EUR/USD Price Forecast: Starts the US NFP week cautiously
The EUR/USD currency pair is treading cautiously ahead of the US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) data scheduled for later this week, with current trading around 1.1500. This stability may reflect market players' uncertainty in the face of potential economic fluctuations that could be revealed in upcoming employment figures. Despite recent positive developments in the Eurozone, traders appear to be adopting a wait-and-see approach, weighing the impact of the NFP release on USD strength and any resulting volatility in EUR/USD.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target stands at 1.1700 for March 2026, with projections ranging from 1.1300 to 1.2000 across various firms. Notably, JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs provide upper targets of 1.1800 and 1.2000 respectively, positioning towards the higher end of the market spectrum.
How firms align
JPMorgan (1.1800), Goldman (1.1800), and MUFG (1.1800) align closely with the cautious view presented, suggesting a stable outlook but not overly bullish. Conversely, Citi's target of 1.1300 indicates a more bearish perspective, signaling potential downside risks if the USD unexpectedly strengthens. Detailed views can be found in our research on these firms: /reports/jpmorgan, /reports/goldman, and /reports/citi.
What the data shows
Recent revisions have nudged targets slightly higher, with Morgan Stanley updating its March target to 1.2000, reflecting a shift in sentiment. Our ongoing research outlines how EUR/USD currently trades 3.16% below the December 2026 consensus, indicating a significant divergence that may prompt traders to reassess their positions; see our insights in /research/eurusd-divergence-consensus-vs-spot-may-2026.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01EUR/USD currently trades at 1.1500 as markets await US NFP data.
- 02Prepare for potential volatility around NFP release; levels above 1.1700 may face resistance.
- 03Consider targets from firms like JPMorgan (1.1800) for potential upside scenarios.
- 04Bearish stance from Citi may highlight downside risks that need monitoring.
Market implications
Traders should closely monitor the 1.1700 level ahead of the upcoming NFP print, as a decisive break could set the tone for the pair going forward. The result of the employment numbers could lead to either a stronger USD or a bounce in EUR, influencing market sentiment significantly.
Risks to this view
The outlook could quickly reverse if the NFP data comes in substantially stronger than anticipated, suggesting resilience in the US labor market and prompting a bullish sentiment shift for the dollar. Any positive revisions in employment statistics could lead to a sharp sell-off in the euro.
Sentiment by currency
USD~EUR~JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: +0.00
Sources & References
How we cover this story
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