Bank of Korea signals interest rate hikes are near

Bank of Korea holds at 2.50% but dot plot points firmly to rate hikes ahead

South Korea's central bank ready to turn hawkish as chip boom masks inflation pressure

The Bank of Korea (BOK) is poised to shift towards a hawkish monetary policy stance, as indicated by senior deputy governor Ryoo Sang-dai's recent comments. With economic growth tracking at no lower than 2.0% and inflation above 2.2%, the BOK is likely to signal interest rate hikes at its upcoming meeting on May 28 under new governor Shin Hyun-song. Per the full note [source], the ongoing chip export boom provides a buffer against inflationary pressures, yet the won's weakness at 17-year lows complicates the inflation landscape. This sets the stage for a significant policy pivot that could influence regional FX dynamics.

Bank of Korea preview - set to hold on Thursday (28 May) as rate hike bets build for Q3

Inflationary pressures mount in South Korea and Japan, raising rate hike odds

The recent commentary from ING highlights the growing inflationary pressures in South Korea and Japan, suggesting an increased likelihood of rate hikes from both central banks. Per the full note, consumer prices in South Korea surged by 3.5% in October year-on-year, marking a significant uptick that may compel the Bank of Korea to reconsider its current policy stance. Similarly, Japan's inflation rate has recently approached the Bank of Japan's target, prompting discussions around potential shifts in monetary policy. As we navigate the coming weeks, these developments could hold substantial implications for the JPY/KRW dynamics, particularly as market participants reassess their positions in light of a potential tightening cycle in East Asia.