EUR/USD Price Forecast: Near-term tone remains bearish as 20-day EMA slopes downwards
The EUR/USD pair continues to show bearish momentum, with the 20-day EMA indicating a downward slope, reinforcing the near-term outlook. As the pair sits at 1.1500, market sentiment leans towards the USD being bullish against the EUR, suggesting that traders may anticipate further declines. This bearish tone aligns with the general consensus among analysts, pointing towards a possible correction before any meaningful recovery in the euro pairs.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus target for EUR/USD currently stands at 1.1700 for March 2026, with predictions ranging from a low of 1.1300 by Citi to a high of 1.2000 by UBS. This puts the current spot significantly below expectations, reflecting the ongoing bearish sentiment in the market.
How firms align
Among notable positions, firms like Goldman and JP Morgan hold relatively optimistic targets of 1.1800 and 1.1800 respectively for March 2026, underscoring a slight divergence from the current market dynamics. Conversely, Citi’s bearish target of 1.1300 aligns more closely with the recent bearish outlook highlighted in the forecast by FXStreet, suggesting a consensus that is cautious about euro strength. For a deeper understanding, see our internal reports on Goldman and Citi.
What the data shows
Recent revisions by firms indicate a downward adjustment in expectations, particularly with banks like ING and Commerzbank targeting 1.1900. This aligns with our previous research indicating that the EUR/USD is trading 4% below the December 2026 consensus, showing that downward pressure may persist. For more insights, refer to /research/eurusd-consensus-divergence-may-2026.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01Bearish momentum for EUR/USD at 1.1500, as indicated by declining 20-day EMA.
- 02Summer trading may pivot on US economic data against Eurozone stability.
- 03Key support stands at 1.1400; breaking below could trigger further declines.
Market implications
Next, traders should watch for breaks below 1.1400, which could lead to increased selling pressure. The calendar event to note is the upcoming ECB meeting, which may influence positioning ahead of the March 2026 targets.
Risks to this view
A significant rise in Eurozone data or unexpected dovish tones from the Federal Reserve could invalidate the current bearish thesis. A strong retracement above 1.1700 could shift sentiment significantly.
Sentiment by currency
USD+EUR-JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: +0.60
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
Euro: Limited downside against US Dollar with ECB hike message – MUFG
ECB's continued hike messaging supports EUR/USD floor around current levels; limited downside signals reduced momentum for USD longs.
Euro: Gains capped against US Dollar by Fed story – ING
Fed rate expectations remain supportive of USD strength, structurally limiting EUR/USD upside despite recent euro resilience.
EUR/USD Price Forecast: 20-day EMA remains key barrier as Iran uncertainty persists
Euro slips as Hormuz firefight revives US Dollar demand
Geopolitical risk in Persian Gulf elevates safe-haven demand, likely to support USD/JPY parity and cap EUR/USD downside until tensions clarify.
Bank desks on this topic
FX Daily: Iran fall-out coming home to roost in EUR/USD
https://think.ing.com/articles/fx-daily-iran-fall-out-coming-home-to-roost-in-eur-usd/
FX Daily: Iran fall-out coming home to roost in EUR/USD
https://think.ing.com/articles/fx-daily-iran-fall-out-coming-home-to-roost-in-eur-usd/
FX Daily: Iran fall-out coming home to roost in EUR/USD
EUR/USD was hit in March on expectations that the stagflationary shock from Iran would resonate more in Europe than the US. The inflationary effects have been plain for all to see, but this week's release of European PMIs warns that the stagnationary effect is just starting to la
Morgan Stanley: How Much Will FX Hedging Flows Boost EUR/USD? - eFXdata
Morgan Stanley: How Much Will FX Hedging Flows Boost EUR/USD? eFXdata
Cross-firm research
EUR/USD Trades 3.16% Below Dec-26 Consensus as 18 Firms Hold 1.20 Median
With spot at 1.1621 and the 18-firm median Dec-26 target at 1.20, EUR/USD sits 3.16% below consensus—a gap that demands explanation.
EUR/USD Trades 3.2% Below Dec-26 Consensus as Targets Cluster Near 1.20
Spot at 1.1612 sits 3.2% below the 18-firm median Dec-26 target of 1.20, exposing a consensus that remains structurally bullish EUR despite the pair's failure to close the gap.
EUR/USD Trades 4% Below Dec-26 Consensus: What the Gap Reveals
EUR/USD spot at 1.1711 sits 4.01% below the eight-firm median Dec-26 target of 1.22, exposing a structural tension between macro conviction and current tape.