EUR/USD: ECB message to anchor pair – ING
ING argues that the ECB's messaging will act as an anchor for EUR/USD, preventing significant downside despite the current spot at 1.15. While ING does not provide explicit targets in the headline, our internal consensus shows a bullish bias with a median of 1.18 for March 2026. The pair's persistent trade below consensus, as highlighted in our research, suggests market skepticism about the EUR recovery story. ING's framing reinforces the view that ECB policy guidance is a key driver, but the divergence between spot and consensus warrants attention.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target sits at 1.18 for March 2026 (median across 8 firms), with Morgan Stanley at the upper bound (1.20) and BofA/Barclays at the lower (1.17). The current spot of 1.15 is 3.87% below the consensus, a gap we highlighted in our research '/research/eurusd-consensus-divergence-may-2026'. ING's view that the ECB will anchor the pair aligns more closely with the majority of firms, which see gradual appreciation toward 1.18-1.22 by year-end 2026.
How firms align
ING's own target of 1.19 for March 2026 sits near the consensus median, consistent with their anchoring narrative. JPMorgan and Goldman are similarly aligned with targets of 1.18, while Morgan Stanley's 1.20 is more bullish. In contrast, BofA and Barclays at 1.17 are more cautious, possibly anticipating less ECB support.
What the data shows
Our research 'EUR/USD Consensus at 1.22 While Spot Sits 3.87% Below' underscores the disconnect between median forecasts (1.22 for Dec26) and current levels. Most firms expect a gradual grind higher, but the wide range (1.16 at Morgan Stanley Dec26 vs 1.25 at Goldman/Deutsche Bank) reflects uncertainty about ECB's ability to deliver hawkish guidance.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01ECB messaging is expected to anchor EUR/USD, limiting downside from 1.15.
- 02Consensus median of 1.18 for Mar26 implies ~2.6% upside from spot.
- 03Morgan Stanley's Dec26 target at 1.16 is outlier bearish; Goldman at 1.25 bullish.
- 04Watch ECB rhetoric for confirmation of hawkish stance to close spot-consensus gap.
Market implications
Focus on ECB speeches and minutes for validation of the anchoring narrative. If ECB signals a more cautious stance, EUR/USD could test the 1.14 support before any recovery toward consensus targets. The 1.18 level is the immediate resistance aligned with many March 2026 targets.
Risks to this view
A dovish ECB surprise would invalidate the anchoring view, potentially driving EUR/USD below 1.14. Conversely, a hawkish shift could spark a rapid catch-up toward 1.18, forcing short-covering.
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
EUR/USD strengthens as mixed US labor data and hopes for a US-Iran deal pressure the Greenback.
Soft US labor print reduces Fed rate-hike conviction; geopolitical risk-off from Iran talks risk-off flows weaken USD safe-haven demand.
EUR/USD: Recovery eyes full retracement – Scotiabank
EUR/USD recovery momentum suggests technicians are positioning for mean reversion toward recent highs, indicating potential USD weakness into resistance.
EUR/USD: Binary path around Gulf deal – ING
EUR/USD: Oil shock, real rates and conflict risks – Commerzbank
Oil shock transmission via real rates and geopolitical premium widens USD carry advantage; EUR structural support erodes as terminal rates diverge.
Cross-firm research
EUR/USD Trades 3.87% Below Consensus: What the Gap Reveals
EUR/USD spot at 1.1727 sits 3.87% below the eight-firm median Dec-26 target of 1.22, exposing a structural divergence that demands explanation.
EUR/USD Consensus at 1.22 While Spot Sits 3.87% Below
Eight sell-side firms hold a median Dec-26 target of 1.22 for EUR/USD while spot trades at 1.1727, a gap that demands explanation.