EUR/USD Price Forecast: 20-day EMA caps recovery, flash German HICP data awaited
The EUR/USD is encountering technical resistance at the 20-day EMA, limiting recovery potential ahead of the flash German HICP data release. With bearish sentiment for the euro against the dollar, the market is positioning for potential downside if inflation metrics undercut expectations. The outcome of the HICP print could reinforce or challenge the ECB's rate approach and shape future market dynamics.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target sits at 1.1700 (median across 10 firms), with UBS at the upper bound (1.2000) and Citi at the lower (1.1300). The commentary reflects a mixed sentiment, suggesting market caution around upcoming inflation data which may dictate further moves.
How firms align
Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank both maintain optimistic targets for March 2026 at 1.1800 and 1.1800 respectively, aligning closely with the potential for a rebound should German inflation data impress. Conversely, Citi’s bearish stance at 1.1300 highlights a divergence, indicating potential risks should the data disappoint against ECB rate expectations.
What the data shows
Recent forecasts have shown a slight upward revision, particularly from ING, which now anticipates 1.1900 for March 2026, suggesting a cautious optimism among some firms despite current bearish sentiment. For more insights, see our related research at /research/eurusd-divergence-consensus-vs-spot-may-2026.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 0120-day EMA resistance at 1.1500 caps short-term recovery.
- 02Watch German HICP data for potential EUR reaction.
- 03Downside risk increases if inflation data misses forecasts.
- 04Citi's March target at 1.1300 reflects a bearish outlook.
Market implications
Ahead, focus shifts to the upcoming German HICP data, with a critical level around 1.1500. A weak print could shift market dynamics and reinforce bearish sentiment toward the euro, particularly against the current consensus target of 1.1700 for March 2026.
Risks to this view
A strong HICP reading could invalidate the current bearish outlook, shifting sentiment back towards a more favorable view of the euro. Additionally, any unexpected ECB policy signals could alter the trajectory for the EUR/USD significantly.
Sentiment by currency
USD+EUR-JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: +0.35
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
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Bank desks on this topic
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FX Daily: Iran fall-out coming home to roost in EUR/USD
https://think.ing.com/articles/fx-daily-iran-fall-out-coming-home-to-roost-in-eur-usd/
FX Daily: Iran fall-out coming home to roost in EUR/USD
https://think.ing.com/articles/fx-daily-iran-fall-out-coming-home-to-roost-in-eur-usd/
FX Daily: Iran fall-out coming home to roost in EUR/USD
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Cross-firm research
EUR/USD Trades 3.16% Below Dec-26 Consensus as 18 Firms Hold 1.20 Median
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EUR/USD Trades 3.2% Below Dec-26 Consensus as Targets Cluster Near 1.20
Spot at 1.1612 sits 3.2% below the 18-firm median Dec-26 target of 1.20, exposing a consensus that remains structurally bullish EUR despite the pair's failure to close the gap.
EUR/USD Trades 4% Below Dec-26 Consensus: What the Gap Reveals
EUR/USD spot at 1.1711 sits 4.01% below the eight-firm median Dec-26 target of 1.22, exposing a structural tension between macro conviction and current tape.