Euro: Retest of 1.1600 against US Dollar seen likely – ING
The Euro is facing potential challenges as ING highlights a likely retest of the 1.1600 level against the US Dollar, a move that suggests ongoing technical risks for the EUR/USD pair. With the currency currently trading at 1.1500, this downward pressure indicates a potential continuation of USD strength in the near term. A failure to hold above critical levels could solidify a bearish sentiment for the Euro, impacting broader market expectations.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target sits at 1.1700 (median across firms), with JPMorgan and Goldman at the upper bound (1.1800) and Citi at the lower (1.1300). ING's outlook aligns closely with the market's expectations reflecting the broader sentiment of potential weakness in the Euro.
How firms align
ING's recent target of 1.1900 for March 2026 suggests that they share a cautious but somewhat optimistic view on the Euro, contrasting with the bearish leanings of firms like Citi, which projects 1.1300 for the same period. Meanwhile, JPMorgan and Goldman also align with more bullish targets that exceed current market levels, creating a divergence in sentiment compared to the prevailing view from ING.
What the data shows
Recent forecast revisions show a range of expectations from various firms, with JPMorgan and Goldman updating their targets to 1.1800 for March 2026. For more insights on the Euro's underperformance, refer to our research on the divergence in EUR/USD expectations (/research/eurusd-divergence-consensus-gap-may-2026-20260513-1605).
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01EUR/USD retesting 1.1600 indicates potential for further USD strength.
- 02Traders should watch for USD bullish signals around key levels.
- 03A breach below 1.1500 could trigger acceleration towards 1.1400.
- 04Keep an eye on CPI data and Fed remarks that could sway sentiment.
Market implications
Looking ahead, key resistance levels to monitor include 1.1600 and support at 1.1400. Upcoming economic data releases, particularly US inflation figures, will be crucial for directional bias. The consensus sits at 1.1700, suggesting that expectations remain relatively optimistic despite the current technical outlook.
Risks to this view
A stronger-than-expected economic performance from the Eurozone or dovish statements from the Fed could invalidate bearish sentiments for the Euro. Additionally, if EUR/USD manages to hold above 1.1600, it could spark renewed upside expectations.
Sentiment by currency
USD+EUR-JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: +0.65
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
Euro: Limited downside against US Dollar with ECB hike message – MUFG
ECB's continued hike messaging supports EUR/USD floor around current levels; limited downside signals reduced momentum for USD longs.
Euro: Gains capped against US Dollar by Fed story – ING
Fed rate expectations remain supportive of USD strength, structurally limiting EUR/USD upside despite recent euro resilience.
EUR/USD Price Forecast: 20-day EMA remains key barrier as Iran uncertainty persists
Euro slips as Hormuz firefight revives US Dollar demand
Geopolitical risk in Persian Gulf elevates safe-haven demand, likely to support USD/JPY parity and cap EUR/USD downside until tensions clarify.
Bank desks on this topic
FX Daily: Iran fall-out coming home to roost in EUR/USD
https://think.ing.com/articles/fx-daily-iran-fall-out-coming-home-to-roost-in-eur-usd/
FX Daily: Iran fall-out coming home to roost in EUR/USD
https://think.ing.com/articles/fx-daily-iran-fall-out-coming-home-to-roost-in-eur-usd/
FX Daily: Iran fall-out coming home to roost in EUR/USD
EUR/USD was hit in March on expectations that the stagflationary shock from Iran would resonate more in Europe than the US. The inflationary effects have been plain for all to see, but this week's release of European PMIs warns that the stagnationary effect is just starting to la
Morgan Stanley: How Much Will FX Hedging Flows Boost EUR/USD? - eFXdata
Morgan Stanley: How Much Will FX Hedging Flows Boost EUR/USD? eFXdata
Cross-firm research
EUR/USD Trades 3.16% Below Dec-26 Consensus as 18 Firms Hold 1.20 Median
With spot at 1.1621 and the 18-firm median Dec-26 target at 1.20, EUR/USD sits 3.16% below consensus—a gap that demands explanation.
EUR/USD Trades 3.2% Below Dec-26 Consensus as Targets Cluster Near 1.20
Spot at 1.1612 sits 3.2% below the 18-firm median Dec-26 target of 1.20, exposing a consensus that remains structurally bullish EUR despite the pair's failure to close the gap.
EUR/USD Trades 4% Below Dec-26 Consensus: What the Gap Reveals
EUR/USD spot at 1.1711 sits 4.01% below the eight-firm median Dec-26 target of 1.22, exposing a structural tension between macro conviction and current tape.