Research
Research
This page is part of FX Bank Forecast — an aggregator that normalises bank research PDFs into a searchable forecast and commentary database. Explore the top desks below or jump straight to the consolidated /forecasts and /reports indexes.
We refresh bank research every 15 minutes through our pdf-intake worker. New trade ideas, currency views, and quarterly forecasts surface automatically across the relevant currency, pair, and firm pages.
Top bank desks we track
INR supported by RBI reserve accumulation slowing and improving portfolio flows. India's growth premium vs EM peers provides fundamental support, though low beta limits upside.
INR steady with RBI support. Low beta limits upside but provides defensive positioning. Targeting 86.50.
BNP Paribas forecasts EUR/USD at 1.21 by Q4 2026 (5.2% higher vs current 1.15). Consistent with the report's broader thesis: "Gradual USD depreciation in an Expansion regime; EUR and high-yield EM lead, Asia FX lags". Bullish stance on EUR
Citi forecasts USD/MXN at 19.2 by Q4 2026 (4.3% lower vs current 18.4). Consistent with the report's broader thesis: "Out-of-consensus bullish USD; cyclical re-acceleration drives a stronger dollar through H1, fading into year-end". Bearish
Commerzbank forecasts AUD/USD at 0.71 by Q4 2026 (7.6% higher vs current 0.66). Consistent with the report's broader thesis: "USD under pressure on excessive Fed cuts and Fed independence concerns; EUR overvalued but USD overvaluation great
INR supported by improving portfolio flows and RBI policy shift. India growth premium provides fundamental support. Targeting 85.00.
Bullish MXN on carry, nearshoring flows, and USMCA resolution expectations. Positioning is clean after 2025 washout. Banxico's measured easing pace preserves carry advantage. MXN 13% YTD gain not overextended vs EM peers.
Latest bank commentary
The Commodities Feed: Dwindling oil inventory cushion leaves market increasingly vulnerable
ing· ing-think· Jun 4, 2026EUROPE: Oil prices remain tightly bound to events in the Middle East. Without a normalisation of regional oil flows, the market is increasingly exposed to sharp upward swings as inventories continue to thin
PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 6.8203 (vs. estimate at 6.7770)
· investinglive-cb· Jun 4, 2026The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate. More here. Zero 7-day reverse repos in open market operates today. Second day in a row. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.
PBOC is expected to set the USD/CNY reference rate at 6.7770 – Reuters estimate
· investinglive-cb· Jun 4, 2026The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under whic
What Should Japan Do?
· robin-brooks-substack· Jun 3, 2026An imagined conversation on Japan with my friends Brad Setser and Joe Gagnon
ICYMI - Fed dissenter Logan raises alarm on inflation ahead of Warsh's first meeting
· investinglive-cb· Jun 3, 2026Dallas Fed's Logan says monetary policy is not restraining the economy and warns higher rates may be needed later this year to return inflation to the 2% target. Summary: Logan says monetary policy is not restraining the economy, with financial conditions accommodative and corpor
Rates Spark: Spread exposures
ing· gmail-imap· Jun 3, 2026https://think.ing.com/articles/rates-spark-spread-exposures/
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Aggregated year-end forecasts, scenario shifts, and curated analyst notes from eight institutional desks. No promotion.