EUR/USD Price Forecast: Trades above mid-1.1700s; bearish bias persists below 100-hour SMA
EUR/USD has edged above the mid-1.1700s but remains under pressure from the 100-hour SMA resistance, which aligns with a broader bearish bias. The move builds on our earlier divergence analysis, where spot sits 3.87% below the 2026 consensus at 1.22. Intraday price action reflects a tug-of-war between downside momentum and near-term support, but the break below key moving averages signals sellers retain control. This matters because the 1.1700 area now acts as resistance, and a sustained hold below the 100-hour SMA could accelerate declines toward the 1.1500 spot level.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target stands at 1.18 (median across 8 firms) for March 2026, with Morgan Stanley at the upper bound (1.20) and BofA and Barclays at the lower (1.17). The current spot at 1.1500 is well below the consensus range, reinforcing the bearish narrative from the headline. Fxstreet.com's focus on the 100-hour SMA breakdown aligns with the lower third of our forecast spectrum, but the mid-1.1700s resistance zone sits closer to BofA and Barclays' near-term calls.
How firms align
Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank target 1.18 in March 2026, which is roughly 200 pips above current spot, suggesting they see limited downside from here. In contrast, BofA and Barclays at 1.17 imply a more cautious view that aligns closely with the headline's bearish bias and the 100-hour SMA resistance. Morgan Stanley's 1.20 target is the most bullish, diverging from the short-term technical pressure highlighted by fxstreet.
What the data shows
Our earlier research (slug: eurusd-consensus-divergence) highlighted that the consensus median for December 2026 is 1.22, while spot sits 3.87% below that level — a gap that typically reverts, but near-term technicals argue for further downside first. The headline's focus on the 100-hour SMA as key resistance reinforces that any recovery may be capped until that moving average is broken decisively.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01EUR/USD holds above mid-1.1700s but bearish bias persists below 100-hour SMA resistance.
- 02Breakdown below 1.1700 support could open path toward 1.1500 spot level.
- 03Consensus March 2026 median at 1.18, with BofA/Barclays (1.17) aligned with bearish view.
- 04Morgan Stanley's 1.20 target underscores firm-level divergence on near-term outlook.
Market implications
Watch for a test of the 1.1700 resistance as sellers defend the 100-hour SMA. If price fails to reclaim that level, momentum could push toward the 1.1500 handle. The next catalyst is the Fed meeting minutes, which may reinforce USD bullishness if hawkish — further pressuring EUR/USD below our consensus median of 1.18.
Risks to this view
The bearish view would be invalidated if EUR/USD breaks above the 100-hour SMA and holds above 1.1750, signaling a bullish reversal. A dovish surprise from the ECB or weaker US data could trigger short covering, driving a rally toward our consensus 1.18 target. Conversely, a break below 1.1700 would confirm the bearish bias.
Sentiment by currency
USD+EUR-JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: +0.35
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
EUR/USD strengthens as mixed US labor data and hopes for a US-Iran deal pressure the Greenback.
Soft US labor print reduces Fed rate-hike conviction; geopolitical risk-off from Iran talks risk-off flows weaken USD safe-haven demand.
EUR/USD: Recovery eyes full retracement – Scotiabank
EUR/USD recovery momentum suggests technicians are positioning for mean reversion toward recent highs, indicating potential USD weakness into resistance.
EUR/USD: Binary path around Gulf deal – ING
EUR/USD: Oil shock, real rates and conflict risks – Commerzbank
Oil shock transmission via real rates and geopolitical premium widens USD carry advantage; EUR structural support erodes as terminal rates diverge.
Cross-firm research
EUR/USD Trades 3.87% Below Consensus: What the Gap Reveals
EUR/USD spot at 1.1727 sits 3.87% below the eight-firm median Dec-26 target of 1.22, exposing a structural divergence that demands explanation.
EUR/USD Consensus at 1.22 While Spot Sits 3.87% Below
Eight sell-side firms hold a median Dec-26 target of 1.22 for EUR/USD while spot trades at 1.1727, a gap that demands explanation.