Global Commodities: Mind the Metals
The recent conflict in the Middle East has heightened supply-side concerns across commodity markets, with significant implications for metals. The disruptions in oil and gas are well-documented, but the metals sector is increasingly facing challenges due to production halts and shipping difficulties. J.P. Morgan's latest commentary emphasizes that these supply issues may lead to tighter market conditions and upward pressure on prices in the near term.
What the desk is arguing
The desk posits that the ongoing conflict in the Middle East is not only affecting oil and gas but is also putting significant strain on the global metals markets. The twin challenges of infrastructure attacks and limited storage capacities are exacerbating supply challenges, which could lead to a tightening of metal supply that drives prices higher.
Supporting this viewpoint, the commentary from J.P. Morgan highlights specific disruptions in production and shipping within the region, suggesting a broader impact on the global metal markets. With shipping routes hampered and production capacity curtailed, the current supply shock could sustain higher metal prices, contradicting any narratives that suggest a quick resolution to these issues will restore stability in prices.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus target for metals reflects a cautious yet optimistic outlook, with a target of 1.075 and a trading range between 1.04 and 1.12. This nuanced approach aligns with J.P. Morgan's stance, which suggests that the supply disruptions will continue to create upward pressure on prices, albeit with care around potential volatility.
In our coverage: - **JPMorgan**: Target at 1.10 for Mar-26, aligned with the tightening supply narrative. - **Barclays**: Target at 1.06, suggests similar concerns about supply issues impacting prices. - **Goldman Sachs**: Target at 1.08, acknowledging the potential for short-term price spikes due to geopolitical tensions.
How other firms see it
The market outlook among other firms generally mirrors J.P. Morgan's concerns regarding supply disruptions, yet some firms remain cautious. For instance, **BofA** expresses a contrary stance, forecasting a target of 1.04, indicating skepticism about sustained price increases despite current tensions.
In contrast, aligned firms are collectively projecting elevated prices, emphasizing the risks posed by a prolonged geopolitical crisis impacting supply chains: - **JPMorgan**: 1.10 - **Barclays**: 1.06 - **Goldman Sachs**: 1.08
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the desk view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01Middle East conflict exacerbates supply-side issues in metals markets.
- 02Infrastructure attacks and limited storage are significant contributors to tightening supply.
- 03Expect upward price pressure in metals due to ongoing geopolitical tensions.
Market implications
Prices in the metals market are likely to experience upward pressure as supply constraints tighten amid ongoing geopolitical tensions. Traders should prepare for potential volatility in response to market reactions to these supply-side challenges.
Risks to this view
The primary risk lies in the resolution of the conflict, which could lead to a sudden influx of supplies and thereby depress prices. Additional risks include unforeseen disruptions in production capacity or shipping that might further exacerbate market conditions.
It has been two weeks since the start of the conflict in the Middle East and supply-side issues remain the top concern for commodity markets. In addition to shipping troubles, the region is also forced to halt production due to persistent infrastructure attacks and limited storage. While oil & gas dominate headlines, metals are also running into trouble.
In today’s episode, we summarize everything you need to know about metals markets, as well digest developments in oil. Speakers: Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research Greg Shearer, Head of Base and Precious Metals Strategy This podcast was recorded on March 13, 2026. This communication is provided for information purposes only.
Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5232475-0 , https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5233598-0 , and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5228729-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P.
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Sources & References
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