Euro: Technical break points to 1.160 test versus US Dollar – ING
The EUR/USD pair is signaling a potential bullish outlook as technical indicators suggest a breakout could lead to a retest of the 1.1600 level against the US Dollar, as highlighted by ING. This is significant as momentum within the euro could influence broader market positioning amid a generally bearish sentiment towards the USD. If the breakout above key resistance levels materializes, traders may see this as a signal to increase their euro exposure, reinforcing bullish strategies.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target sits at 1.1750 (median across firms), with Morgan Stanley at the upper bound (1.2000) and Citi at the lower (1.1300). [PUBLISHER]'s view aligns more closely with the upper third — JPMorgan and ING share targets within this bullish context for March 2026, indicating a shared optimistic sentiment towards the euro's performance.
How firms align
ING projects a target of 1.1900 for March 2026 with a reinforcing view from JPMorgan at 1.1800 for the same horizon. Both firms support the notion of upward momentum in EUR/USD, in contrast to BofA's more conservative stance at 1.1700, indicating a divergence in forecasts that FX traders should monitor closely over the coming weeks.
What the data shows
Recent revisions have seen firms like Goldman and ING adjusting their March targets upwards to 1.1800 and 1.1900 respectively. This aligns with the broader bullish sentiment we noted in our recent publications, especially in /research/eurusd-divergence-consensus-gap-may-2026-20260513-1104, which discusses how the euro's current trading level is significantly below consensus forecasts.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01Technical break suggests a bullish shift, testing 1.1600 in EUR/USD.
- 02FX traders should be vigilant for a confirmed breakout above resistance levels.
- 03Support from ING and JPMorgan implies potential upside momentum.
- 04Monitor sentiment shifts around key economic data releases for volatility.
Market implications
Next, watch for EUR/USD to clear the 1.1600 resistance level for confirmation of the bullish trend. Market positioning could shift with any positive economic data from the Eurozone or indication of further USD weakness. Our consensus target at 1.1750 will be influential in guiding trader sentiment.
Risks to this view
A reversal in this outlook could materialize if significant macroeconomic data from the US supports the Dollar, particularly if inflation data drives unexpected monetary policy cues. Any shift towards a more hawkish stance from the Fed could erode bullish sentiment in the euro.
Sentiment by currency
USD-EUR+JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: -0.35
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
Euro: Limited downside against US Dollar with ECB hike message – MUFG
ECB's continued hike messaging supports EUR/USD floor around current levels; limited downside signals reduced momentum for USD longs.
Euro: Gains capped against US Dollar by Fed story – ING
Fed rate expectations remain supportive of USD strength, structurally limiting EUR/USD upside despite recent euro resilience.
EUR/USD Price Forecast: 20-day EMA remains key barrier as Iran uncertainty persists
Euro slips as Hormuz firefight revives US Dollar demand
Geopolitical risk in Persian Gulf elevates safe-haven demand, likely to support USD/JPY parity and cap EUR/USD downside until tensions clarify.
Bank desks on this topic
FX Daily: Iran fall-out coming home to roost in EUR/USD
https://think.ing.com/articles/fx-daily-iran-fall-out-coming-home-to-roost-in-eur-usd/
FX Daily: Iran fall-out coming home to roost in EUR/USD
https://think.ing.com/articles/fx-daily-iran-fall-out-coming-home-to-roost-in-eur-usd/
FX Daily: Iran fall-out coming home to roost in EUR/USD
EUR/USD was hit in March on expectations that the stagflationary shock from Iran would resonate more in Europe than the US. The inflationary effects have been plain for all to see, but this week's release of European PMIs warns that the stagnationary effect is just starting to la
Morgan Stanley: How Much Will FX Hedging Flows Boost EUR/USD? - eFXdata
Morgan Stanley: How Much Will FX Hedging Flows Boost EUR/USD? eFXdata
Cross-firm research
EUR/USD Trades 3.16% Below Dec-26 Consensus as 18 Firms Hold 1.20 Median
With spot at 1.1621 and the 18-firm median Dec-26 target at 1.20, EUR/USD sits 3.16% below consensus—a gap that demands explanation.
EUR/USD Trades 3.2% Below Dec-26 Consensus as Targets Cluster Near 1.20
Spot at 1.1612 sits 3.2% below the 18-firm median Dec-26 target of 1.20, exposing a consensus that remains structurally bullish EUR despite the pair's failure to close the gap.
EUR/USD Trades 4% Below Dec-26 Consensus: What the Gap Reveals
EUR/USD spot at 1.1711 sits 4.01% below the eight-firm median Dec-26 target of 1.22, exposing a structural tension between macro conviction and current tape.