Update on the Blockade and Japan’s FX Intervention

The Blockade, Supply Chains and Yields

Update on the blockade, Canada, Turkey and yields

Japan intervened in the FX market -- report

The desk views the recent intervention by Japan's Ministry of Finance as a critical juncture for the yen, particularly following its breach of 160 against the dollar. Per the full note [source], the intervention signals a heightened commitment to stabilize the currency amid geopolitical tensions and domestic economic pressures. The Bank of Japan's recent hawkish tilt, albeit tempered by cautious rhetoric from Governor Ueda, further complicates the outlook for the yen. With inflation expectations rising but growth forecasts downgraded, the market remains on edge, especially with oil prices surging due to the ongoing US-Iran conflict.

Global FX: Japan focus, US/China, PMIs, Fed/ECB

The desk anticipates a critical macro week for Japan, which could influence the USD/JPY trajectory and broader FX markets. Per the full note from J.P. Morgan, the focus is on upcoming economic indicators and central bank signals that may drive volatility in the yen. The U.S. Federal Reserve and European Central Bank's policy outlooks are also under scrutiny, especially in light of ongoing U.S.-China trade discussions that could impact risk sentiment. This week’s developments in Japan will be pivotal, particularly as the market awaits key data releases that could shift expectations around monetary policy.