Name: Investment Bank FX Research Directory
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05:58 PMConflict keeps midstream compelling, integrateds see a pipeline of cash 04:38 PMIn Focus: Equity & Credit Update on AI CapEx 12:24 AMBarclays warns yen recovery likely temporary despite Tokyo's $35bn intervention 10:33 PMUS Rates - I won’t see you next time 08:06 PMGlobal Commodities: It’s Simple Math 05:22 PMGlobal FX: Yen intervention, re-assessing USD bearish view, central bank rundown 09:05 PMMorgan Stanley delays Fed cut call to 2027 (more info). Middle East risk drives dollar 09:02 PMEM Fixed Income: To every thing there is a season 11:51 AMTiff Macklem: Release of the Monetary Policy Report 09:05 AMChristina Papaconstantinou: Central banks and independence - a test for democracy 05:58 PMConflict keeps midstream compelling, integrateds see a pipeline of cash 04:38 PMIn Focus: Equity & Credit Update on AI CapEx 12:24 AMBarclays warns yen recovery likely temporary despite Tokyo's $35bn intervention 10:33 PMUS Rates - I won’t see you next time 08:06 PMGlobal Commodities: It’s Simple Math 05:22 PMGlobal FX: Yen intervention, re-assessing USD bearish view, central bank rundown 09:05 PMMorgan Stanley delays Fed cut call to 2027 (more info). Middle East risk drives dollar 09:02 PMEM Fixed Income: To every thing there is a season 11:51 AMTiff Macklem: Release of the Monetary Policy Report 09:05 AMChristina Papaconstantinou: Central banks and independence - a test for democracy

MUFG

2026 FX Outlook: Post-Peak USD World

LIVE19 December 2025USD bearish

Overview Forecasts Trades Currencies Scenarios Technicals Volatility EM Strategy Macro Quant

FX Research · Year-End 2026

19 December 2025USD bearish

Derek Halpenny · Lee Hardman

ACCURACY · 2023–2024

33.3%Hit rate

778 bpsAvg error

43.3%Direction

#7 of 8Rank

Sample: 30 forecasts·See methodology·View coverage: 2026 FX Outlook: Post-Peak USD World

ACCURACY · 2023–2024

Performance Snapshot

On Track

Off Track

Forecasts

Active Trades

+21.3%

Total P&L

0.0%

Avg Progress

DXY

100.2

Target: 95

EUR/USD

1.15

Target: 1.24

USD/JPY

157

Target: 146

USD Bias

BEARISH

DXY Forecast Path

Target 95

USD Sensitivity Analysis

US twin deficits

Twin deficit widens to 8%+ of GDP

-3 to 5% on USD TWI over 12 months

Fed easing cycle

Fed cuts 150bp total in 2026

-4 to 5% on DXY

European fiscal expansion

German/EU fiscal stimulus of 2-3% GDP

EUR/USD +4-6%

BoJ normalization

BoJ hikes to 0.50-0.75%

USD/JPY falls 5-8%

Commodity super-cycle

Base metals rally 15-20%

AUD, NOK appreciate 5-8% vs USD

Top Currency Pairs

8 pairs

Pair	Direction	Status	Spot	Live	Dec 26	vs Spot	vs Live
TRY	Sell TRY	--	42.45	--	52	-18.4%	--
HUF	Buy HUF	--	332	--	298	+10.2%	--
PLN	Buy PLN	--	3.67	--	3.32	+9.5%	--
AUD	Buy AUD	--	0.64	--	0.7	+9.4%	--
SEK	Buy SEK	--	9.54	--	8.7	+8.8%	--
NOK	Buy NOK	--	10.25	--	9.4	+8.3%	--
EUR	Buy EUR	--	1.15	--	1.24	+7.8%	--
ZAR	Buy ZAR	--	17.31	--	16	+7.6%	--

Explore Report Sections

Forecasts

Exchange rate targets across G10 & EM

Trades

Active trade ideas with P&L tracking

Currencies

Deep-dive views per currency pair

Scenarios

Macro scenario analysis & stress tests

Technicals

Chart patterns, support & resistance

Volatility

FX volatility surface & carry

EM Strategy

Emerging market FX & rates

Macro Quant

Quantitative signals & models

Macro Trade Themes

Post-Peak USD

Broad USD weakness throughout 2026

The US dollar has peaked and we expect a steady 5% decline on DXY through 2026. Unlike the consensus for a volatile path, we see consistent dollar weakness driven by twin deficit expansion, Fed easing, and global growth convergence. No H2 recovery expected. Express via broad USD shorts against EUR, GBP, and commodity currencies.

European Fiscal Renaissance

Long EUR on German spending

Germany's relaxation of the debt brake and infrastructure investment fund marks a structural shift for European growth. Combined with EU-wide defense spending increases, this creates the strongest European fiscal impulse since reunification. EUR/USD to 1.24 is our top conviction call. European FX broadly benefits including NOK and SEK.

Yen Mean Reversion

Long JPY on BoJ normalization

BoJ normalization to 0.50-0.75% combined with Fed easing creates powerful rate convergence. USD/JPY to decline to 146 by year-end. Japanese institutional investors likely to repatriate as domestic yields rise. Carry unwind risk provides additional downside asymmetry. Steady yen appreciation rather than sharp moves.

Commodity Currency Tailwinds

Long AUD, NOK on commodity recovery

Base metals recovery and oil price stability create tailwinds for commodity-linked currencies. AUD and NOK are our preferred expressions. Both benefit from central banks on hold (RBA, Norges Bank) maintaining high yields. China stimulus provides upside risk for AUD. NOK is the most undervalued G10 currency.

EM Carry Harvest

Funded by low G10 vol

Low G10 vol environment creates optimal conditions for EM carry harvesting. DM-funded EM carry strategies should outperform as central bank activity remains subdued. Prefer ZAR, PLN, and MXN for carry. Use options-based approaches for BRL and TRY given election/political risks. Carry-to-vol ratios remain attractive.

Compare with Other Firms

J.P. Morgan Goldman Sachs Morgan Stanley Bank of America Barclays Deutsche Bank ING

FX BANK FORECAST · COVERAGE

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