Research
Research
This page is part of FX Bank Forecast — an aggregator that normalises bank research PDFs into a searchable forecast and commentary database. Explore the top desks below or jump straight to the consolidated /forecasts and /reports indexes.
We refresh bank research every 15 minutes through our pdf-intake worker. New trade ideas, currency views, and quarterly forecasts surface automatically across the relevant currency, pair, and firm pages.
Top bank desks we track
INR supported by RBI reserve accumulation slowing and improving portfolio flows. India's growth premium vs EM peers provides fundamental support, though low beta limits upside.
INR steady with RBI support. Low beta limits upside but provides defensive positioning. Targeting 86.50.
BNP Paribas forecasts EUR/USD at 1.21 by Q4 2026 (5.2% higher vs current 1.15). Consistent with the report's broader thesis: "Gradual USD depreciation in an Expansion regime; EUR and high-yield EM lead, Asia FX lags". Bullish stance on EUR
Citi forecasts USD/MXN at 19.2 by Q4 2026 (4.3% lower vs current 18.4). Consistent with the report's broader thesis: "Out-of-consensus bullish USD; cyclical re-acceleration drives a stronger dollar through H1, fading into year-end". Bearish
Commerzbank forecasts AUD/USD at 0.71 by Q4 2026 (7.6% higher vs current 0.66). Consistent with the report's broader thesis: "USD under pressure on excessive Fed cuts and Fed independence concerns; EUR overvalued but USD overvaluation great
INR supported by improving portfolio flows and RBI policy shift. India growth premium provides fundamental support. Targeting 85.00.
Bullish MXN on carry, nearshoring flows, and USMCA resolution expectations. Positioning is clean after 2025 washout. Banxico's measured easing pace preserves carry advantage. MXN 13% YTD gain not overextended vs EM peers.
Latest bank commentary
THINK Ahead: Why an AI bust wouldn’t stop at tech
ing· gmail-imap·https://think.ing.com/opinions/think-ahead-why-an-ai-bust-wouldnt-stop-at-tech/
THINK Ahead: Why an AI bust wouldn’t stop at tech
ing· gmail-imap·https://think.ing.com/opinions/think-ahead-why-an-ai-bust-wouldnt-stop-at-tech/
THINK Ahead: Why an AI bust wouldn’t stop at tech
ing· ing-think·The stock market isn't the real economy. That's been a big lesson of the past one-and-a-half decades. So if the AI bubble really does explode on Wall Street, would it be a disaster for Main Street? James Smith argues that investment would take the strain and Europe would be bette
Tech and FX: short-term volatility may cloud long-term trend
ing· gmail-imap·https://think.ing.com/articles/tech-and-fx-short-term-volatility-may-cloud-long-term-trend/
Tech and FX: short-term volatility may cloud long-term trend
ing· gmail-imap·https://think.ing.com/articles/tech-and-fx-short-term-volatility-may-cloud-long-term-trend/
How have interest rate expectations changed after this week's event?
· investinglive-cb·Rate hikes by year-end RBNZ: 71 bps (71% probability of rate hike at the next meeting) ECB: 64 bps (98% probability of rate hike at the next meeting) BoJ: 43 bps (81% probability of rate hike at the next meeting) BoE: 41 bps (92% probability of no change at the next meeting) RBA:
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