UBS Pound To Dollar Forecast: Buy Any GBP/USD Dips Below 1.33 - Exchange Rates Org UK

What the desk is arguing

The desk supports buying GBP/USD on dips below 1.33, echoing UBS's recommendation. Given the current spot rate at 1.3100, this strategy is predicated on an expected recovery of the pound driven by anticipated monetary policy shifts in the UK versus the US.

Diverse forecasts from multiple banks support a bullish longer-term outlook, particularly around the December 2026 target where several firms are projecting values of 1.40 and above. The implicit rejection in this analysis is that GBP/USD may not maintain its current levels or improve due to weakening economic indicators that could stem from domestic challenges.

Where it sits in our coverage

The median consensus target for GBP/USD is 1.3500 in March 2026, with a range between 1.3300 and 1.3800. This perspective aligns with UBS's recommendation, as buying at or below 1.33 reflects a value acquisition strategy, anticipating upward movement towards the consensus target.

Specific firms such as - JPMorgan: 1.3600 (Dec26) - Barclays: 1.4100 (Dec26) - Deutsche Bank: 1.4200 (Dec26) are forecasting even more substantial appreciation in GBP/USD over the longer horizon, reinforcing the bullish sentiment for the pair.

How other firms see it

A mix of firms is contributing to this outlook. For example, **Goldman** and **Mitsubishi UFJ** share similar perspectives on maintaining a bullish view, albeit with cautious optimism on short-term fluctuations, particularly near support levels.

Conversely, firms like **Bank of America** offer a more tempered outlook, projecting a March 2026 target of 1.3400, indicating a more conservative approach amidst current economic conditions.