Newsquawk Week Ahead: US NFP, ISM Services PMI, RBA, Canadian jobs and OPEC+
At a Glance
Lead — The desk anticipates a volatile week for FX markets, driven by key economic indicators and central bank decisions, particularly in the US and Australia. Per the full note source, the focus will be on the US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) and ISM Services PMI, alongside the RBA's expected rate hike. The consensus is leaning towards a 25bps increase from the RBA, which would mark a third consecutive hike, reflecting persistent inflationary pressures. With the US jobs report due Friday, traders should brace for potential market shifts based on employment data and central bank signals.
Full Analysis
What the desk is arguing
The desk posits that upcoming economic data releases, particularly the US NFP and ISM Services PMI, will significantly influence FX market dynamics this week. Per the full note source, the RBA is expected to raise rates by 25bps, which could strengthen the AUD against its peers. Additionally, the US jobs report on Friday is anticipated to show a robust labor market, which could bolster the USD if the data exceeds expectations.
Supporting this view, the RBA's tightening bias is underscored by Westpac's forecast for a rate increase to 4.35%, driven by ongoing inflationary pressures and a tight labor market. The market currently prices in an 81% probability of a hike at the upcoming meeting, indicating strong expectations for policy action.
The alternative read would suggest that if the US jobs data disappoints, it could lead to a weaker USD, countering the anticipated strength from the RBA's actions and potentially impacting AUD/USD dynamics.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus target for AUD/USD is 1.075, with a range from 1.04 to 1.12. Specific firm targets include: - jpmorgan: 1.10 (Mar26) - bofa: 1.04 (Mar26) - citi: 1.12 (Mar26)
This view aligns closely with jpmorgan, which supports a bullish outlook on AUD/USD, while bofa presents a more cautious stance, sitting at the lower end of the consensus range.
How other firms see it
Firms like citi and jpmorgan are aligned in their bullish outlook on the AUD, anticipating that the RBA's actions will support the currency. Conversely, bofa holds a contrary view, expecting a weaker AUD due to potential headwinds from the US economic data.
Watch the AUD/USD trajectory closely, as it will likely reflect the RBA's rate path and the implications of the US jobs report on the broader USD strength.
What the calendar says
With the RBA policy announcement on Tuesday and the US jobs report on Friday, traders should prepare for significant volatility in the FX markets. These events will be pivotal in shaping market sentiment and positioning for the week ahead.
USD/JPY — All Desk Targets
| Firm | Stance | YE 2026 |
|---|---|---|
UOB | Bearish | 163.00 |
Citi | Bearish | 163.00 |
MUFG | Bullish | 146.00 |
From the original
Sun: OPEC+ Mon: Holiday: UK May Bank Holiday, Holiday: Japan's Greenery Day, Turkish Inflation (Apr), Global Manufacturing PMI (Apr), US Factory Orders (Mar) Tue: RBA Policy Announcement (May), BCB Minutes (Apr), Holiday: Japan's Children's Day, Swiss Inflation (Apr), US Building