EUR/USD Price Forecast: Sees more downside towards 1.1500 following Double Top breakdown
The recent breakdown of the double top pattern for EUR/USD has prompted further bearish sentiment, with technical analysis suggesting a move towards 1.1500 as the next support level. This aligns with rising bullish momentum for the USD, which appears poised to capitalize on any declines in the euro. The importance of this level cannot be overstated, as it could signal a deeper erosion in market confidence for the EUR against the USD.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target currently stands at 1.1750 (median across 11 firms), with the highest forecast from UBS at 1.2000 and the lowest from Citi at 1.1300. The current spot level at 1.1500 reflects a significant divergence from this consensus, indicating possible market mispricing.
How firms align
JPMorgan and Goldman align moderately with this bearish outlook, at March targets of 1.1800 and 1.1800 respectively, hinting at a potential recovery. However, Citi's more cautious projection of 1.1300 indicates a less optimistic perspective on the EUR’s near-term performance.
What the data shows
Recent revisions from INg have highlighted a shift in expectations, raising their March forecast to 1.1900 and December to 1.2200. This contrasts with historical consensus data revealing EUR/USD trading approximately 4% below December's consensus targets as noted in our /research/eurusd-consensus-divergence-may-2026-20260513-1605 report.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01Next major support for EUR/USD identified at 1.1500 following technical breakdown.
- 02Traders should monitor for further bearish momentum in the USD.
- 03Any close below 1.1500 could trigger deeper downside risks.
- 04Revising targets may indicate shifting sentiment among analysts.
Market implications
As we approach the crucial 1.1500 support level, it will be pivotal to observe how market positioning evolves. Upcoming economic data releases and central bank announcements could further influence EUR/USD movements, especially if they deviate from current market expectations. Watch for potential consolidation or breaks around this level in light of our consensus target at 1.1750.
Risks to this view
A surprising economic data release from the Eurozone or a shift in the Fed's monetary policy stance could invalidate this bearish outlook. Should EUR/USD rebound significantly above 1.1700, it would challenge the current sentiment and could prompt a reevaluation of bearish positions.
Sentiment by currency
USD+EUR-JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: +0.65
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
Euro: Limited downside against US Dollar with ECB hike message – MUFG
ECB's continued hike messaging supports EUR/USD floor around current levels; limited downside signals reduced momentum for USD longs.
Euro: Gains capped against US Dollar by Fed story – ING
Fed rate expectations remain supportive of USD strength, structurally limiting EUR/USD upside despite recent euro resilience.
EUR/USD Price Forecast: 20-day EMA remains key barrier as Iran uncertainty persists
Euro slips as Hormuz firefight revives US Dollar demand
Geopolitical risk in Persian Gulf elevates safe-haven demand, likely to support USD/JPY parity and cap EUR/USD downside until tensions clarify.
Bank desks on this topic
FX Daily: Iran fall-out coming home to roost in EUR/USD
https://think.ing.com/articles/fx-daily-iran-fall-out-coming-home-to-roost-in-eur-usd/
FX Daily: Iran fall-out coming home to roost in EUR/USD
https://think.ing.com/articles/fx-daily-iran-fall-out-coming-home-to-roost-in-eur-usd/
FX Daily: Iran fall-out coming home to roost in EUR/USD
EUR/USD was hit in March on expectations that the stagflationary shock from Iran would resonate more in Europe than the US. The inflationary effects have been plain for all to see, but this week's release of European PMIs warns that the stagnationary effect is just starting to la
Morgan Stanley: How Much Will FX Hedging Flows Boost EUR/USD? - eFXdata
Morgan Stanley: How Much Will FX Hedging Flows Boost EUR/USD? eFXdata
Cross-firm research
EUR/USD Trades 3.16% Below Dec-26 Consensus as 18 Firms Hold 1.20 Median
With spot at 1.1621 and the 18-firm median Dec-26 target at 1.20, EUR/USD sits 3.16% below consensus—a gap that demands explanation.
EUR/USD Trades 3.2% Below Dec-26 Consensus as Targets Cluster Near 1.20
Spot at 1.1612 sits 3.2% below the 18-firm median Dec-26 target of 1.20, exposing a consensus that remains structurally bullish EUR despite the pair's failure to close the gap.
EUR/USD Trades 4% Below Dec-26 Consensus: What the Gap Reveals
EUR/USD spot at 1.1711 sits 4.01% below the eight-firm median Dec-26 target of 1.22, exposing a structural tension between macro conviction and current tape.