EUR/USD Price Forecast: Trades near 1.1650 as bulls look to extends gains above 23.6% Fibo.
The EUR/USD currently trades around 1.1650, with bulls targeting gains above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level. This technical indicator suggests that upward momentum could be gaining traction, making it a pivotal moment for traders. With the pair's current position below our consensus forecast of 1.1700 for March 2026, market participants are closely watching for confirmation or retracement in the wake of bullish sentiment outlined in recent analysis.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target sits at 1.1700 (median across 11 firms), with Goldman at the high end of the spectrum (1.1800) and Citi at the lower end (1.1300). The current market price reflects a divergence from these forecasts, indicating potential undervaluation or a market waiting for more bullish catalysts.
How firms align
Goldman, JPMorgan, and MUFG position themselves confidently with targets of 1.1800 to 1.2100 for March 2026, suggesting alignment with bullish sentiment as noted by the headline. In contrast, Citi remains at the lower end with a more cautious target of 1.1300, hinting at a bearish outlook compared to the prevailing market sentiment.
What the data shows
Recent upgrades from several firms highlight a general optimism around the EUR/USD pair, particularly from Commerzbank and ING, both now forecasting 1.1900 for March 2026. Insight from our research reveals that the EUR/USD is positioned 3.2% below the Dec-26 consensus, indicating potential for a catch-up rally as the market aligns with these bullish forecasts.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01EUR/USD currently around 1.1650, bulls eyeing Fibonacci resistance.
- 02Watch technical indicators for potential bullish breakout.
- 03Consensus target is 1.1700, signaling potential for upward movement.
- 04Increased forecasts suggest a shifting sentiment towards the Euro.
Market implications
Focus on upcoming economic data releases from the Eurozone, particularly inflation figures, which could drive the EUR/USD closer to the 1.1700 consensus. Any decisive break above the 23.6% Fibonacci level would further solidify bullish positioning.
Risks to this view
A reversal could be triggered by stronger-than-expected U.S. economic data, indicating a possibility of the Federal Reserve maintaining a hawkish stance, which could bolster the USD against the Euro.
Sentiment by currency
USD-EUR+JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: -0.30
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
Euro: Limited downside against US Dollar with ECB hike message – MUFG
ECB's continued hike messaging supports EUR/USD floor around current levels; limited downside signals reduced momentum for USD longs.
Euro: Gains capped against US Dollar by Fed story – ING
Fed rate expectations remain supportive of USD strength, structurally limiting EUR/USD upside despite recent euro resilience.
EUR/USD Price Forecast: 20-day EMA remains key barrier as Iran uncertainty persists
Euro slips as Hormuz firefight revives US Dollar demand
Geopolitical risk in Persian Gulf elevates safe-haven demand, likely to support USD/JPY parity and cap EUR/USD downside until tensions clarify.
Bank desks on this topic
FX Daily: Iran fall-out coming home to roost in EUR/USD
https://think.ing.com/articles/fx-daily-iran-fall-out-coming-home-to-roost-in-eur-usd/
FX Daily: Iran fall-out coming home to roost in EUR/USD
https://think.ing.com/articles/fx-daily-iran-fall-out-coming-home-to-roost-in-eur-usd/
FX Daily: Iran fall-out coming home to roost in EUR/USD
EUR/USD was hit in March on expectations that the stagflationary shock from Iran would resonate more in Europe than the US. The inflationary effects have been plain for all to see, but this week's release of European PMIs warns that the stagnationary effect is just starting to la
Morgan Stanley: How Much Will FX Hedging Flows Boost EUR/USD? - eFXdata
Morgan Stanley: How Much Will FX Hedging Flows Boost EUR/USD? eFXdata
Cross-firm research
EUR/USD Trades 3.16% Below Dec-26 Consensus as 18 Firms Hold 1.20 Median
With spot at 1.1621 and the 18-firm median Dec-26 target at 1.20, EUR/USD sits 3.16% below consensus—a gap that demands explanation.
EUR/USD Trades 3.2% Below Dec-26 Consensus as Targets Cluster Near 1.20
Spot at 1.1612 sits 3.2% below the 18-firm median Dec-26 target of 1.20, exposing a consensus that remains structurally bullish EUR despite the pair's failure to close the gap.
EUR/USD Trades 4% Below Dec-26 Consensus: What the Gap Reveals
EUR/USD spot at 1.1711 sits 4.01% below the eight-firm median Dec-26 target of 1.22, exposing a structural tension between macro conviction and current tape.