EUR/USD: Heavy tone with downside risks – ING
ING's bearish EUR/USD call highlights deteriorating technicals and downside momentum, with the pair currently at 1.1500. The firm notes that a break below key support could accelerate shorts, aligning with the composite sentiment score of 0.65 (USD bullish, EUR bearish). This view contrasts with the broader consensus of 1.18 for March 2026, suggesting near-term weakness may persist. ING's stance is notable given their own March 2026 target of 1.19, indicating a tactical bearish tilt despite a medium-term bullish forecast.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target for March 2026 sits at 1.18 (median across 8 firms), with Morgan Stanley at the upper bound (1.20) and BofA and Barclays at the lower (1.17). ING's bearish call aligns more closely with the lower third of the consensus range, as their own March target of 1.19 is just above the median but reflects near-term downside risks.
How firms align
ING's bearish view is supported by JPMorgan and Goldman, both targeting 1.18 for March 2026, close to the consensus median. Conversely, Morgan Stanley's March target of 1.20 is the most bullish, suggesting contrarian upside. BofA and Barclays share ING's cautious tone with targets at 1.17, the lowest in the consensus.
What the data shows
Our recent research, "EUR/USD Consensus at 1.22 While Spot Sits 3.87% Below" (slug: /research/eurusd-consensus-divergence-may-2026), highlights the disconnect between spot and consensus, reinforcing ING's view that near-term risks are skewed to the downside. The composite sentiment score of 0.65 (USD bullish) further supports the bearish momentum.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01ING sees downside risks for EUR/USD with deteriorating technicals; a break below 1.15 could accelerate shorts.
- 02Consensus March 2026 target is 1.18, but spot at 1.1500 is 2.5% below; near-term bearish bias aligns with lower firm targets.
- 03Watch for a test of 1.14 support; a close below could open 1.12.
- 04Contrarian risk: Morgan Stanley's bullish 1.20 March target argues for a rebound.
Market implications
Traders should watch for a break of the 1.1500 support level, which could trigger a move to 1.1400. The next key event is the ECB meeting on Jan 25, where hawkish guidance could counter ING's bearish view. Our consensus March target of 1.18 suggests the selloff may be overdone, offering potential for mean reversion.
Risks to this view
A stronger-than-expected US GDP print or hawkish Fed minutes could validate ING's bearish view. However, a dovish ECB surprise or a swift resolution to geopolitical tensions could reverse the downside momentum and push EUR/USD back toward 1.18.
Sentiment by currency
USD+EUR-JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: +0.65
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
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Soft US labor print reduces Fed rate-hike conviction; geopolitical risk-off from Iran talks risk-off flows weaken USD safe-haven demand.
EUR/USD: Recovery eyes full retracement – Scotiabank
EUR/USD recovery momentum suggests technicians are positioning for mean reversion toward recent highs, indicating potential USD weakness into resistance.
EUR/USD: Binary path around Gulf deal – ING
EUR/USD: Oil shock, real rates and conflict risks – Commerzbank
Oil shock transmission via real rates and geopolitical premium widens USD carry advantage; EUR structural support erodes as terminal rates diverge.
Cross-firm research
EUR/USD Trades 3.87% Below Consensus: What the Gap Reveals
EUR/USD spot at 1.1727 sits 3.87% below the eight-firm median Dec-26 target of 1.22, exposing a structural divergence that demands explanation.
EUR/USD Consensus at 1.22 While Spot Sits 3.87% Below
Eight sell-side firms hold a median Dec-26 target of 1.22 for EUR/USD while spot trades at 1.1727, a gap that demands explanation.