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National Bank of Hungary Review: The door opens to change

Why surprisingly low Hungarian inflation could be a game changer

The unexpectedly low inflation rate in Hungary, falling to 1.8% in May from 2.1% in the previous month, has reshaped the outlook for monetary policy by the National Bank of Hungary (NBH). Per the full note [source], this new data shifts the conversation from the potential for rate cuts to the magnitude of those cuts, with analysts forecasting a possible reduction of either 25bps or 50bps at the upcoming meeting on June 23. This surprising softness signifies not only a rate cut would be likely but also that the broader economic impacts could lead to more aggressive dovish positioning from monetary authorities.