EUR/USD hesitates at 1.1700 after mixed Eurozone PMI figures
EUR/USD stalled around 1.1700 after mixed Eurozone PMI data, with manufacturing weakness offsetting services strength. The pair remains well below our consensus median of 1.1800 for Mar26, highlighting a persistent divergence between spot and analyst expectations. The mixed PMIs underscore the uneven recovery, keeping the ECB's policy path uncertain and capping EUR upside for now. This hesitation at key resistance suggests the market is awaiting clearer directional cues, possibly from upcoming US data or ECB guidance.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target for Mar26 sits at 1.1800 (median across 8 firms), with Morgan Stanley at the upper bound (1.2000) and BofA at the lower (1.1700). Current spot at 1.1500 is roughly 2.6% below consensus, reflecting persistent bearish sentiment. The headline's hesitation at 1.1700 aligns closely with BofA's conservative view, while the broader consensus expects a recovery above that level by Q1 2026.
How firms align
BofA and Barclays, both with Mar26 targets at 1.1700, are most aligned with the current stalling pattern. Morgan Stanley's aggressive 1.2000 target and ING's 1.1900 stand out as more bullish, suggesting they anticipate a sharper rebound. The mixed PMIs support the cautious camp, as manufacturing headwinds could delay the convergence toward higher targets.
What the data shows
Our recent research (/research/eurusd-consensus-divergence-may-2026) highlights that EUR/USD consensus at 1.22 for Dec26 contrasts with spot 3.87% below, implying significant expected appreciation. The mixed PMI data, however, introduces downside risk to that outlook if the manufacturing weakness persists and spreads to services.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01EUR/USD stalled at 1.1700 resistance after mixed Eurozone PMIs, with manufacturing contraction offsetting services expansion.
- 02Spot at 1.1500 is 2.6% below consensus Mar26 target of 1.1800, indicating persistent bearish positioning.
- 03BofA and Barclays hold the most bearish Mar26 targets at 1.1700, aligning with the current price action.
- 04Morgan Stanley's 1.2000 target represents the most aggressive bullish view, betting on a sharp reversal.
Market implications
Next focus is on US data, particularly ISM manufacturing and payrolls, which could break the 1.1700 stalemate. A break above 1.1700 would open the path toward our consensus 1.1800, while a rejection could see a retest of 1.1500 support. The ECB's October meeting will be key for forward guidance.
Risks to this view
A stronger-than-expected US jobs report could push EUR/USD below 1.1500, invalidating the bullish consensus. Conversely, sustained weakness in US data could trigger a rapid rally above 1.1700, catching bears offside.
Sentiment by currency
USD~EUR~JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: +0.00
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
EUR/USD strengthens as mixed US labor data and hopes for a US-Iran deal pressure the Greenback.
Soft US labor print reduces Fed rate-hike conviction; geopolitical risk-off from Iran talks risk-off flows weaken USD safe-haven demand.
EUR/USD: Recovery eyes full retracement – Scotiabank
EUR/USD recovery momentum suggests technicians are positioning for mean reversion toward recent highs, indicating potential USD weakness into resistance.
EUR/USD: Binary path around Gulf deal – ING
EUR/USD: Oil shock, real rates and conflict risks – Commerzbank
Oil shock transmission via real rates and geopolitical premium widens USD carry advantage; EUR structural support erodes as terminal rates diverge.
Cross-firm research
EUR/USD Trades 3.87% Below Consensus: What the Gap Reveals
EUR/USD spot at 1.1727 sits 3.87% below the eight-firm median Dec-26 target of 1.22, exposing a structural divergence that demands explanation.
EUR/USD Consensus at 1.22 While Spot Sits 3.87% Below
Eight sell-side firms hold a median Dec-26 target of 1.22 for EUR/USD while spot trades at 1.1727, a gap that demands explanation.