FX BANK FORECAST · COVERAGE
Aggregated year-end forecasts, scenario shifts, and curated analyst notes from 37 institutional desks. No promotion.
Goldman Sachs forecasts significant upside for USD/JPY, suggesting a target above 160 due to heightened intervention risks stemming from Japan's fiscal policies. This view challenges the current consensus, which sees more moderate appreciation for the pair over the next year.
Goldman Sachs has adopted a bullish stance on USD/JPY, anticipating that the currency pair could push beyond the 160 mark. This projection is bolstered by Japan's fiscal strategies, which analysts believe may prompt increased intervention activities from the Bank of Japan, adding upward pressure on the yen.
The current spot price of USD/JPY stands at 157, suggesting that Goldman’s bullish sentiment contrasts sharply with consensus estimates. With differing views on Japan's fiscal trajectory and intervention likelihood, it appears the desk is disregarding the more tempered perspectives of many market participants who are forecasting less dramatic moves.
Our current consensus target for USD/JPY is 154.5000 for March 2026, which is significantly lower than Goldman Sachs's aggressive target of above 160. The range across firms shows a wide divergence, with some expecting the pair to settle as low as 147.5 by December 2026.
Notably, key firms are targeting various levels as well. Specific targets include:
Many firms have adopted a more conservative approach compared to Goldman Sachs's bullish outlook. For example, MorganStanley holds a Dec-26 target of just 140.0000, reflecting skepticism around the intervention dynamics that might push USD/JPY significantly higher.
A few more firms with more cautious views include:
These targets illustrate a consensus that leans towards instability and moderate depreciation, contrasting sharply with the aggressive stance suggested by Goldman Sachs.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the desk view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
Market implications
If Goldman Sachs's projections hold, it may induce a shift in market positioning, particularly among traders who typically respond to intervention signals from the Bank of Japan.
Risks to this view
Key risks to this bullish forecast include potential policy adjustments from the Bank of Japan which could mitigate the expected intervention risk and thereby dampen upside in USD/JPY.
| Firm | Stance | YE 2026 |
|---|---|---|
Deutsche Bank | Bearish | 159.00 |
BNP Paribas | Bullish | 148.00 |
UBS | Bearish | 160.00 |
All 21 desk targets for USD/JPY
How we cover this story
USD/JPY trades 3.55% above the 23-firm median Dec-26 target of 152.0, with a 25.5-point dispersion range signalling deep disagreement on the BoJ-Fed spread path.
USD/JPY trades at 157.07, roughly 3.3% above the 23-firm median Dec-26 target of 152.0, with a 25.5-point dispersion signalling deep disagreement on the BoJ rate path.
USD/JPY trades at 156.89, 3.22% above the 23-firm Dec-26 median of 152.0, with a 25.5-point dispersion signalling deep disagreement on the BoJ-Fed spread path.
21 investment banks see USD/JPY at 154.34 by Dec 2026
View the live USD/JPY forecastJPM |
Rabo |
Mizuho |
StanChart |