Newsquawk Week in Focus: NVDA earnings, UK, Canadian, Japanese and NZ inflation

Newsquawk Week Ahead: US NFP, ISM Services PMI, RBA, Canadian jobs and OPEC+

Lead — The desk anticipates a volatile week for FX markets, driven by key economic indicators and central bank decisions, particularly in the US and Australia. Per the full note [source], the focus will be on the US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) and ISM Services PMI, alongside the RBA's expected rate hike. The consensus is leaning towards a 25bps increase from the RBA, which would mark a third consecutive hike, reflecting persistent inflationary pressures. With the US jobs report due Friday, traders should brace for potential market shifts based on employment data and central bank signals.

Newsquawk Week in Focus: US Inflation and Retail Sales, Chinese inflation, Trump-Xi meet

Lead — The desk anticipates a volatile week ahead for FX markets, driven by key inflation data releases from the US and China, as well as significant geopolitical discussions between the US and China. Per the full note [source], the upcoming US CPI and retail sales figures are critical, especially following a hot March report that saw inflation rise to 3.3% Y/Y. The desk is particularly focused on how these data points will influence Fed policy amidst persistent inflationary pressures and a stable labor market.

Market outlook for the week of 11th - 15th May

Lead — The desk anticipates a cautious week ahead for FX markets, with key U.S. inflation data and central bank commentary likely to shape sentiment. Per the full note [source], the focus will be on U.S. core CPI, projected to rise to 0.3% m/m, amid concerns over rising energy and food prices due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. This backdrop suggests potential volatility in the USD, particularly against currencies like the AUD and GBP, as traders assess the implications for monetary policy. With the Fed Chair nomination vote also on the horizon, market dynamics could shift significantly based on the outcomes of these events.

Market outlook for the week of 18th - 22nd May