US Dollar by Fed story – ING
Fed rate expectations remain supportive of USD strength, structurally limiting EUR/USD upside despite recent euro resilience.
EUR/USD Price Forecast: 20-day EMA remains key barrier as Iran uncertainty persists
Euro slips as Hormuz firefight revives US Dollar demand
Geopolitical risk in Persian Gulf elevates safe-haven demand, likely to support USD/JPY parity and cap EUR/USD downside until tensions clarify.
Bank desks on this topic
FX Daily: Iran fall-out coming home to roost in EUR/USD
https://think.ing.com/articles/fx-daily-iran-fall-out-coming-home-to-roost-in-eur-usd/
FX Daily: Iran fall-out coming home to roost in EUR/USD
https://think.ing.com/articles/fx-daily-iran-fall-out-coming-home-to-roost-in-eur-usd/
FX Daily: Iran fall-out coming home to roost in EUR/USD
EUR/USD was hit in March on expectations that the stagflationary shock from Iran would resonate more in Europe than the US. The inflationary effects have been plain for all to see, but this week's release of European PMIs warns that the stagnationary effect is just starting to la
Morgan Stanley: How Much Will FX Hedging Flows Boost EUR/USD? - eFXdata
Morgan Stanley: How Much Will FX Hedging Flows Boost EUR/USD? eFXdata
Cross-firm research
EUR/USD Trades 3.16% Below Dec-26 Consensus as 18 Firms Hold 1.20 Median
With spot at 1.1621 and the 18-firm median Dec-26 target at 1.20, EUR/USD sits 3.16% below consensus—a gap that demands explanation.
EUR/USD Trades 3.2% Below Dec-26 Consensus as Targets Cluster Near 1.20
Spot at 1.1612 sits 3.2% below the 18-firm median Dec-26 target of 1.20, exposing a consensus that remains structurally bullish EUR despite the pair's failure to close the gap.
EUR/USD Trades 4% Below Dec-26 Consensus: What the Gap Reveals
EUR/USD spot at 1.1711 sits 4.01% below the eight-firm median Dec-26 target of 1.22, exposing a structural tension between macro conviction and current tape.